Spa jockey/agent title race

[Gander]

Lets take a look at the only 2 contender's for the jockey title mounts with morning lines for Wed:

Prado
1- Defrizz 9/5 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)
2- Maven 8/1
4- Trust Nobody 3/1
5- Tall Story 9/2 (Hails from the barn of Tommy "if his names not Bernardini he cant win" Albertrani)
6- British Attitude 10/1
7- Ferocious Fires 7/2 (Ole Dutrow)
8- Changeisgonnacome 6/1
9- Hunting Hillbilly 6/1 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)

Gomez
3- Babyifurgoodtogo 7/2
4- Market Psychology 9/2 (Violette)
5- Trueheart 8/1
6- Ever a Friend 7/2 (Golf Pro Kev says hes better suited for dirt, may get his wish)
7- Trading Pro 4/1 (Violette again)

As has been the case the whole meet, Prado will get a few more mounts than his rival Gomez. I'm very surprised there is even a race at this point. Prado should have him by 7 or 8 with the number of mounts he rides.

This is funny. If it was Frieze/Gomez v Anderson/Prado you would be on here touting Anderson. You are so predictable Oracle. And look at the number of mounts between Prado and Gomez. Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez. Give Gomez the same amount of mounts and he is leading by 5-7 wins. Now for Angel/Velasquez you better believe they care about titles. Titles = money and anyone who believes differently is crazy. Johnny is $120k behind Gomez and $150k or so behind Prado. Still dang good but they are finding out that Johnny V isnt all he is cracked up to be. And trainers are starting to realize the same. But good try on spinning all this Oracle. Very very good try.

What is even more funny is that Johnny V may fall behind an apprentice this meet. Very doubtful but only 1 win seperates the two.

[Gander]

Gomez had some very cagey rides yesterday. He rode Judy Soda very smartly on the front end. Then he rode Wynsome Wesley (a horse that was most likely "not trying" first time out behind a runaway winner very well resisting the urge to move too quickly. Anybody could have ridden his 3rd winner of the day whatdreamsaremadeof.

As they say in Harvard, Garret is doing "more with less" this year at Saratoga.

[Gander]

I'm just very thankful Garret didnt win the last race
His mount Continuity scared me a bit and "a little birdie" said that horse would be very tough to beat.

Did everyone forget Velazquez had a serious injury in late April? Rushed back in early June. Do you honestly expect him to be back to normal by now? I think he's doing outstanding considering the injuries he suffered.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Did everyone forget Velazquez had a serious injury in late April? Rushed back in early June. Do you honestly expect him to be back to normal by now? I think he's doing outstanding considering the injuries he suffered.

That has ZERo effect. He is 100% healed.

Its you two novices who are doing the spinning, not me.
Richi, johnny/Angel are forced to ride all the Pletchers, he can rarely if ever get permission not to. The other two aren't pinned down. Now you can argue that gives johnny some automatic wins, and it does. But it costs Angel the chance to spin to live mounts. In addition, you will note his catch rides are most often for dead barns. the live ones go to Prado because they know he might ride the horse back, whereas Angel always has to tell everyone that he can ride back unles Todd runs something in there.
In terms of number of races won, Prado will always beat Johnny at any meet, not just this one.
And richi, you are insane if you think Gomez hasnt been riding chalk. Look at yesterday!! 4-5, 3-2, and 2-1 were his winners, so you are either a liar or unobservant.
Euro- Anderson is a better agent perhaps at securing stakes mounts, but in everyday competition Frieze is the King. Not known as a particularly warm and fuzzy guy, he always has the edge and thinks three steps ahead.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its you two novices who are doing the spinning, not me.
Richi, johnny/Angel are forced to ride all the Pletchers, he can rarely if ever get permission not to. The other two aren't pinned down. Now you can argue that gives johnny some automatic wins, and it does. But it costs Angel the chance to spin to live mounts. In addition, you will note his catch rides are most often for dead barns. the live ones go to Prado because they know he might ride the horse back, whereas Angel always has to tell everyone that he can ride back unles Todd runs something in there.
In terms of number of races won, Prado will always beat Johnny at any meet, not just this one.
And richi, you are insane if you think Gomez hasnt been riding chalk. Look at yesterday!! 4-5, 3-2, and 2-1 were his winners, so you are either a liar or unobservant.
Euro- Anderson is a better agent perhaps at securing stakes mounts, but in everyday competition Frieze is the King. Not known as a particularly warm and fuzzy guy, he always has the edge and thinks three steps ahead.

Of course Gomez rides some chalk. They all do. I'm not interested if he rode chalk yesterday. I'm interested in the median price of his horses for the meet. That's all that matters. It doesn't matter whether he rode chalk yesterday or over the weekend. I'm interested in how much chalk he rode for the meet out of his 144 mounts.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This is funny. If it was Frieze/Gomez v Anderson/Prado you would be on here touting Anderson. You are so predictable Oracle. And look at the number of mounts between Prado and Gomez. Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez. Give Gomez the same amount of mounts and he is leading by 5-7 wins. Now for Angel/Velasquez you better believe they care about titles. Titles = money and anyone who believes differently is crazy. Johnny is $120k behind Gomez and $150k or so behind Prado. Still dang good but they are finding out that Johnny V isnt all he is cracked up to be. And trainers are starting to realize the same. But good try on spinning all this Oracle. Very very good try.

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

Trust me, richi, Frieze will always get his rider more mounts than anyone else.
Hes the best pure condition book reading/knowing who is eligible and ready to win in that spot guy at the track. Ask anyone who knows Ny racing on the inside.
And I know you are smart enough to see why Angel/Johnny won't win any riding titles at any track anytime soon, if ever. Todd is about a 21% trainer in Ny. And johnny rides most of em. But if you peruse the DRF here ona daily basis you will see he longer rides often or at all forutrow, Violette, Mott, McGaughey, Levine,Zito, Contessa, or Asmussen. Its hard to deal with the situation. You use him on a maiden and he wins impressively and you need to get a new rider next time out most of the time, because he will spin you for Pletcher.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

That is correct.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Thats where YOU are funny. I made the premise that Frieze was better at day to day hustling than anyone else, and you scoffed at it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

We're not assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% based on his number of mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip, period. He has 20% winners this meet.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

The agents can definitely make a difference. The agents are certainly a factor. I'm not denying that.

But the best jocks usually end up with the best agents.