Spa jockey/agent title race

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.