Aftershock of Stardom Bound sale

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's a HUGE compliment for Smith, as poly (in most cases) plays like turf, and the races are thus more 'complicated' than those on dirt (excluding long stretch dirt tracks).

Not sure he really deserves it.

California synthetic is a different beast then poly. I should have been more clear. You want to be 5w, especially on the final turn. If I was smart enough, I would have been tracking the winners since it started, but I would say 70% of the winners come from the 3-5 path on the final turn. RARELY do you see a horse go gate to wire on the rail. Rail is almost always bad

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Scav

California synthetic is a different beast then poly. I should have been more clear. You want to be 5w, especially on the final turn. If I was smart enough, I would have been tracking the winners since it started, but I would say 70% of the winners come from the 3-5 path on the final turn. RARELY do you see a horse go gate to wire on the rail. Rail is almost always bad

Not true in all cases. Per my charts:

1) DMR synthetic races 'look' like turf races (mucho moves)

2) the old SA synthetic races 'looked' like turf races

3) the new SA synthetic races 'look' more like dirt races (very few moves)

4) HOL synthetic races also 'look' more like dirt than turf

5) GG synthetic races look like dirt --- does anyone ever pass up there?

This year, KEE poly races look more like dirt, while in the past they looked like turf races.

I don't think it's a question of where on the track the horses are running so much as when. Interestingly, the BC poly races looked very much like turf races, with the last move typically winning.

Presently, at HOL, good luck coming off the pace. The norm is races with very few moves.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Not true in all cases. Per my charts:

1) DMR synthetic races 'look' like turf races (mucho moves)

2) the old SA synthetic races 'looked' like turf races

3) the new SA synthetic races 'look' more like dirt races (very few moves)

4) HOL synthetic races also 'look' more like dirt than turf

5) GG synthetic races look like dirt --- does anyone ever pass up there?

This year, KEE poly races look more like dirt, while in the past they looked like turf races.

I don't think it's a question of where on the track the horses are running so much as when. Interestingly, the BC poly races looked very much like turf races, with the last move typically winning.

Presently, at HOL, good luck coming off the pace. The norm is races with very few moves.

Interesting information, thank you.

In regards to the bolded part, would this mean that alot of these races are in fact being won by jockey decision/patience?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

the BC poly races looked very much like turf races, with the last move typically winning.

I over-generalized here. The marathon was won by a 1st move, though the 2nd mover was blocked in the stretch run, and the last mover lost the photo.

The mile was won by the next to last mover (Rebellion, moving last, failed to change leads and was compromised.)

As for the Classic, Tiago and Champs Elysses made the last moves. But, this was probably the most 'complicated' race of the day, with Raven's Pass getting a very nice setup. Check the chart, attached.

And, of course, the Juvenile colt went 2-3-1 around the track.

[cakes44]

So Coa's ride on Lewis Michael wasn't the way to go?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So Coa's ride on Lewis Michael wasn't the way to go?

if lewis michael was in fact good enough to be competitive, Coa and the LM's eagerness slaughtered his chances in that race. Speed was a toss in most situations.

[Bobby Fischer]

mike smith does wire to wire on the turf routes pretty well

everything else is pretty mediocre ,
but he did have a good thing going, with having by far the dominant closers and a track that was poison to speed. It's not like he was screwing up on Zenyatta and Stardom Bound and Tiago, so it wasn't terrible.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He sat a good trip and got him in the clear into the stretch. The horse had nothing IMO and I bet him.

"are you joking ?"


a length off a 45 half on a track that was absolutely killing pace runners.
Lewis Michael had a pretty nice finish in his previous race, it would have been nice to have given him a chance.

I really haven't bothered to decide if Coa or Lewis Michael was to blame, but it was an awful trip for that track.