Bernardini Match-Ups at Pinnacle

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

-236 vs. BGC is giving away money. Thanks for the tip Rupert!

I'd much rather take Bernardini against the field and lay -185. BGC appears to be the only one with any chance of beating Bernardini. I would be shocked to see Bernardini beat BGC and still lose the race. If beat bernardini beat BGC, then he should win the race. so I'd much rather lay -185 than -236.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'd much rather take Bernardini against the field and lay -185. BGC appears to be the only one with any chance of beating Bernardini. I would be shocked to see Bernardini beat BGC and still lose the race. If beat bernardini beat BGC, then he should win the race. so I'd much rather lay -185 than -236.

You are correct sir. I won't take either, but the value is on BGC of the two. Again, I think some of the other races offer more value.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You are correct sir. I won't take either, but the value is on BGC of the two. Again, I think some of the other races offer more value.

I wasn't saying I would take BGC. I was saying that if you are going to bet Bernardini that you should bet him against the field.

[SentToStud]

Another way to explain it in "horse odds" lingo:

To Win: $100
Must Bet: $185

Horse Odds = $100 / $185
= $.54 to $1

I have a question....

If you take Bernidini and he scratches, I assume "No Action." What happens if the "field" has one or more scratches including, say, BG Cat?

This isn't really my thing, but if you think Bernidini is going to be 1/2 or less and you are protected if he scratches AND your action holds in a short field if BG Cat scratches, then it's fairly interesting.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I have a question....

If you take Bernidini and he scratches, I assume "No Action." What happens if the "field" has one or more scratches including, say, BG Cat?

This isn't really my thing, but if you think Bernidini is going to be 1/2 or less and you are protected if he scratches AND your action holds in a short field if BG Cat scratches, then it's fairly interesting.

Unless they specify otherwise, a scratch from the Field will not void the bet. You will also see something like "Bluegrass Cat must start" as part of the Field line, but Pinnacle did not do that.

When a single horse is part of the matchup, like Bernardini, then you are correct that his scratch would void the bet.

Nice job explaining the odds, btw.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Another way to explain it in "horse odds" lingo:

To Win: $100
Must Bet: $185

Horse Odds = $100 / $185
= $.54 to $1

Maybe I should add that STS's example is for -185. For any negative number, the number is the amount you have to bet to win $100.

When the number is positive, such as +169, then the number is the amount you win if you bet $100.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'd much rather take Bernardini against the field and lay -185. BGC appears to be the only one with any chance of beating Bernardini. I would be shocked to see Bernardini beat BGC and still lose the race. If beat bernardini beat BGC, then he should win the race. so I'd much rather lay -185 than -236.

-185 is odds of 100/185, or 0.54 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.54) = 65% of the time.

-236 is odds of 100/236, or 0.42 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.42) = 70% of the time.

So, the question is, do the other horses (besides Bernardini and BGC) have a combined 5% chance to win the race? If the other horses have more than a combined 5% chance to win the race, then the -236 on Bernardini vs BGC is the better bet.

For example, if each of the "other" horses' fair odds are 60-1, then it would be better to take the -236 bet vs BGC. (60-1 means about 1.7% chance to win, and 4 x 1.7% is almost 7%. That's bigger than 5%)

That's ignoring the chance that one or more field horses (besides Kip) scratches, however.

--Dunbar

[AeWingnut]

call me crazy but I think Bernardini is a bad bet tomorrow

I see Minister's Bid giving him a target
but then I also see Blue Grass Cat pressing him
with Hesanoldsalt plodding along hoping that Minister's Bid & High Cotton gives him something to run at.

I'm not rooting against. I'm jus saying it wouldn't take a whole lot for Blue Grass Cat to upset Bernardini
and I would be happy if Hesanoldsalt hit the board

could happen

they don't call Satoga the graveyard of champions for nothing

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

-185 is odds of 100/185, or 0.54 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.54) = 65% of the time.

-236 is odds of 100/236, or 0.42 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.42) = 70% of the time.

So, the question is, do the other horses (besides Bernardini and BGC) have a combined 5% chance to win the race? If the other horses have more than a combined 5% chance to win the race, then the -236 on Bernardini vs BGC is the better bet.

For example, if each of the "other" horses' fair odds are 60-1, then it would be better to take the -236 bet vs BGC. (60-1 means about 1.7% chance to win, and 4 x 1.7% is almost 7%. That's bigger than 5%)

That's ignoring the chance that one or more field horses (besides Kip) scratches, however.

I think what I wrote in that post has been verified by the line movement at Pinnacle. Both Bernardini matchup lines have moved, but the line vs BGC has moved much more.

Bernardini is now -193 (previously -185) to beat the Field. But he is -281 (previously -236) to beat BGC. The bettors have been jumping (more) on the matchup vs BGC. The current odds imply an 8% chance of one of the other horses (besides BGC) finishing in front of Bernardini. I think that's more realistic than the 5% chance that was implied from the odds last night. I think the actual chance is probably bigger than even 8%.

--Dunbar