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Old 12-14-2008, 05:17 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dellinger63
You need to go over 100% to account for track takeout.

http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:...lnk&cd=1&gl=us
Not if you are trying to make a fair odds line as a handicapping tool. What you want is your best estimate of each horse's true chance of winning.

If you are trying to make a morning line, then, yes, you factor in the track take. My spreadsheet has that as an option, too. But the original poster was interested in a fair odds line.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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