Joel Rosario

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I just watched the replay of the race 5 times. I'm not sure "choke" is the right word either, but his decision to go outside instead of stay inside like Valdivia did absolutely cost him the win. I'm not sure how that can even be debated.

But, up to that point he had his horse in a perfect spot. No shame in getting outridden by Valdivia on the turf as I think he's a fantastic turf rider. But, Rosario should have won that race IMO. And I can absolutely understand someone that bet Obrigado having a beef with the outcome or thinking that the rider of Obrigado cost the horse the win. Especially with the finish so close.

I disagree with your assessment of the horse's chances. How do you know that if Obrigado stays inside that smullen doesnt try to shut the door on him inside? Remember, he whips left handed around the turn forcing Obrigado outside two paths. Champs, on class, is about 20 lengths ahead of Obrigado on paper. How do you know champs doesnt break outside for the big run?

All of these different factors and you can say unequivically that the ride cost him the race? Valdivia is an excellent turf rider but he its easy in a race like that to sit chilly when you are on the best horse. If he gets shut off inside, champs is good enough to make a run to the outside. Does this not make any sense? Or are you really under the notion that Obrigado was "much the best" in any race that isnt claiming?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

First of all, races aren't run on paper, as I'm sure you know. So what the 2 respective horses looked like on paper had and has nothing to do with it. .

I simply dont agree with this statement.

Jockeys read the racing form and many of the decisions they make during the race are based on past performances. A jockey isnt going to ride the favorite the same way he is going to ride a 23-1 shot.

If there was s a cheaper horse in front of him instead of Winchester (2-1), perhaps Rosario would have waited. There are a bunch of variables that go into every race so i dont know how you can say that what was on paper had nothing to do with it.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're really reaching now. You started by saying Champs was about 20 lengths better on paper (which means absolutely nothing in regards to what was actually happening in the race) and now you're saying Rosario read the form, saw it was the 2-1 Winchester and not some less bet horse and decided it would be better to go around? I just find that whole scenario hard to believe all things considered.

There was no waiting. Winchester started drifting out and instead of staying inside, like Valdivia eventually did right behind him. Rosario made the decision to go outside and Valdivia decided inside. It gave Champs the few lengths he needed and he held. Champs is a better horse than Obrigado on most days. I don't think yesterday was one of them.

First of all, races aren't run on paper, as I'm sure you know. So what the 2 respective horses looked like on paper had and has nothing to do with it

LOL. This was your statement and I disagree and stated why. What would i have to reach for?

Champs stayed inside because he was running BEHIND Obrigado. Obrigado's decision to move outside influenced Winchester to try to fan him out which created the hole for Champs.

Champs is a better horse than obrigado any day. Valdivia got a lucky trip and was allowed to stay patient because he was on the best horse.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Keep reaching. You're making this about everything OTHER than the decision Rosario made. You started with who was better on paper. Then you wanted to try and interpret what Rosario's thought process was. Now, you are interpreting the events of the race incorrectly.

The discussion was about the ride Rosario gave and more importantly his decisions around the turn into the stretch. What you fail to see or just don't want to, is if Rosario did what Valdivia did, he wins the race. He didn't. He decided to go outside, instead of stay in. Valdivia, like a polished rider, stayed patient, saw an opportunity and took it.

Rosario's bad decision to move out instead of stay inside enabled Champs to win. Winchester was coming out, if Rosario stays in, he has the same trip Champs got and he's in the winners circle. I also disagree Champs was the best horse yesterday. I realize it's completely subjective, but if you swith Obrigado's trip with Champs, he wins IMO.

For some reason you are unable or unwilling to grasp the idea that perhaps Obrigado doesnt win regardless of what the jockey does in that situation. And for some reason, you keep telling me that im "reaching" instead of addressing the point that i am making.

I am not debating that Champs got a better trip.

[eajinabi]

I Just dont see how Rosario cost Obrigado the race. Matter of fact he had him
in perfect position throughout, sitting chilly behind the two leaders. On the turn he had to swing to the outside to contend Mr. Chairman but Champs was in full steam and Rosario urged his horse to run in tandem with Champs but he was the better horse that day and obrigado ran very game. i dont see how he could have gotten a better trip

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I Just dont see how Rosario cost Obrigado the race. Matter of fact he had him
in perfect position throughout, sitting chilly behind the two leaders. On the turn he had to swing to the outside to contend Mr. Chairman but Champs was in full steam and Rosario urged his horse to run in tandem with Champs but he was the better horse that day and obrigado ran very game. i dont see how he could have gotten a better trip

Seems he did make the wrong decision to me.
But calling it a horrible ride is ridiculous (I know you did not).
He did a very good job early in the race of settling
a horse that imo. appeared to be a bit full of himself
for a mile and a half.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're reaching because you are bringing up things that have nothing to do with the ride. I am unwilling to grasp your idea because IMO it's incorrect. You're basing it on what the horses look like on paper and honestly you're giving Champs way too much credit. He's proven to be not the killer you're trying to make him. I'm talking about the race itself.

Do yourself a favor. Go watch the replay again. Reverse the trips the 2 horses got and tell me Champs still wins, because if Rosario stays inside, Valdivia would have to do what Rosario did.

I just watched it again. If Rosario stays inside, his path MAY be impeded by winchester who would not have tried to fan out. Champs MAY have kept the momentum even while losing a few paths and still win.

Is this not possible?

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I just watched it again. If Rosario stays inside, his path MAY be impeded by winchester who would not have tried to fan out. Champs MAY have kept the momentum even while losing a few paths and still win.

Is this not possible?

TVG just showed the replay at about 5PM EST.

I noted that Rosario did a nice job getting his horse settled down and focused on the back stretch. Not sure he would have been there for the final run if he had not done so.

I know it's been bounced back and forth on semantics, but no way was that ride a choke.

I'm also not certain the inside path would have been available. If we would have banked on the inside track and been shut off and missed the board, that would have been a ride to question.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So, you're not sure the exact same inside path Valdidivia took on Champs a few seconds later would have been available? Why not, if Valdivia took it literally 3 seconds later? Would it have magically closed?

The path opened so nicely becausee Winchester went outside to fan Obrigado. Smullen hits him twice left handed.

If Obrigado stays in, isnt it likely smullen closes the door inside?

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So, you're not sure the exact same inside path Valdidivia took on Champs a few seconds later would have been available? Why not, if Valdivia took it literally 3 seconds later? Would it have magically closed?

Valdivia had an easier decision than Rosario as the race unfolded. When Rosario took the sure route on the outside of the 3, the inside was still in doubt.

By the time Valdivia got there, the inside was open due to Rosario's decision to go out for a sure chance and the #3 horse (2-1) drifting wider.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You beat me to it!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're really reaching now. You started by saying Champs was about 20 lengths better on paper (which means absolutely nothing in regards to what was actually happening in the race) and now you're saying Rosario read the form, saw it was the 2-1 Winchester and not some less bet horse and decided it would be better to go around? I just find that whole scenario hard to believe all things considered.

If you dont think the past performances of Champs or Winchester for that matter had any impact on the way the jockeys rode the race, then i suggest you talk to a jockey and ask.