Morning Line

[dean smith]

Once again, I'm not trying to ruffle anyone's feathers...

But what point are you trying to make about GG #3?

Yeah, chances were the 8/1 ML on #6 was going to go down since it's a seven horse field (two being coupled) with a scratch (leaving five betting choices)! And as I said earlier, the 6/5 ML fav did go lower (3/5 w/ Baze aboard -- no surprise there). The second choice stayed at 5/2, and the third choice went to 6/1 (from 4/1). Your boy #6 was liked more than the other 8/1, who took the place of the longshot who scratched.

So... the morning line had the correct short-odds fav, was dead-on with the second choice at 5/2, and in the ballpark with the third choice. As for it being a bad line, I don't know. Your boy #6 finished fifth, a length and a half behind the other ML 8/1, who went to post with longer odds but finished fourth.

Seems like a pretty good line to me that pretty well reflected the public's opinion. I sense you getting frustrated with me, but tell me what I'm missing.

[dean smith]

And let me repeat: Please don't think I'm trying to declare that the ML is always 100% accurate, but I don't think there can really be any doubt that it steers wagered money in certain directions.

[dean smith]

And also please understand: I'm not trying to crusade for the abolishment of morning lines. I think they're goddamned wonderful! I hope one day my daughter marries a morning line maker! I simply cannot say enough good things about morning lines! If lovin' morning lines is wrong, then I don't wanna be right! Etc. The only reason this thread even exists is because the subject of bad morning lines came up on the show and I was dumb enough to call in and ask a question that I've often wondered: In a parimutual system in which the odds are dictated by where the public bets their money, what is the purpose of having a morning line if it's meaningless other than to provide a cheat sheet for the public?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'd like to see you and Roller Doc argue about something. My head might explode watching it, but it'd be worth it.

[dean smith]

Why would I want to argue with Roller Doc?

He sounds like a great, great man.