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#1
12-12-2008, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
 Bounce theory doesn't preclude that exactly 2 or 3 or even 4 straight improving performances will guarantee a 'bounce' or regression. Most true regression performances are the result of a SIGNIFICANT jump up in terms of figure-based evaluations. Plenty of horses show ongoing improvement or pair up efforts before a big forward move results in a bounce or regression in the next outing. A horse that makes only the smallest incremental improvement in terms of his figures can go forward endlessly before leveling off or regressing. But it takes a significant physical effort to produce it... In terms of duplicating ascension on the PP's, I think you don't see them often but they are out there. And if you allow for possible cross-out races in a horse's form cycle, (troubled starts; bad trips; surface disdain, etc.), you can spot hidden upswings.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 12-12-2008 at 10:04 AM. 
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#2
12-12-2008, 09:57 AM
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I was just flipping through one Cardello's book last night where he talked about the "3 and out" beyer pattern. When a horse showed 3 straight ascending Beyers, 70% of the time the horse regressed and +/-50% regressed 6 points or more-multiple lengths. Of course he cautioned against a strict application involving younger, lightly raced horses.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#3
12-13-2008, 04:06 AM
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beyer and cardello are saying 3 ascending beyers are bad bets next out. formulator seems to show unbelievably good rois for almost all trainers using this filter . at least plus 20 percent in most cases.what gives? am i misinterpertating the formulator results or does the three ascending beyer filter actually represent something else besides 3 beyers on the upswing.that is my question.
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