Curlin & the Classic

the_fat_man · #1 10-25-2008, 06:43 PM

The surface was fair. The best horses won.

DIRT is old news. Fair racing TRUMPS biases.

Danzig · #2 10-25-2008, 06:46 PM

i disagree. how one can call a synthetic surface a fair surface is beyond me.

King Glorious · #3 10-26-2008, 04:34 PM

There were eight main track races. That's 16 horses that were in the exactas. Of those 16:

-9 have never raced on actual dirt.

-all 16 had either won on grass or on synthetics before yesterday.

-5 had won stakes on grass (Ventura, Church Service, Rebellion, Raven's Pass, and Henrythenavigator).

-4 had won stakes on dirt (Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach, Midnight Lute).

Anyone that doesn't see how this stuff leans towards producing results favorable towards grass horses just doesn't want to see it.

Danzig · #4 10-26-2008, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There were eight main track races. That's 16 horses that were in the exactas. Of those 16:

-9 have never raced on actual dirt.

-all 16 had either won on grass or on synthetics before yesterday.

-5 had won stakes on grass (Ventura, Church Service, Rebellion, Raven's Pass, and Henrythenavigator).

-4 had won stakes on dirt (Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach, Midnight Lute).

Anyone that doesn't see how this stuff leans towards producing results favorable towards grass horses just doesn't want to see it.

interesting stuff. especially the figure that only 1/4th had won on dirt, compared to all 16 having won on turf or awt previously.

zippyneedsawin · #5 10-28-2008, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The surface was fair. The best horses won.

DIRT is old news. Fair racing TRUMPS biases.

Hey trip king, do you think Albarado moved a little early with Curlin?

Smooth Operator · #6 10-28-2008, 12:07 PM

Wouldn't have mattered when Albarado decided to ask him. The two superior Euros would've still left him in their dust at some point in the stretch, imo.

Asmussen can say what he wants about it being a 'turf race', but, imo, the mandatory 'roid testing this year and the fact that Curlie finally lined up against a couple legit G1 performers had more to do with his sound defeat than the synthetic surface.

Smooth Operator · #7 10-28-2008, 01:39 PM

It's a very fair question, DaHoss9698 ... and, frankly, I'm not convinced that Curlie would've been able to handle the Euros at, say, Churchill or Belmont. Heck, he was barely beating mediocrities like Wanderin Boy and Past the Point in his dirt races this season. And his speed figures (at least his Beyers) have been nothing to write home about.

He simply doesn't seem to be as formidable when he's not getting a regular 'roid fix ... like he did last season.

By the way, was it hard tearing up your $2.00 win ticket on Curlie last Saturday? lol

jms62 · #8 10-28-2008, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

It's a very fair question, DaHoss9698 ... and, frankly, I'm not convinced that Curlie would've been able to handle the Euros at, say, Churchill or Belmont. Heck, he was barely beating mediocrities like Wanderin Boy and Past the Point in his dirt races this season. And his speed figures (at least his Beyers) have been nothing to write home about.

He simply doesn't seem to be as formidable when he's not getting a regular 'roid fix ... like he did last season.

By the way, was it hard tearing up your $2.00 win ticket on Curlie last Saturday? lol

My mind is numb... Exactly when was the last Euro horse to win a Breeders cup race on dirt ?

King Glorious · #9 10-28-2008, 03:55 PM

I know they weren't wins but there were definitely some winning efforts put in by Sakhee and Giant's Causeway in the 2000 and 2001 Classics. Swain in the 1998 one too if he doesn't try to visit the grandstand.

slotdirt · #10 10-29-2008, 09:31 AM

Didn't we have this same steroid argument with Big Brown sometime in the general vicinity of the Preakness and Belmont, and didn't Cannon Shell pretty much poke holes in every theory out there that steroids drastically improve a horse's performance?

Smooth Operator · #11 10-29-2008, 09:32 AM

Lol ... come on, Duh-Hoss9698, just admit it ... Curlie didn't improve as a 4-year-old because they took away his Winny.

Thankfully, though, we got to see the REAL Curlie this year. A Curlie which struggled to get by turf titans like Wanderin Boy and Past the Point ... a Curlie which threw sub-par BSFs ... and a Curlie which got his head handed to him by a couple Euros in the BCC.

Such things never would've happened to the old, pharmacologically-altered Curlie…

King Glorious · #12 10-28-2008, 02:23 PM

My opinion is that the surface didn't get him beaten nor did any premature moves. I thought it was the same move he made at Saratoga and Belmont. The difference was that this wasn't Past the Point and Wanderin Boy he was facing in the stretch. These were two proven top class horses that had a surface that they could take to. Curlin's never looked to be that type that has that quick acceleration that you need to win turf races or synthetic track races since they play like turf. I think that if he was facing the same fields he had faced in NY this year in the BC Classic, he would have won the same way he did those two races. It's sort of like Cigar in 1995/96. He didn't regress at all in 1996. Look at the horses he was facing in 1995. When he faced those same horses in the 1996 Woodward, he won the same way, with the same ease he did in 1995. But when he was facing grade one horses like Skip Away, Louis Quatorze, and Alphabet Soup, those horses weren't as easy to run away from in the lane. Curlin didn't regress this year or move too soon in the BC. He just didn't progress and he faced better horses in the BC.

DaHoss says that his numbers this year are on par with his numbers from last year, minus that BC Classic. I don't know what he would have gotten in the Dubai race but I know that none of his other figures reached the 114 he got last year in the JCGC. They were in the same area though (112 Woodward, 111 JCGC). That's part of the problem though. Generally, we expect horses to improve from their 2yo year to their 3yo year and also from their 3yo year to their 4yo year. How many times do we bemoan the early retirements of our 3yo stars and wonder how much better they would have been as a 4yo? Here, we got a chance to see one continue on and he didn't improve.

Smooth Operator · #13 10-28-2008, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Hilarious. My stomach hurts from laughing so hard. Especially from someone who has a lot to say behind a keyboard, but clearly won't back that opinion up with a wager. We get it. You don't like Curlin. Change the record already...Oh and for the record, Curlin's beyers this year on dirt are on par with his numbers from last year, minus the freaky performance in the Classic. But, I'm sure you knew that.

Lol ... yeah, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that the colt hasn't improved as a 4-year-old. Frankly, it's pretty embarrassing that his numbers this year are just "on par" with the ones he threw as a 3yo.

Can you imagine if GZ's Beyers at ages 4 and 5 would've stayed "on par" with those he earned at 3? lol

Could the fact that he wasn't on a 'roid regimen this season have anything ... anything at all ... to do with this embarrassing situation, DaHoss9698?