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[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top. Thanks!!

V/J,

Absolutely.. R Clear Victory ran the 0.50, the 2.5 and the 7.0. Has had nearly 6 weeks and should return to near his top. But look at Mor Chances for the example of the 0-2-X followed by the return to the top... New top of 3 (in slop); regression to 5.25; bounces to 10.5 (complicated slightly by race being on grass where he's not as strong); returns to the top of 3 on 6 weeks rest at bonus mutuel of 7-1.

Back to R Clear Victory though... Recognize that the 'Thoro-Pattern' is the universe of horses in the database that have been in a similar circumstance as R Clear Victory:

570 starts in Nov-Jan where a horse 5yo or older was coming into a race off a similar pattern: Top-Off-X.

3% (New Top); 16% (Pair Up); 28% (Off Effort); 54% (X's)

Yes, only 3% got a new top.. But think about this.. would you expect most 5yo's to be consistantly running new tops the way you might expect a healthy, upswinging 3yo to run one? At the same time, note Victory Gallop's Sire Index for 5+. It's the best figure average for him. Overall? 11.75. But 5+? 9.75! Victory Gallop progeny are still improving as older horses, and R Clear Victory's entire campaign as a 5yo supports that.

This is a very sound horse. Note how even when he reacts to efforts (the 15 in 12/07, the 8.5 in 2/08, the 6.75 in 7/08) he snaps right back to pair up. And note how tight the progression line is for him. The 3% new top makes a lot of sense here (late season universe of Nov.-Jan. for older horses) given how R Clear Victory has already set 3 new tops during this season:

4.50/4.75 in Jan/Feb
2.5 in April
0.5 in August

It would appear that R Clear Victory is more likely in this particular case to project to the more reasonable 2.5 range than all the way back to the top. After all, while he's only 3% likely to run better than the 0.5 top, he's 44% likely to Pair Up or go Off, which is a range of about 0.5-4.

Asmussen would do well to give him a nice winter break of 60-75 days after this race as he's had a great year and could repeat it in '09 with a deserved rest. Very interesting horse to look at and a fascinating race too... Have to look at the rest, but at a glance, and without the PP's or ML, one horse that may be a price play in there is Almighty Silver.