Vineyard Haven Sold...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In all seriousness, how long have they been at it? I know before Street Sense, we heard all the time about a supposed "Juvenile Jinx". We also heard all about how a horse with only two starts at three couldn't win it. Now, we've had two in a row. How many years and how many starters did it take for Wayne Lukas before he finally won one? Just because something hasn't happened YET doesn't mean that it can't happen.

Here is the utter fallacy of your argument, since you either don't know it, or choose to ignore it. They have failed MISERABLY with their current plan. One horse after another disappears once sent to Dubai, and when they occasionally do reappear, they fail more often than not. And, not only that, they have shown unbelievably poor judgement in their purchases. Yes, occasionally they are successful, but when you throw money around the way they do, something has to stick. The bottom line is that their ROI is miserable.

Take a look at the pps for the 6th at Aqueduct on Wednesday. Or, look at the 5th from Aqueduct today....or the 3rd from last Wednesday. The cards at Aqueduct, virtually every Fall, are littered with their mistakes. And, do you think when they purchase these horses they are pointing for November in Ozone Park?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here is the utter fallacy of your argument, since you either don't know it, or choose to ignore it. They have failed MISERABLY with their current plan. One horse after another disappears once sent to Dubai, and when they occasionally do reappear, they fail more often than not. And, not only that, they have shown unbelievably poor judgement in their purchases. Yes, occasionally they are successful, but when you throw money around the way they do, something has to stick. The bottom line is that their ROI is miserable.

Take a look at the pps for the 6th at Aqueduct on Wednesday. Or, look at the 5th from Aqueduct today....or the 3rd from last Wednesday. The cards at Aqueduct, virtually every Fall, are littered with their mistakes. And, do you think when they purchase these horses they are pointing for November in Ozone Park?

I do not deny at all that they have failed with their current plan. I don't deny that they have shown poor judgement with their purchases. I think this purchase of Vineyard Haven is one of them. It's just my belief that the main reason for failure is not the plan itself but the horses that they chose to use to implement the plan. No doubt that many of the horses disappear once they are sent over there. I wonder if sometimes, the expectations placed on these horses by the public is not higher than it should be because of the ridiculous prices paid for them? What is it that makes them failures? Would they still be considered the same failures as horses if they cost $1k each instead of what they actually cost? That's my position. The purchase prices don't have any part in why I feel the way they feel. I don't feel like they've had many legitimate contenders or horses that failed to live up to their realistic expectations, not the expectations that were unfairly raised because of how much they cost. I also think that a lot of people fail to look at how much they pay relative to how much they have. The amounts may seem outrageous to us but that's because they live in a realm that is like a fantasy land to us. That doesn't mean that they don't waste a lot of money because they do. But for them, it's not a lot and it's probably very little in relation to how they'll feel if they win the race. Again, though, I don't deny that they have failed with their plan. Only, I look at is as they've failed SO FAR. I don't see it as a plan that can never work as some do.

[Linny]

Between what they've bought and what they've bred they have had alot of opportunity. If most any typical US-based operation had the horses and the financial wherewithall that Godolphin has, they would have at least gotten close, via good management.
I agree that at first they were buying all wrong. I mean...Comeonmom?? Remember too that they are also breeding alot of horses with exceptional pedigrees and yet I don't think a single homebred has even run in the Derby. The closest they got to a Derby was when Bernardini won the Preakness. Had he been 3 or 4 weeks further along that winter, he might have won them a Derby. He was based in the US and thus far there is no indication that a Dubai regimen works.
They took a dirt bred horse like Jalil and sent him to England. He was useless until he got his feet onto the dirt in Dubai. Then he came here and was handled easily at Suffolk Downs. That's progress. Has he run since?
I just think that they have too many horses to manage them all in the best way. This is not to say that they are ill cared for but they don't seem to spot them very well. Rick Mettee does a great job with what he gets but after training for 4 or 5 months in Dubai, by the time they get back to him...

King Glorious, it's not about how much they spend, we all know that they can outspend anyone. It's about how little they get back. If any wealthy business person went into the racing business and spent like Sheik Mo has and got his results, they'd have been out years ago. It's not viable. If they were buying $1k horses and getting these results, I'll say they were geniuses. If they pay $5m for a colt worth $1m, they still bought a million dollar colt that's a likely flop.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I do not deny at all that they have failed with their current plan. I don't deny that they have shown poor judgement with their purchases. I think this purchase of Vineyard Haven is one of them. It's just my belief that the main reason for failure is not the plan itself but the horses that they chose to use to implement the plan.

What, you mean horses like Secretariat and Slew?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What, you mean horses like Secretariat and Slew?

Huh?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Huh?

Sorry, I'm on a laptop and I get lazy typing on these things.

What I meant was in response to you saying they had used the wrong types of horses for their great plans to conquer the derby.

When I said Secretariat and Slew, that was meant to ask if those were the right kinds of horses they need for their plan. You know, the immortal great kinds.

[King Glorious]

Certainly, those kinds of horses would help. But I don't think they need them to be that good. I just don't think they've had more than a couple that were probably the kind that would be considered legit contenders, no matter where they spent the winter. I just don't feel like it's right to say something has failed when it's only had a couple of real chances to succeed. Personally, I feel like it's more logical to say Pletcher is a failure than Sheikh Mo. He's had more chances, he gets great stock, and he doesn't have them winter in Dubai so they take traditional American routes to get there and yet he's still winless. But I don't think he's a failure either. I think in both cases, it just hasn't happened yet. I feel that if Sheikh Mo had spent $5k instead of $5 million on his horses, they wouldn't be looked at as failures. They would be looked at as cheap horses that didn't amount to much and I don't think that because he's got tons of money and spends it like crazy should change the fact that most of those horses he's bought wouldn't have had a chance no matter how much they cost or where they were trained. I think his failure has been in evaluating the horses. That much we can all agree on.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Certainly, those kinds of horses would help. But I don't think they need them to be that good. I just don't think they've had more than a couple that were probably the kind that would be considered legit contenders, no matter where they spent the winter. I just don't feel like it's right to say something has failed when it's only had a couple of real chances to succeed. Personally, I feel like it's more logical to say Pletcher is a failure than Sheikh Mo. He's had more chances, he gets great stock, and he doesn't have them winter in Dubai so they take traditional American routes to get there and yet he's still winless. But I don't think he's a failure either. I think in both cases, it just hasn't happened yet. I feel that if Sheikh Mo had spent $5k instead of $5 million on his horses, they wouldn't be looked at as failures. They would be looked at as cheap horses that didn't amount to much and I don't think that because he's got tons of money and spends it like crazy should change the fact that most of those horses he's bought wouldn't have had a chance no matter how much they cost or where they were trained. I think his failure has been in evaluating the horses. That much we can all agree on.

You are going to have to clarify something for me....

Either he is the absolute worst judge of horseflesh that will ever exist in this game or sending horses to Dubai to prep for the TC series is a poor idea. It can't be both....or neither.

The Sheik has bought the most expensive and well bred yearlings for over 25 years. He has bought the best broodmares available. He has gobbled up as many top 2YOs as he could. Yet, nothing has worked. He didn't spend $5K, or $5 million....he spent hundreds of millions persueing Anerican Classic hopefuls. And, yet, it hasn't worked. So, what is it.

Todd Pletcher has had far less talent in his hands, and accomplished a great deal more in America, than the Sheik. He is a raging success, compared to most everyone, and certainly the Sheik, in this country.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I feel that if Sheikh Mo had spent $5k instead of $5 million on his horses, they wouldn't be looked at as failures. They would be looked at as cheap horses that didn't amount to much and I don't think that because he's got tons of money and spends it like crazy should change the fact that most of those horses he's bought wouldn't have had a chance no matter how much they cost or where they were trained. I think his failure has been in evaluating the horses. That much we can all agree on.

If they were cheap and he won anything I'd say good on him, but they are not cheap. Much of what he's bought and raised (Comeonmom notwithstanding) has been very valuable bloodstock, whether he over paid for it or not. Several of his horses might have had a shot had they stayed in the US, as Bernardini did. Don't you think that Sheik Mo's only US classic winner would have made him re-evaluate his plan to get to the "biggest classic?" Had Bernardini gone to Dubai would he have won the Preakness? Would he have made it back? The lesson of history says "NO" pretty emphatically.
If he'd kept some of these horses in the US with trainers who know more about US racing than Saeed bin Suroor he might have had a shot. He takes a bunch of elite dirt bred colts to Europe every season to race over the bogs of Ascot and York when they could be winning the Hopeful and the Champagne and the Florida Derby and yes, maybe even the KY Derby.

As far as Pletcher, yes he's has plenty of shots but several of them were sprinter/milers with ambitious owners looking to be wined and dined in Louisville and honestly, how many years has he really tried. This year (2008) was only about his 5th try, albeit with about 10 horses each season. Sh. Mo has been after this for a decade and as Andy points out, instead of Louisville in May, he keeps getting Ozone Park in November.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So the wintering in Dubai just happens to be a coincidence? And it just happens to be a coincidence that a lot of the horses come back worse off than when they went there?

No one answered me the first time, so I'll pose the question again. If a European trainer/owner was looking to win the Arc do you think shipping here to prep for it makes sense? Or would a campaign in Europe probably be the better plan of attack?

My argument has never been that going to Dubai for the winter is the best way of doing it. I've only debated those that say that it will never work. I don't see any reason why it can't. If I was presented with facts that said horses wintering over there end up worse off than their American counterparts, I'd listen. But just as easily as someone can point out how Ruler's Court was injured and never lived up to his promise, I can point out War Pass. Just as they can mention a Street Cry, I can mention a Java Gold. I just don't happen to agree that a lot of horses come back worse than they go. I think most of them weren't much in the first place so I didn't expect them to come back and be better. What I think is a bigger issue than WHERE they are trained is HOW they are trained. The Sheikhs have had an abundance of success in Europe. They still have success in Europe with horses they winter in Dubai. I feel like part of the problem is that they try to apply some of the same training principles to win American races as they do Europeans ones and that doesn't work out too well.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No one answered me the first time, so I'll pose the question again. If a European trainer/owner was looking to win the Arc do you think shipping here to prep for it makes sense? Or would a campaign in Europe probably be the better plan of attack?

But can't you say that Godolphin has been relatively successful wintering their European campaigners in Dubai prior to the start of the regular Euro season?