Odds Bernardini Races As A 4 Year Old?

slotdirt · #1 08-30-2006, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

I don't think Bernardini will ever have a big following outside the racing world, mostly because of his owners. I mean, where's the great story there? Sheikhs buy blueblood stock and the horse is pretty good. That doesn't capture anybody's imagination.

randallscott35 · #2 08-30-2006, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't think Bernardini will ever have a big following outside the racing world, mostly because of his owners. I mean, where's the great story there? Sheikhs buy blueblood stock and the horse is pretty good. That doesn't capture anybody's imagination.

An excellent point. I would say that the racing world does matter to me, so a following even in that realm would be something....Heck, Cigar won all the time and he didn't develop the kind of following you would expect.

slotdirt · #3 08-30-2006, 11:16 AM

Bernardini will never be as popular as Cigar even in the American horse racing world for a variety of reasons. First, he won't win 16 races in a row. Second, again, he's owned by a Sheikh. I realize Sheikh "mo" as some like to call him is practically American, but still, it's not like the Chapmans or Sackatoga or the Cash is King gang. Those three horses I just mentioned are probably the three most popular horses among the general public in the last ten years, and it was 100 percent because the average joe could probably identify with the underdog story.

#4 08-30-2006, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Bernardini will never be as popular as Cigar even in the American horse racing world for a variety of reasons. First, he won't win 16 races in a row. Second, again, he's owned by a Sheikh. I realize Sheikh "mo" as some like to call him is practically American, but still, it's not like the Chapmans or Sackatoga or the Cash is King gang. Those three horses I just mentioned are probably the three most popular horses among the general public in the last ten years, and it was 100 percent because the average joe could probably identify with the underdog story.

I think it could be different this time. Bernardini is potentially capable of accomplishing more than Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, or Afleet Alex. He is being compared to the greatest of all-time; that is premature, but it could be the case. He reminds me of Spectacular Bid. I never thought that about the other horses just mentioned . In my mind, he is from another place and could be truly great. True, this is just my opinion, but I have not felt this way about a horse since The Bid.

slotdirt · #5 08-30-2006, 11:40 AM

Who is comparing him to the greatest of all time? He's no Spectacular Bid, at least not in my book. That's just crazy talk.

#6 08-30-2006, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Who is comparing him to the greatest of all time? He's no Spectacular Bid, at least not in my book. That's just crazy talk.

He is no Spectacular Bid YET.

slotdirt · #7 08-30-2006, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

He is no Spectacular Bid YET.

Nor will he be. You can put that on the board.

#8 08-30-2006, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

He is no Spectacular Bid YET.

he never will be, regardless of what he does from now on...
why? bid was outstanding at two, while bern didn't make his debut til three. bid was a dual classic winner, and his last loss ever was to a t.c. winner.
won 'em all at four, set the still standing world record at 10f, and then his walkover.

Slewbopper · #9 08-30-2006, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

He is no Spectacular Bid YET.

No one has come close to him in the last 26 years. Hell, he broke the 1 1/16 track record at Laurel by a second as a 2 yo. He set a track record as a 3 yo, and 5 as a four year old carrying between 126 and 130 in those 4 yos races. The horse was 24 for 24 from 7/8 to 1 1/4. The only possible knock on him is that he didn't win at 1 1/2. Bid lost the Belmont because of a pin and a pinhead, and the JCGC to a great older horse in Affirmed that never lost a race once he had the lead. Affirmed lost the Travers, but not the lead.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #10 08-30-2006, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Who is comparing him to the greatest of all time? He's no Spectacular Bid, at least not in my book. That's just crazy talk.

A lot of people in the media and everyone is raving about the horse. They are calling him names such as a superstar and a superhorse. I think he definitely has the potential to be the greatest we've seen since the Bid. He's got a heck of a lot more chance than most of the others. He's not great yet, but he's on the verge. If he wins these next two races, then he will be considered great by almost all.

Gander · #11 08-30-2006, 05:50 PM

If he keeps racing, theres no saying how good he can be. Not sure how anybody can say he will never be as good as Bid. How do we know?
As great a 3 year old as he is, shouldnt we expect improvement when he reaches 4 and packs on some weight?

This is what we've been waiting for a very long time. Hes like Ghostzapper but it actually appears like they will run him more than 4 times a year. Hooray for that.

LARHAGE · #12 08-30-2006, 11:48 AM

I think the Dubai guys have shown over the years their love for racing, if Bernardini is sound they will race him, there is no syndication to worry about. This isn't the Coolmore people who would be sending out 200 breeding contracts the second after he crossed the wire in the Travers.

Slewbopper · #13 08-30-2006, 03:11 PM

My own opinion, which is totally selfish, is what I think WE, the fans, would love to see......

Forget Dubai. Here is his 8 race G1 schedule as a 4 yo. Rest him after the BCC win until February. Run him in the Donn and Big Cap (He can take on the Lava Man on the LM's home turf). Bring him East for the NYRA V (Met Mile, Suburban, Whitney, Woodward, JCGC). Finish his career with the BCC at Monmouth. 5 of those races are handicaps. Maybe we could see a horse carry 130 again by the time the Whitney rolled around. Who was the last? Cigar? Skippy?

As I was saying, I am being selfish, plus I would be within driving distance of his last 6 races.