This One's for Phil goes nuts...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Does this mean you are in full accord that Dutrow's miraclous "move up" isn't exactly explictable with sheet interpetation? Horse made a bunch of starts and had a decent race or two and now low and behold is running better G1 beyers... maybe the horse just likes South Beach or maybe it was the South Beach diet?

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

I would assume DT has contacted him to do some "THAT" special training...Why not deal with the very very best? Don't answer that one Steve its loaded

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

i hear he has a good dentist...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I am interested to know Dunkirk's figure (7F, 1:25). I read Haskin's report for Bloodhorse on his Saturday debut, and it was his opinion that the track was playing slowly for the first five races on Saturday. I remembered that sentence after I read BTW's opinion that there was no evidence of a change in condition warranting a split variant.

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48930.htm?id=48930

77

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I am interested to know Dunkirk's figure (7F, 1:25). I read Haskin's report for Bloodhorse on his Saturday debut, and it was his opinion that the track was playing slowly for the first five races on Saturday. I remembered that sentence after I read BTW's opinion that there was no evidence of a change in condition warranting a split variant.

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48930.htm?id=48930

Hmmm...Haskin vs Serling and Beyer? I know which opinion I would give the most weight.

[cmorioles]

OK, lets be objective and see how the card looked. First, 2 of the first 5 were on turf, so we'll ignore those.

Race 1: Radio Relay wins and gets an 81 Beyer. In five previous starts, the horse never bettered 60. The runner up had run high 70s a few times, so it probably makes sense RR improved a lot.

Race 3: Indy's Sonata, Run All Day, and Won Token battle it to the wire and get a 69 Beyer. Two were first time starters, while Run All Day had three starts on surfaces other than dirt, had run mid 60s. It can be argued that if anything, turf and synthetic figures are a little inflated when the figures are that low. The race is a crapshoot, but it is tough to argue for a much higher figure.

Race 5: 1ster Dunkirk romps and gets a 77. He beats another 1ster and Spanish Fortune, a second time starter that Beyered 53 first out. The figure given means despite getting dusted, he improved to a 61.

If you split the variant there, you have to increase the figures of the three races mentioned, or decrease the later three dirt races. While the 7th is a very fast race, if the track had indeed sped up, it is really tough to explain the times and figures you would have to give the last two races.