Most Powerful Handicapping Angles

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One session is all about trip handicapping, which really could warrant an entire course in itself. We usually do it towards the end of the course so we can apply the pace discussion among other things.

I remember I spent my sophomore year in college doing nothing but trip handicapping. I used to schedule my classes to optimize my time spent on Belmont Park. I had classes all day on Tues/Thurs, and can specifically remember getting caught handicapping the Friday card during "Communication Development in Children" on a Thursday evening.

See, when I was a kid, my Dad would just put his foot in my ass and tell me to go outside and play. Now that is teaching communication development in children!!

[declansharbor]

The cutback/stretchout is my favorite.(ex. Today @ Gulfstream R10-More Than Willing...chalk but still) I also like the class drop/hike.(class hike off the positive trainer switch is a good one) As Kev said, positive trainer switch is pretty much a given. One red flag for me in the claiming races, is never bet/key a horse in top position that's not in for full claiming price. I would also like to see steady works for the horse Im going to bet. Follow these rules and you can be a loser at the windows just like me.

[2MinsToPost]

A topic that I have made my goal to learn as much as possible about this year -

The difference in tracks. A classic current example is Calder versus Gulfstream. The deep Calder racing surface versus Gulfstream. In addition, the difference between Aqueducts Inner and Main, the long stretch at Churchill etc and how it affects the way you cap a past performance in relation to the track it is being run at.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

A topic that I have made my goal to learn as much as possible about this year -

The difference in tracks. A classic current example is Calder versus Gulfstream. The deep Calder racing surface versus Gulfstream. In addition, the difference between Aqueducts Inner and Main, the long stretch at Churchill etc and how it affects the way you cap a past performance in relation to the track it is being run at.

I don't think the specific track matters as much as the biases that go along with them. But obviously those could change daily if not hourly due to weather and other factors.

[Travis Stone]

The positive trainer change is huge, good call.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't think the specific track matters as much as the biases that go along with them. But obviously those could change daily if not hourly due to weather and other factors.

I'm thinking more along the lines of the difference in track shape and surface. Classic example in play now with all the Calder shippers at Gulfstream. Calder has a deep sandy surface compared to Gulfstreams. The layout of the track, how wide are the turns, how long is the frontstretch etc.. When you tie this in to post positions, etc I feel it plays a role.

[Scav]

Where in the world is their a handicapping close at a community college? That has to be one of the coolest college credit EVAH...

Possible online course becuase I will join.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where in the world is their a handicapping close at a community college? That has to be one of the coolest college credit EVAH...

Possible online course becuase I will join.

off topic but my college degree includes credits for "geography of wine" (included wine tasting) for a science credit, "history of sex" for a social science credit, and a course that compared classic american film with the actual historical events they were based on for another social science credit.

as it turned out learning about the institution of pederasty in ancient greece wasn't the titillation i expected and the wine class was way tougher than i thought.

[Habersham000]

I pay a lot of attention to front wraps....I will never bet a horse first time running with front wraps....also when a horse races with front wraps off for the first time in a series of races I like to take a long look at the horse...

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I'm thinking more along the lines of the difference in track shape and surface. Classic example in play now with all the Calder shippers at Gulfstream. Calder has a deep sandy surface compared to Gulfstreams. The layout of the track, how wide are the turns, how long is the frontstretch etc.. When you tie this in to post positions, etc I feel it plays a role.

It might play a role but I think it is very very minor. When it comes to capping there is so much information out there already, that adding this to the process may just be overkill. Also when I think of track layouts and the turns, I think that's the type of information that jockeys have to be more aware of than handicappers.

[miraja2]

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

Seen that one work many times...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

I think this is an excellent one and one that is often overlooked. The first horses that came to my mind were Commentator and Lion Heart.

Along the lines of studying people, I'd like to point out one that I used to use a long time ago. Back in his heyday, when he was running multiple horses all over the country, I'd love to find out where Wayne Lukas was. Wayne loves the camera and so my thinking was that he'd be where he thought he had the best chance of getting his picture taken and being on tv. The better he was dressed, the more I figured he liked his chances.

[wac]

1)The best angle ive ever come across is a 2nd time on the turf with good breeding if the horse showed any interest at all 1st time on it. Would prefer to be route/route but sometimes a turf spring to route works. I have never cashed a bunch of tickets but that one has led me to some good payouts

2)i have NO numbers to really back it up is a smart strike colt or filly 1st time on turf. I have no numbers as to what they hit just seems like they do good 1st time out.

3)Unusual Heat fillies/mares on the grass. ONce again i have no real numbers but im sure someone on here can give specifics.

Im definitley a novice but those have led to the best tickets that ive ever cashed.

[jballscalls]

2 routes back to a sprint---Double Bubble Angle
2nd time routing when they were competetive but faded through the lane.
wide through a slow pace.

thats all for now, MORE TO COME

[letswastemoney]

Look for a horse that is returning to its favorite surface.

Also, look for a horse that is popular at the claim box. I mean...if a horse gets claimed 3 times in a row...there must be something about that horse right?

[packerbacker7964]

I like when a 1st out winner skips the next condition. All be it with the right trainer but moves like that show they have great reviews on the horse.

[swedejxn]

the obvious for me is trainer % you just have some trainers that are just good at placing their horses.... trainer/jock is an added plus..... look at owner stats too.... when I do not have time to cap and there is a contest or something.... i will just go with these and usually finish top third of the contest...

my favorite NON-EDUCATED angle is using the the next widest horse when a single horse scratches.... Amazingly about 60% ITM (lets say I cap
Friday .... pick my horses.... one I like scratches... sub the next higher post....of course only when in my top 6)

I love turf and 1 mile plus races.... pace plays into it more.... if I see 3 horses that may go for the lead.... I play a trifecta box 4 horses...
play the best stamina horse and 3 closers... positive roi on these races...

next time I am over in Bossier I will let you know... live in Jackson but spent about 4 years in 'Port back in the ardoin/snyder/and occasionally Day era...... just easier to go to NO.... put out a tip sheet when I was over though.... sold lumber to most of the farms and got some great insight to the game....