Blackberry Road in FG 8th Thursday

King Glorious · #1 12-19-2008, 03:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I guess the :49 half and 1:14.3 three-quarters that the winning favorite got away with had nothing to do with the outcome of the race...

It may have but around the far turn, Blackberry had made a huge move and had every chance to go on and win if he was good enough. He wasn't. I'm not into making excuses for horses that are now 1-14. Obviously, with a horse like this, he didn't lose the race because of the fractions. He lost because he doesn't like to win. To use the pace as any sort of excuse for him is, I think, looking for an excuse where there is none. Especially when you look at the horse that finished second in the race. After a 1/2 mile, Our Dancer was in third, about 1 1/2 lengths behind the leader. Blackberry was another 1 1/2 lengths back in fifth. After 6f, Blackberry had gone past Our Dancer. Blackberry was third, 1 1/2 back of the leader. Our Dancer was fifth, about a 1/2 length behind Blackberry. After 7f, Blackberry still held a length advantage over Our Dancer and was 2 1/2 off the lead. At the finish, Our Dancer was 2 3/4 in front of Blackberry and Blackberry was 5 1/4 behind the winner. So from the 7f mark to the finish, Blackberry lost 2 3/4 lengths to the winner and 3 3/4 lengths to the runner-up. It wasn't like Blackberry ever turned in a blazing internal fraction just to get to contention and then flattened out. Nobody was running fast in the race and Blackberry was never more than four out of it. Those fractions may have had something to do with why the winner won......but nothing to do with why Blackberry lost.

Kasept · #2 12-19-2008, 04:50 AM

A long-winded explanation designed to ridicule one horse while failing to address the fact the FAVORITE WON getting a ridiculously easy front-running trip that no off the pace runner was going to overcome.

King Glorious · #3 12-19-2008, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

A long-winded explanation designed to ridicule one horse while failing to address the fact the FAVORITE WON getting a ridiculously easy front-running trip that no off the pace runner was going to overcome.

Antitrust asked the specific question of how did he do? He was asking about Blackberry Road. That's why I answered about that horse. It's true that I do think he's a donkey but I still think it's more than a bit silly trying to write his loss off as a result of the pace when this is a horse that's now 1-14. It's always something.

mes5107 · #4 12-19-2008, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Those fractions may have had something to do with why the winner won......but nothing to do with why Blackberry lost.

So the fractions helped the winner beat everybody BUT Blackberry Road, who lost on his own?

King Glorious · #5 12-19-2008, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107

So the fractions helped the winner beat everybody BUT Blackberry Road, who lost on his own?

Comprehension is a beautiful thing.

mes5107 · #6 12-19-2008, 11:18 AM

Well, which is it?

The favorite finished up the last qtr in 23.1 on the dirt after being able to lope along the first 3/4's at 24.3, 24.2, and 25.3. At the quarter pole, Blackberry Road was about 1.5 lengths behind. To catch the favorite, he would have had to run about a 22.4 final quarter. A tough task for any horse, especially for one who just made a four wide move after traveling 3/4's of a mile. I'm not touting Blackberry Road by any means, but I find it hard to believe that the favorite didn't have the race handed to him with those fractions. Anything resembling a pace would have completely changed the dynamics of this race.

miraja2 · #7 12-19-2008, 11:34 AM

I don't think people are really saying anything that different here.
The fact that the favorite/winner was allowed to set such easy fractions was probably the main reason that horse won. I think we probably all agree with Steve on that point.
That doesn't automatically mean that KG's point is completely invalid. He seems to be saying that if Blackberry Road was much of a horse, he would have beaten the second place finisher and probably would have been closer to the winner than he ended up being in reality. It seems to me that is a valid point also.

In other words, I think they're both true.
The winner DID win because he is a pretty good horse that got to lope along on an easy pace.
Blackberry Road DIDN'T finish second or even challenge the winner despite the pace disadvantage because he isn't particularly good.

King Glorious · #8 12-19-2008, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think people are really saying anything that different here.
The fact that the favorite/winner was allowed to set such easy fractions was probably the main reason that horse won. I think we probably all agree with Steve on that point.
That doesn't automatically mean that KG's point is completely invalid. He seems to be saying that if Blackberry Road was much of a horse, he would have beaten the second place finisher and probably would have been closer to the winner than he ended up being in reality. It seems to me that is a valid point also.

In other words, I think they're both true.
The winner DID win because he is a pretty good horse that got to lope along on an easy pace.
Blackberry Road DIDN'T finish second or even challenge the winner despite the pace disadvantage because he isn't particularly good.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Considering the way the race was run, Blackberry Road probably shouldn't have been expected to win. But usually, we will see a runner put together a nice finish and make some progress on a winner that had it all to himself. Instead, we saw him retreating in the lane and even getting passed by a horse that he had already passed around the turn.