Bounce Theory

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Ran huge again and was claimed...

Going to Peter Chin. God bless his soul...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

[pmacdaddy]

That board was wild with Kamboo man. 5-1 with about 15 MTP.... Got me all hot under the collar. Then dropped to where expected. Strange.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

DrugS, what did you mean by "That was a pretty neat situation anyway"? How did you factor the fact that the horse came back at $7,500? For me, it was about as strong a bet-against as I will find, at least until the AQ bettors showed so much restraint in betting on him. I expected him to go off at 4-5.

If that same set of horses had showed up in a $10K+ claimer, I would have liked Kamboo Man at 6-5.

The owner did pocket $16.5K for the win--1st place was worth $9K. Maybe they needed to pay some bills?

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Another thing. The 2nd place horse encountered trouble according to the chart. "shuffled back...steadied sharply...6-wide". I haven't watched the replay, but that sounds like it could have made up for much or all of the 3.75 length margin at the end.

--Dunbar

[dellinger63]

To his credit though it appeared as though the track was favoring closers yesterday though the bias decreased as the day went on IMO His knee chips or whatever is wrong with him should show up in his performance soon.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

even with a big backward move hes still the fastest horse in that group..i used him but the rest of the field were mules..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

DrugS, what did you mean by "That was a pretty neat situation anyway"?

I thought it was neat that a horse ran a 108 Beyer in a $7,500 claimer and was entered back for the same price.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How did you factor the fact that the horse came back at $7,500?

That was obviously a very negative factor.

Be it bottom level claimers or with Graded Stake horses - with lowered expectations often comes lowered results.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The owner did pocket $16.5K for the win--1st place was worth $9K. Maybe they needed to pay some bills?

Just because the horse won nicely - don't assume that the horse doesn't have some real physical problems.

This summer, a filly here won a 25K claimer by 7 lengths, finishing in a supersonic 23 and change and ran faster than N3X Alw fillies on the same card. Instead of her connections feasting on the alarmingly easy allowance ranks here with her - they entered her for a 15K tag in her next start.

Myself and a friend claimed her - she ran a very good 2nd in a strong race for the level with a little trouble to boot - though her performance was quite a bit less than her prior big win.

I spent a good hour watching her cool down out of the race and thought she looked perfect. The hotwalker thought she was going good - a trainer and groom felt up her legs and thought she was fine. Two mornings later, I'm up at 5:30 AM and I drive to the barn to see the trainer, who was just coming back from out of town.

The filly couldn't even walk, could barely even stand up, and she wouldn't touch her food...the first of about five days where she eat almost nothing. They had a vet come by to give her a digital X-ray - expecting to find a fracture.

The next day I'm told "nothings wrong. her feet are just a little sore." So the trainer says he would get her shipped out in a few days ... and she was going to some guy with a farm in West Virgina who charges just $25 a day and trains with an equisizer.

Three weeks later - they're raving to me about how well she's doing and want to run her. I'm thinking these guys are criminally insane - but they assure me that not only will she not breakdown - but she might even run as good as last time. So they send her back two days before the race and she runs an ok 3rd at 5/2 for 15K. She comes out of the race ok. the next day she's barely eating and alternating between holding her right front hoof up - than her left - than her right. Two days later, I take her for a walk and she feels like she has a flat tire. About 2 days after that - the trainer tells me she's doing just great again. Wants to drop her down and steal a win - assures me no one will claim her because the whole backside thinks she's crippled.

A delusional version of myself let him do it because a trainer trying to talk an owner into running a horse in a spot they should win - is like a pretty girl trying to talk you into making out.

She won in good time for the level under a death grip and actually came out of that sort of ok. We ran her back again in two weeks ... turns out making her 3rd start in just 4 weeks was a little too much to ask. She got beat 10 lengths at 6/5 or so. The rider, who knew her story, said she kept changing leads and he just took care of her and never got to riding her .. though he oddly didn't pull her up.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The rider, who knew her story, said she kept changing leads and he just took care of her and never got to riding her .. though he oddly didn't pull her up.

And you, 'oddly' didn't check the replay to confirm or refute the jockey's claim?
I understand ILLman, the 'lead' expert over at DRF, has a new trip handicapping video out. This would be a spot where it'd come in very handy.

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the response. A few comments...

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That was obviously a very negative factor.

Be it bottom level claimers or with Graded Stake horses - with lowered expectations often comes lowered results.

Okay, just wanted to make sure we were on the same page. I think it's an even greater negative factor for claimers than for graded stakes horses. There are more reasons a trainer might pick a softer spot for a stakes horse. But when a trainer is putting up what appears to be a too-cheap for sale sign, it gets my attention.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just because the horse won nicely - don't assume that the horse doesn't have some real physical problems.

Well said.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This summer, a filly here won a 25K claimer by 7 lengths, finishing in a supersonic 23 and change and ran faster than N3X Alw fillies on the same card. Instead of her connections feasting on the alarmingly easy allowance ranks here with her - they entered her for a 15K tag in her next start.

Myself and a friend claimed her - she ran a very good 2nd in a strong race for the level with a little trouble to boot - though her performance was quite a bit less than her prior big win.

I'm curious about your thinking in making the claim? You must have thought (like in yesterday's race) that there was something wrong with the filly. Who brings a dominating 25K winner back for sale at 15K? Were you assuming it was something minor that you could be patient with and fix?

--Dunbar