Bounce Theory

[The Indomitable DrugS]

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.