Joel Rosario

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're really reaching now. You started by saying Champs was about 20 lengths better on paper (which means absolutely nothing in regards to what was actually happening in the race) and now you're saying Rosario read the form, saw it was the 2-1 Winchester and not some less bet horse and decided it would be better to go around? I just find that whole scenario hard to believe all things considered.

There was no waiting. Winchester started drifting out and instead of staying inside, like Valdivia eventually did right behind him. Rosario made the decision to go outside and Valdivia decided inside. It gave Champs the few lengths he needed and he held. Champs is a better horse than Obrigado on most days. I don't think yesterday was one of them.

First of all, races aren't run on paper, as I'm sure you know. So what the 2 respective horses looked like on paper had and has nothing to do with it

LOL. This was your statement and I disagree and stated why. What would i have to reach for?

Champs stayed inside because he was running BEHIND Obrigado. Obrigado's decision to move outside influenced Winchester to try to fan him out which created the hole for Champs.

Champs is a better horse than obrigado any day. Valdivia got a lucky trip and was allowed to stay patient because he was on the best horse.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Keep reaching. You're making this about everything OTHER than the decision Rosario made. You started with who was better on paper. Then you wanted to try and interpret what Rosario's thought process was. Now, you are interpreting the events of the race incorrectly.

The discussion was about the ride Rosario gave and more importantly his decisions around the turn into the stretch. What you fail to see or just don't want to, is if Rosario did what Valdivia did, he wins the race. He didn't. He decided to go outside, instead of stay in. Valdivia, like a polished rider, stayed patient, saw an opportunity and took it.

Rosario's bad decision to move out instead of stay inside enabled Champs to win. Winchester was coming out, if Rosario stays in, he has the same trip Champs got and he's in the winners circle. I also disagree Champs was the best horse yesterday. I realize it's completely subjective, but if you swith Obrigado's trip with Champs, he wins IMO.

For some reason you are unable or unwilling to grasp the idea that perhaps Obrigado doesnt win regardless of what the jockey does in that situation. And for some reason, you keep telling me that im "reaching" instead of addressing the point that i am making.

I am not debating that Champs got a better trip.

[eajinabi]

I Just dont see how Rosario cost Obrigado the race. Matter of fact he had him
in perfect position throughout, sitting chilly behind the two leaders. On the turn he had to swing to the outside to contend Mr. Chairman but Champs was in full steam and Rosario urged his horse to run in tandem with Champs but he was the better horse that day and obrigado ran very game. i dont see how he could have gotten a better trip

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I Just dont see how Rosario cost Obrigado the race. Matter of fact he had him
in perfect position throughout, sitting chilly behind the two leaders. On the turn he had to swing to the outside to contend Mr. Chairman but Champs was in full steam and Rosario urged his horse to run in tandem with Champs but he was the better horse that day and obrigado ran very game. i dont see how he could have gotten a better trip

Seems he did make the wrong decision to me.
But calling it a horrible ride is ridiculous (I know you did not).
He did a very good job early in the race of settling
a horse that imo. appeared to be a bit full of himself
for a mile and a half.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're reaching because you are bringing up things that have nothing to do with the ride. I am unwilling to grasp your idea because IMO it's incorrect. You're basing it on what the horses look like on paper and honestly you're giving Champs way too much credit. He's proven to be not the killer you're trying to make him. I'm talking about the race itself.

Do yourself a favor. Go watch the replay again. Reverse the trips the 2 horses got and tell me Champs still wins, because if Rosario stays inside, Valdivia would have to do what Rosario did.

I just watched it again. If Rosario stays inside, his path MAY be impeded by winchester who would not have tried to fan out. Champs MAY have kept the momentum even while losing a few paths and still win.

Is this not possible?

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I just watched it again. If Rosario stays inside, his path MAY be impeded by winchester who would not have tried to fan out. Champs MAY have kept the momentum even while losing a few paths and still win.

Is this not possible?

TVG just showed the replay at about 5PM EST.

I noted that Rosario did a nice job getting his horse settled down and focused on the back stretch. Not sure he would have been there for the final run if he had not done so.

I know it's been bounced back and forth on semantics, but no way was that ride a choke.

I'm also not certain the inside path would have been available. If we would have banked on the inside track and been shut off and missed the board, that would have been a ride to question.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So, you're not sure the exact same inside path Valdidivia took on Champs a few seconds later would have been available? Why not, if Valdivia took it literally 3 seconds later? Would it have magically closed?

The path opened so nicely becausee Winchester went outside to fan Obrigado. Smullen hits him twice left handed.

If Obrigado stays in, isnt it likely smullen closes the door inside?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No, I don't think so. To me it looked like Winchester was coming out regardless. I don't buy the whole fanning out thing. Especially considering Obrigado's odds. Do you really think Smullen was worried about a 23-1 or so horse? Didn't he read the racing form?

Smullen is from the UK. The racing form here is written in American

And if he wasnt fanning out, why is he whipping left handed?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You've completely lost me. Fanning out? I'm going to stop posting now, because at this point I'm not sure what other excuse you'll come up with. As usual, we started talking about a decision Rosario made, and now we're in "what if" land. Sorry, you guys can have fun playing that game. For what it's worth I think Rosario rode a fine race for 98% of the race. I just think his decision to go out cost him the win. I think the small margin of victory, by the perfect trip Champs validates my thinking. That's it.

I think Rosario is a good rider and I have no issue with him. I didn't bet the race, so it's not sour grapes. I just think he should have won the race and would have if he remained calm like Valdivia did.

I think its hilarious that its okay for you to make an If/then statement i.e If Rosario takes the inside path then he wins and then you criticize me for making my own hypothetical scenario. The whole thread is based on a hypothesis that a choice to go inside would have resulted in a win for Obrigado. What makes your hypothesis any more kosher than mine or anyone else's?

The bottom line is that Obrigado had his best result in a graded stake of his career. Calling the ride a choke (the statement i originally responded to) is just plain wrong. We will never know what would have resulted if he would have taken the inside path.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So, you're not sure the exact same inside path Valdidivia took on Champs a few seconds later would have been available? Why not, if Valdivia took it literally 3 seconds later? Would it have magically closed?

Valdivia had an easier decision than Rosario as the race unfolded. When Rosario took the sure route on the outside of the 3, the inside was still in doubt.

By the time Valdivia got there, the inside was open due to Rosario's decision to go out for a sure chance and the #3 horse (2-1) drifting wider.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So we can agree that Rosario's decision to go wide instead of stay in probably cost him more than the 1/2 length or so he got beat?

Oh sure it did. It was probably about three lengths. However, what is not quantifiable is the momentum he was able to keep by going wide and whether or not that was more important than the lost ground. We also dont know what would have happened if he would have stayed inside. We also dont know if Champs had enough horse to take it outside and still win.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You beat me to it!