Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-30-2008, 10:26 AM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Does anyone else here think he is going to turn out to be a pretty good sire as I think he will.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-30-2008, 10:36 AM
slotdirt's Avatar
slotdirt slotdirt is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,894
Default

How "commerical" is his pedigree really? That's my question.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-30-2008, 10:52 AM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
How "commerical" is his pedigree really? That's my question.
I think I know what you are saying, I'm just saying he may be a surprise win early type. I look at him as perhaps another Speightstown who certainly has been okay.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-30-2008, 11:22 AM
slotdirt's Avatar
slotdirt slotdirt is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,894
Default

I'm not disagreeing on whether or not he will be successful, I just think he's more likely to be in Pennsylvania in five years than Kentucky.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-30-2008, 11:36 AM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
Default

Midnight Lute's resume and pedigree reminds me a bit of Artax, and he isn't in KY any more. Add Lute's well-publicized breathing problems to the mix and $20K seems like a stretch to me. Of course, with the rage being first-crop sires and Hill 'n Dale not shy about book size, I'm sure he'll get at least 140 mares next year.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-30-2008, 11:51 AM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
I'm not disagreeing on whether or not he will be successful, I just think he's more likely to be in Pennsylvania in five years than Kentucky.
I hear you, this horse has some put up some freakishly fast beyers, he also proved me wrong when he won Saturday. There is a market for sprinter sires, Lit De Justice, Orientate, and Speightstown just to name a few. He's a long lanky type certainly not built like the prototypical sprinter.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-30-2008, 04:48 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I hear you, this horse has some put up some freakishly fast beyers, he also proved me wrong when he won Saturday. There is a market for sprinter sires, Lit De Justice, Orientate, and Speightstown just to name a few. He's a long lanky type certainly not built like the prototypical sprinter.
There is a market for Lit de Justice?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-30-2008, 05:28 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There is a market for Lit de Justice?
Sire of 192 winners from 250 starters (76.8%), 14 SWs, earners of over $15,969,000 (Register page from last fall)? Yes, there is a market for him; not those who breed sales yearlings, but those who want solid, blue-collar racehorses are using him.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-30-2008, 07:01 PM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There is a market for Lit de Justice?
He's got a few horses running in North America from what I have seen, he's probably turned out to be only a mediocre sire, however I do see his name pop up seemingly alot in the past performances. Yeah his market value is on the downside, I'll concede that point.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-30-2008, 05:18 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I hear you, this horse has some put up some freakishly fast beyers, he also proved me wrong when he won Saturday. There is a market for sprinter sires, Lit De Justice, Orientate, and Speightstown just to name a few. He's a long lanky type certainly not built like the prototypical sprinter.
Orientate and Lit de Justice were more than pure sprinters like Speightstown. They both had some success at 8f or more as younger horses before they were trained to be 6-7f furlong sprinters: Lit de Justice won a mile handicap, was second a head in a listed mile race, and third by 2l. in a G3 at 8f in France, while Orientate won the listed Indiana Derby (8.5f) and Sir Beaufort S (8f T) at 3. They just weren't G1 quality at longer distances.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 10-30-2008, 05:26 PM
Riot's Avatar
Riot Riot is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,153
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
How "commerical" is his pedigree really? That's my question.
Slight change of subject - I'm thinking the concept of "commercial" may start to be viewed differently over the next years. I'm sure the foal crop numbers are going to drop significantly. People can no longer afford to carry any marginal stock. You can get all the cheap horses you want, for less than the cost of "cheap", nowadays, it seems.

Not only will the sale prospect have to have a solid pedigree, but I'd think fairly good chance to make money on the track, rather than only in the shed. I think people may go back to looking at the potential of earning one's keep on the track as the most realistic "residual value", versus "we can always breed it if it doesn't run".

Imagine that - going back to buying racehorses for their potential on the track as racehorses, rather than for "afterwards"

What say you that buy and sell for a living now? Chuck?
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 10-30-2008, 11:23 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
Slight change of subject - I'm thinking the concept of "commercial" may start to be viewed differently over the next years. I'm sure the foal crop numbers are going to drop significantly. People can no longer afford to carry any marginal stock. You can get all the cheap horses you want, for less than the cost of "cheap", nowadays, it seems.

Not only will the sale prospect have to have a solid pedigree, but I'd think fairly good chance to make money on the track, rather than only in the shed. I think people may go back to looking at the potential of earning one's keep on the track as the most realistic "residual value", versus "we can always breed it if it doesn't run".

Imagine that - going back to buying racehorses for their potential on the track as racehorses, rather than for "afterwards"

What say you that buy and sell for a living now? Chuck?
The whole thing is too nebulous to figure out though I will say if you have cash you can get a whole lot more horse now for the same money than you could a year ago.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 10-30-2008, 05:55 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
How "commerical" is his pedigree really? That's my question.
Real Quiet was never the darling of the Bluegrass in the first place; he wasn't big and impressive enough. He was the tall, slender, lean distance runner (think Frank Shorter, Olympic marathoner) rather than the big-framed, muscle-bound bruiser that is in fashion these days. He never won a sprint, and didn't win a stakes at less than 1 3/16 after his 2yo year. His first couple of crops didn't have any impressive 2yos in them, so off to PA for him.

Damsire Dehere was champion 2yo but didn't train on after Florida at 3; by Deputy Minister from a Secretariat mare, not a standout sire. There is quality back in the female family - second dam a distance G3 turf SW, half-sister to a G2 Irish SW at 10f, who was second in the Irish Oaks; third dam was a listed SW in Italy who was a full sister to Gyr, who was a 12 G1 winner in France (and was second to Nijinsky in the Derby). When you look at it closely, Midnight Lute was bred to be a stayer.

Midnight Lute's well-chronicled soundness problems - of wind and limb - ought to make breeders very wary of using him. His size, which so impresses many people, is one of the things can contribute to limb unsoundness, because skinny TB legs can't take the impact of that much weight on them for long without injury.

Commerically, he doesn't look as desirable as some others in the field, like Street Boss (Street Cry is Hot, Hot, Hot!).
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 10-30-2008, 06:07 PM
paisjpq's Avatar
paisjpq paisjpq is offline
top predator.
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,020
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Real Quiet was never the darling of the Bluegrass in the first place; he wasn't big and impressive enough. He was the tall, slender, lean distance runner (think Frank Shorter, Olympic marathoner) rather than the big-framed, muscle-bound bruiser that is in fashion these days. He never won a sprint, and didn't win a stakes at less than 1 3/16 after his 2yo year. His first couple of crops didn't have any impressive 2yos in them, so off to PA for him.

Damsire Dehere was champion 2yo but didn't train on after Florida at 3; by Deputy Minister from a Secretariat mare, not a standout sire. There is quality back in the female family - second dam a distance G3 turf SW, half-sister to a G2 Irish SW at 10f, who was second in the Irish Oaks; third dam was a listed SW in Italy who was a full sister to Gyr, who was a 12 G1 winner in France (and was second to Nijinsky in the Derby). When you look at it closely, Midnight Lute was bred to be a stayer.

Midnight Lute's well-chronicled soundness problems - of wind and limb - ought to make breeders very wary of using him. His size, which so impresses many people, is one of the things can contribute to limb unsoundness, because skinny TB legs can't take the impact of that much weight on them for long without injury.

Commerically, he doesn't look as desirable as some others in the field, like Street Boss (Street Cry is Hot, Hot, Hot!).
it should, but I seriously doubt it does.

FWIW Candytuft (midnight Lutes dam) is a very correct mare, slightly above average size with good bone. It's one of the reasons that they took a risk in sending her to Real Quiet--since breeders were warned not to send anything to him that wasn't pretty well made.
__________________
Seek respect, not attention.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 10-31-2008, 09:29 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by paisjpq
it should, but I seriously doubt it does.

FWIW Candytuft (midnight Lutes dam) is a very correct mare, slightly above average size with good bone. It's one of the reasons that they took a risk in sending her to Real Quiet--since breeders were warned not to send anything to him that wasn't pretty well made.
I would breed to Mid Night Lute without a seconds thought. He is a monster and a dam good looking horse beside being fast as sheat. I also think that horses that overcome and run thru there issues have a level of toughness that could be beneficial.

Also Real Quiet is a fairly good broody stallion.... If he was 10k I would suggest our small filly would be an OK match.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 10-31-2008, 01:09 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
I would breed to Mid Night Lute without a seconds thought. He is a monster and a dam good looking horse beside being fast as sheat. I also think that horses that overcome and run thru there issues have a level of toughness that could be beneficial.

Also Real Quiet is a fairly good broody stallion.... If he was 10k I would suggest our small filly would be an OK match.
Horses that overcome are usually the worst stallions.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 10-31-2008, 03:06 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

[quote=Cannon Shell]Horses that overcome are usually the worst stallions.[/QUO

I guess you thing Ghostzapper will be a bust
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 10-31-2008, 03:16 PM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Horses that overcome are usually the worst stallions.
Candy Ride had his problems, his has been pretty live. Perhaps more than anything he and Lute are most simular in they ran sporadically but when they ran healthy they put up numbers that you don't often see. 120+ beyers.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 10-31-2008, 03:12 PM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
I would breed to Mid Night Lute without a seconds thought. He is a monster and a dam good looking horse beside being fast as sheat. I also think that horses that overcome and run thru there issues have a level of toughness that could be beneficial.

Also Real Quiet is a fairly good broody stallion.... If he was 10k I would suggest our small filly would be an OK match.
Who would have knew Tapit would be the leading freshman sire for 08?
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.