Calder Monday

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Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Chances are, with Premature Smith off, you'll get a better timed ride. However, on 9/25, his best race, he closed into ridiculously SLOW fractions, where just about everyone was gaining late. So, it seems, that he needs a lot to go his way for him to win.

On the other hand, Heez For Doc is coming out of a race that produced a next out winner (Mean Max ) and, previous to that, going 9F, he ran the best, by far, of the 3 horses with the pace, in a race that came home honestly and appeared to favor closers.

Check the charts out.

Of course, I haven't watched these races and am relying solely on the charts.

There probably are better plays than in this race.

I agree with your adjective describing Ariel, accurate and apropos.

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Fman,

My observation of Xiuhcalco was he has one short burst that he can make against these types, Smith is pushing this horse far too early to keep close to the pace and the horse is just not capable of sustaining his runs. I agree the charts on the surface look suspect but with Elvis taking over he's more likely to make one quick move at the top of the stretch and that might be enough.

[the_fat_man]

I don't know. While he had to alter course a bit in the stretch, when a tiring horse came in his path, and got bounced to lefty lead again, that race was collapsing; and the winner never changed leads. Xiu... was in a drive from early turn, Smith was hacking away on him.

Meantime, he's 3:2; so, they must know something.

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When I looked at this race I figured he would be 5-2 and the #1 would go off as the favorite at post time, let's see. The only horse I would give a chance to is Halo's Approval if he gets a soft lead, he can wire this field, hopefully the #3 will do his job and keep him company.

[the_fat_man]

Incredible

That's my 4th 2nd out of the last 7 races I've played. (The other 3 are winners.) And the pattern, for the most part, is always the same, with the chalk winning.

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Well that definitely didn't turn out right, back to the drawing board.

[the_fat_man]

Amberdevil in the 5th at CRC, is cheap but she's cutting back and, if ridden correctly, i.e. not rushed to stay with what figures to be a contested pace early, she just might get a decent setup. Of course, Ward is deadly in these situations.