Morning Line

[dean smith]

I was the guy who made that call, and my whole point was this:

What is the reason for a morning line in a parimutual wagering system? Basically, it would seem to me, that the person who sets the morning line has already gone about handicapping the race and the morning line serves as his "picks" from one to however many the field has. The only thing that results from this is that the public will generally follow these "guidelines" and bets accordingly. I think this obviously screws a good handicapper -- who would probably come to the same conclusions that the ML setter would (who's probably a good handicapper). You can say the betting public dictates the final odds all you want, but anyone who has ever watched a tote board knows that, conservatively, 90% of all final odds fall right into line with the ML. Don't believe me? Watch it happen damn near every time. A 4-1 MLer that's 6-1 with three minutes to post the (very) vast majority of the time will end up 4-1 or, at best, 9-2 when the windows close. Most of the time, the only instances of the final odds deviating any noticeable amount from the morning line odds are with the favorite (a 2-1 ML fav may drop as low as, say, 4-5 or even money) and with the hopeless 20 and 30-1 longshots (who usually end up a bit longer, making for your 40 and 50-1s). The only reason I can think of for this phenomenom is people watching the tote, knowing what the ML odds are ("they have to be right on, like a point spread, right?"), and then betting what they believe to be "nice" prices -- like the said 6-1/4-1 example. Yes, they are defeating their own purpose by betting these horses and driving the odds back down, but how can it be argued that morning lines don't point the lazy or unskilled handicapper in the right direction? Morning lines basically say, "here is how the horses stack up to each other and here is how they are ranked based on their past performances. We've gone to the trouble of doing the majority of the handicapping for you. Now, the best of you can hope to cash in on shorter prices than you'd get if the general public wasn't made aware of who the contenders are."

Without morning lines, I'm betting that you'd see favorites still go low (the public will follow the early, "smart" money -- everybody likes to play it safe and cash winning tickets), and the rest of the field would offer a lot more 8-1 and 10-1 prices on horses with legitimate shots.

I don't know. I'm a relative newcomer to the game -- I've only been seriously handicapping for a few years -- but I've read every book and obsessively absorbed everything I could, and this is just the way I see it.

[hi_im_god]

morning lines are someones guess at where the sheep will graze.

i don't know how it works at smaller tracks but the idea that large numbers of sheep are actually influenced by a single individuals guess at where they eat is mistaken.

i've seen too many golden gate 20-1 m/l's go off as 4-5 favorites to think otherwise. by their 2nd visit to the track most people can figure out that not all morning lines are created equally.

[dean smith]

I may have exaggerated just how exact final odds end up to morning line odds, but it just seems to me that if a horse is 20/1 in the ML, he's going to wind up somewhere in that range at post time, if he's 8/1 he's going to wind up in that 6/1-10/1 third or fourth choice grouping, etc. If you are truly seeing all sorts of 20/1s going off at 4/5, then I'd have to ask you what color the sky is in your world.

Just kidding. You know you're the man. But don't you think the morning line affects your personal handicapping? I think it does mine. Isn't that what we come to a lot of our decisions by? I find myself more willing to give a 20/1 ML the brush in a Pick 3 or 4 for instance, where I might give a 4/1 ML a second look if I didn't like him the first time just because he's 4/1 and I want to find out what I'm missing.

Maybe I'm way out in left field and the whole world is laughing at me, but that's my theory which is based on nothing more than my comparitively limited observation: The ML has a lot to do with how the final odds shake out, and if the ML did not exist, final odds may be radically different.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by dean smith

I may have exaggerated just how exact final odds end up to morning line odds, but it just seems to me that if a horse is 20/1 in the ML, he's going to wind up somewhere in that range at post time, if he's 8/1 he's going to wind up in that 6/1-10/1 third or fourth choice grouping, etc. If you are truly seeing all sorts of 20/1s going off at 4/5, then I'd have to ask you what color the sky is in your world.

Just kidding. You know you're the man. But don't you think the morning line affects your personal handicapping? I think it does mine. Isn't that what we come to a lot of our decisions by? I find myself more willing to give a 20/1 ML the brush in a Pick 3 or 4 for instance, where I might give a 4/1 ML a second look if I didn't like him the first time just because he's 4/1 and I want to find out what I'm missing.

Maybe I'm way out in left field and the whole world is laughing at me, but that's my theory which is based on nothing more than my comparitively limited observation: The ML has a lot to do with how the final odds shake out, and if the ML did not exist, final odds may be radically different.

Barry Bonds might be a better name than Dean Smith.

You're crazy dude. If you are really observing this then it is cause the handicapper setting the morning lines is doing a good job. He's not giving his picks, he's guessing how the public will bet which can be easily surmised by looking at the PPs and reading a few posts on here. And if you are really betting on the morning lines then please let me know what tracks you are playing so I can play them cause the more of you out there, the better I feel about making money.

[ninetoone]

Actually, I think he's right. For the average person, especially on a big handle day (Derby, Preakness, Belmont, BC), the morning line absolutely affects the wagering. Not saying it's right, but I'd say it's true.

This, of course, is good news for the real players & this is why you can get great prices on those days.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Actually, I think he's right. For the average person, especially on a big handle day (Derby, Preakness, Belmont, BC), the morning line absolutely affects the wagering. Not saying it's right, but I'd say it's true.

This, of course, is good news for the real players & this is why you can get great prices on those days.

So this morning line reflects the wagering more than most races?

Cool Coal Man 20-1 44.1
Tale of Ekati 15-1 37.4
Anak Nakal 30-1 53.9
Court Vision 20-1 17.7
Eight Belles 15-1 13.1
Z Fortune 15-1 19.2
Big Truck 50-1 28.6
Visionaire 20-1 25.3
Pyro 6-1 5.7
Colonel John 4-1 4.7
Z Humor 30-1 63.6
Smooth Air 20-1 42
Bob Black Jack 20-1 29.4
Monba 15-1 31.6
Adriano 30-1 28.9
Denis of Cork 20-1 27.2
Cowboy Cal 20-1 39.2
Recapturetheglory 20-1 49
Gayego 15-1 18.9
Big Brown 3-1 2.4

[ninetoone]

The morning line affects the wagering, especially on big handle days. Especially for the top 3 choices.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dean smith

I may have exaggerated just how exact final odds end up to morning line odds, but it just seems to me that if a horse is 20/1 in the ML, he's going to wind up somewhere in that range at post time, if he's 8/1 he's going to wind up in that 6/1-10/1 third or fourth choice grouping, etc. If you are truly seeing all sorts of 20/1s going off at 4/5, then I'd have to ask you what color the sky is in your world.

Just kidding. You know you're the man. But don't you think the morning line affects your personal handicapping? I think it does mine. Isn't that what we come to a lot of our decisions by? I find myself more willing to give a 20/1 ML the brush in a Pick 3 or 4 for instance, where I might give a 4/1 ML a second look if I didn't like him the first time just because he's 4/1 and I want to find out what I'm missing.

Maybe I'm way out in left field and the whole world is laughing at me, but that's my theory which is based on nothing more than my comparitively limited observation: The ML has a lot to do with how the final odds shake out, and if the ML did not exist, final odds may be radically different.

look at golden gate race 3 today. the #6 is a ridiculous 8-1 m/l.

it's a bad line. no one is going to be influenced by it. the horse will go off at 5-2 or lower.

let me know if i was wrong.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

look at golden gate race 3 today. the #6 is a ridiculous 8-1 m/l.

it's a bad line. no one is going to be influenced by it. the horse will go off at 5-2 or lower.

let me know if i was wrong.

5-1. bet it.

[hi_im_god]

i can't wait for this thread to disappear.

[ninetoone]

The morning line fave (6/5) got hammered down to 3/5 & ran 2nd. The winner was the third choice on the M/L at 4-1 and was an overlay at 6-1.

Your 6 looked like it went off at 4-something to one...so you were right about the bad line on that one.