Bounce Theory

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

DrugS, what did you mean by "That was a pretty neat situation anyway"? How did you factor the fact that the horse came back at $7,500? For me, it was about as strong a bet-against as I will find, at least until the AQ bettors showed so much restraint in betting on him. I expected him to go off at 4-5.

If that same set of horses had showed up in a $10K+ claimer, I would have liked Kamboo Man at 6-5.

The owner did pocket $16.5K for the win--1st place was worth $9K. Maybe they needed to pay some bills?

--Dunbar