Pick 4 Carryovers

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously the average Pick-4 payout isn't four times the parlay but is probably somewhere around 1.5 times the parlay. This is pure mathematics and completely due to the dispersal in takeout. While the numbers aren't exact, the takeout does get divided over the number of races in any multirace bet, and thus if the Pick-4 takeout is 25% it is roughly 6% in each race....as opposed to say 17% in the win pool.

Assuming these numbers for now, a horse that is exactly 4:1 in a 100K pool, before takeout, has $16.6K bet to win on it ( 1/5 of 100K is 17K takeout ). Suppose the takeout was 6%....that same horse would pay $11.30 to win ( instead of $10 even ). Multiply this out four times ( to keep things relatively simple ). Four $10 horses give you a $1250 parlay on a $2 bet.....four $11.30 horses gives you $2038 ( or 1.63 times as much ).

Now, the real takout is probably closer to 6.75% in the example which is why I reduced it to 1 1/2 times....but you get the drift.

[blackthroatedwind]

Just to add, the middle level payouts are even better, as the combinations involving first and second choices in each race have been shown, over time, to pay under the parlay, and obviously the outlyer payouts with longshots will pay less than the parlay ( quite often there isn't close to enough money in the pool to pay the parlay, so to speak ). Thus, the payouts that incorperate some third choices or higher will pay more...possibly as much as 2 to 2.5 times the parlay over time.