Kentucky Derby Future Wager

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Even with just 23 entries, some horses go off at over 100-1. With 400+ entries, we will have many 1000-1 horses and probably a few 10000-1 horses. A 10000-1 horse would have something like $30 on it going into the last day. Another $150 bet in the last few hours would change that dramatically If you had bet $5 in the hope of seeing a monster $50,000 payday, you would be disappointed to get only $12,500. With half the betting coming on the last day, drops like this will be common.

With 24 betting interests, the last day's betting is reasonably uniform, with the exception of horses that run on the Saturday of the weekend. With 400+ betting interests, the odds will be flying all over the place.

--Dunbar

Your math is probably correct, but I don't think wild odds swings would be as rampant as you are suggesting. Any horse with only $30 bet on it going into the last day isn't going to attract much attention, even at 10,000-1.