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#1
11-24-2008, 12:49 PM
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Fman,
My observation of Xiuhcalco was he has one short burst that he can make against these types, Smith is pushing this horse far too early to keep close to the pace and the horse is just not capable of sustaining his runs. I agree the charts on the surface look suspect but with Elvis taking over he's more likely to make one quick move at the top of the stretch and that might be enough. 
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#2
11-24-2008, 01:01 PM
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I don't know. While he had to alter course a bit in the stretch, when a tiring horse came in his path, and got bounced to lefty lead again, that race was collapsing; and the winner never changed leads. Xiu... was in a drive from early turn, Smith was hacking away on him.
Meantime, he's 3:2; so, they must know something. 
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#3
11-24-2008, 01:06 PM
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When I looked at this race I figured he would be 5-2 and the #1 would go off as the favorite at post time, let's see. The only horse I would give a chance to is Halo's Approval if he gets a soft lead, he can wire this field, hopefully the #3 will do his job and keep him company.
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#4
11-24-2008, 01:23 PM
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Incredible
That's my 4th 2nd out of the last 7 races I've played. (The other 3 are winners.) And the pattern, for the most part, is always the same, with the chalk winning.
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#6
11-24-2008, 02:07 PM
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Amberdevil in the 5th at CRC, is cheap but she's cutting back and, if ridden correctly, i.e. not rushed to stay with what figures to be a contested pace early, she just might get a decent setup. Of course, Ward is deadly in these situations.
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#8
11-24-2008, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
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#9
11-24-2008, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
I strongly agree with your assessment of turf horses having success in turf sprints after two turn races. I follow turf racing very closely at AP and Haw and here's an example of how I used this same logic to produce a long shot winner. Yankee Injunuity - Front runner on 8/16/08 at AP going two turns tired late, but held on for 2nd. On 9/20/08, again going two turns was forwardly placed and yielded late to finish off the board. On 10/13/08 at HAW he's entered in a turf sprint and goes off at 33-1. The same jockey (Ferrer) settles him towards the rear of the pack and makes a big late run. I have struggled with turf sprints, but this angle has produced some winners. I'll try to provide the videos of his last 3 races. http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...8-08-16-race-7 http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...-09-20-race-10 http://hawthorneracecourse.com/live_.../081013-07.asx
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them Last edited by Bogey : 11-24-2008 at 09:32 PM.
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