Spa jockey/agent title race

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

The agents can definitely make a difference. The agents are certainly a factor. I'm not denying that.

But the best jocks usually end up with the best agents.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 25 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 10 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

Stats arent his strong point Rupert. I think thats pretty clear. Number of mounts have nothing to do with pure percentage of wins.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stats arent his strong point Rupert. I think thats pretty clear. Number of mounts have nothing to do with pure percentage of wins.

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

LOL!!! This is pretty funny.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

But they dont have the same win %. Do you not understand that? Good lord.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

But they dont have the same win %. Do you not understand that? Good lord.

Yes I undertsand that. Gomez's win percenatge is 1 point higher. That means that they would need to have 700 mounts a piece for Gomez to have a 7 win lead.

7 is 1% of 700.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Yes I undertsand that. Gomez's win percenatge is 1 point higher. That means that they would need to have 700 mounts a piece for Gomez to have a 7 win lead.

7 is 1% of 700.

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

As I said before, I'm not sure what he is so confused about. If they both had 5000 mounts, then Gomez would have 50 more wins. But with only 200 mounts a piece, you would expect Gomez to be leading by 2.