Kentucky Derby Future Wager

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

allow for exacta wagering to spice this tired thing up.

that would be nice, but what if you bet a 9 / 15 exacta and the 15 is scratched?

[NTamm1215]

I can tell you this much, I'm going to Vegas this weekend and wouldn't mind finding some horses to throw a few bucks on and I'll carry my ass to Wynn to do it. A Derby Future Wager with 24 betting interests is a joke.

Something has to be done to spice it up, just as Steve said.

NT

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I can tell you this much, I'm going to Vegas this weekend and wouldn't mind finding some horses to throw a few bucks on and I'll carry my ass to Wynn to do it. A Derby Future Wager with 24 betting interests is a joke.

Something has to be done to spice it up, just as Steve said.

NT

Any idea who you're going to use?

I'd be curious (don't laugh!) about the odds on Poltergeist but don't tell anyone.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Any idea who you're going to use?

I'd be curious (don't laugh!) about the odds on Poltergeist but don't tell anyone.

There's a few I have my eye on, like Patena is available at Lucky's at 75-1. He's only 40-1 at Wynn. Soul Warrior is 200-1 but that will change after the Risen Star.

If you want to see the most updated odds go to Dave Tuley's viewfromvegas.com and on the main racebook notes page he should have a link to the lucky's and Wynn odds.

NT

[philcski]

The only 'technical issue' I see in my proposal is listing the willpays before the pool closes- and early on in the betting there will be some odd results with $0 wagered on most of the interests- because most tracks don't have the capability of displaying trifecta willpays. However, with a competent linemaker estimating probables it wouldn't be an issue because whether a name closes at 100-1 or 125-1 isn't a huge deal to 99% of players this would attract.

What they could do as an alternative to showing every name on a rolling basis is show the top 25 or so that have taken the most money and odds on those.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

The only 'technical issue' I see in my proposal is listing the willpays before the pool closes- and early on in the betting there will be some odd results with $0 wagered on most of the interests- because most tracks don't have the capability of displaying trifecta willpays. However, with a competent linemaker estimating probables it wouldn't be an issue because whether a name closes at 100-1 or 125-1 isn't a huge deal to 99% of players this would attract.

What they could do as an alternative to showing every name on a rolling basis is show the top 25 or so that have taken the most money and odds on those.

Even with just 23 entries, some horses go off at over 100-1. With 400+ entries, we will have many 1000-1 horses and probably a few 10000-1 horses. A 10000-1 horse would have something like $30 on it going into the last day. Another $150 bet in the last few hours would change that dramatically If you had bet $5 in the hope of seeing a monster $50,000 payday, you would be disappointed to get only $12,500. With half the betting coming on the last day, drops like this will be common.

With 24 betting interests, the last day's betting is reasonably uniform, with the exception of horses that run on the Saturday of the weekend. With 400+ betting interests, the odds will be flying all over the place.

--Dunbar

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Even with just 23 entries, some horses go off at over 100-1. With 400+ entries, we will have many 1000-1 horses and probably a few 10000-1 horses. A 10000-1 horse would have something like $30 on it going into the last day. Another $150 bet in the last few hours would change that dramatically If you had bet $5 in the hope of seeing a monster $50,000 payday, you would be disappointed to get only $12,500. With half the betting coming on the last day, drops like this will be common.

With 24 betting interests, the last day's betting is reasonably uniform, with the exception of horses that run on the Saturday of the weekend. With 400+ betting interests, the odds will be flying all over the place.

--Dunbar

Your math is probably correct, but I don't think wild odds swings would be as rampant as you are suggesting. Any horse with only $30 bet on it going into the last day isn't going to attract much attention, even at 10,000-1.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Any idea who you're going to use?

I'd be curious (don't laugh!) about the odds on Poltergeist but don't tell anyone.

I've made about 10 sucker, I mean "future" bets this year in Vegas at the Wynn. Most recently, I got Poltergeist at 125-1, which was Monday night.
As long as there's value, I'll take a shot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

that would be nice, but what if you bet a 9 / 15 exacta and the 15 is scratched?

Like all future wagers, if your horse doesn't run you lose.

[GPK]

I'm fairly certain if I look long enough, I can still find my uncashed future wager on Rockport Harbor

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by GPK

I'm fairly certain if I look long enough, I can still find my uncashed future wager on Rockport Harbor

LOL... I think I've still got my $100 "Rocky" future ticket.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by smuthg

LOL... I think I've still got my $100 "Rocky" future ticket.

I still have my Flashy Bull ticket but, sadly, don't know what happened to the one for Itsallaboutthechase.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I still have my Flashy Bull ticket but, sadly, don't know what happened to the one for Itsallaboutthechase.

Figured you for a Soul Warrior fan this year with his dam being the same as your beloved namesake.

NT

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Figured you for a Soul Warrior fan this year with his dam being the same as your beloved namesake.

NT

Oh! Thanks for the heads up. I'm a pedigree moron and so didn't know but will keep an eye on that one!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I still have my Flashy Bull ticket but, sadly, don't know what happened to the one for Itsallaboutthechase.

Oh my god thank you for that. I feel immediately better about the Cowboy Cal ticket hanging on my fridge.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Oh my god thank you for that. I feel immediately better about the Cowboy Cal ticket hanging on my fridge.

Not my finest moment...

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by smuthg

LOL... I think I've still got my $100 "Rocky" future ticket.

I found mine, right next to my Lawyer Ron future ticket.