Profile of a Derby Winner

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here's a pretty simple three step gauge to see if a 3-year-old is Ky Derby winner material or not.

All of the last 12 Ky Derby winners fit atleast one of the following 3 very exclusive categories.

* Elite raw talent beyond 6fs in career start #2 :

This is defined as being able to run a triple digit Beyer figure in the 2nd lifetime start.. and that race must come at a distance further than 6fs.

Toughness factor: VERY few horses can manage to do this. Right now, I believe none from this year have.

* Stamina rich closer with good raw talent in career start #2 and 2yo Grade 1 stake success from off the pace:

This is defined as being able to run a Beyer in the 80's or better, beyond 6fs, in career start #2 - and run either a 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 2yo stake while using closing tactics later in the year.

Toughness factor: Not a single horse in this crop managed to do this.

* Coming into the Derby razor sharp:

This is defined as being able to run a Beyer of 103 or better in the final Derby prep.

Toughness factor: In the last two years - only one horse (Big Brown) came into the Derby with a last out Beyer higher than 103. In the last 4 years, only seven horses out of 80 Derby starters have come into the race with a last out Beyer higher than a 103.


Basically, by putting a very precise focus on quality of performance in only career start #2 and the final prep for the Derby ... you're able to net all of the last 12 Derby winners while still being able to exclude a tremendously high portion of horses.

* Beyer in final Derby prep for subsuquent Derby winners from '97 to '04:

2004: Smarty Jones 107 Beyer
2003: Funny Cide 110 Beyer
2002: War Emblem 112 Beyer
2001: Monarchos 103 Beyer
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 111 Beyer
1999: Charismatic 108 Beyer
1998: Real Quiet 107 Beyer
1997: Silver Charm 110 Beyer

As you can see, 8 straight years of 103 or better in the final prep - seven of which 107 or better.

* Horses who ran a triple digit Beyer in career start #2

2008 winner: Big Brown: 106 Beyer: 8 furlongs
2006 winner: Barbaro: 102 Beyer: 8.5 furlongs
2004 winner: Smarty Jones: 105 Beyer: 7 furlongs
2003 winner: Funny Cide: 103 Beyer: 7 furlongs

* Closers who ran Beyer in the 80's in career start #2 and had Grade 1 route success at age 2:

2007 winner: Street Sense. Won 2nd career start with 83 Beyer at 6.5f. Closed from way out of it to win Grade 1 BC Juvie with 108 Beyer.

2005 winner: Giacomo. Won 2nd career start handily by 10 lengths at 8.5fs with an 86 Beyer. Was 2nd beaten just a length in Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity while closing strong.


It's certainly looking like a decent possibility that not a single horse in this years Derby will fit under any of the three gauges ... and if that happens ... just call them the worst crop ever again.

Good stuff..thnx for posting