How does one approach this?

[dean smith]

Two cents from deep in the peanut gallery:

Maybe you guys are over-thinking the surface angle. You're psyching yourselves out. You would think this "how-he-takes-to-the-track" nonsense is the only factor in winning a race. If a jockey rams his ride up another horses ass and behind a wall of three others to finish eighth, everyone will hollar, "he didn't like the surface at all." But is that really the case? Everyone is talking about this synthetic surface like the Breeder's Cup is being run over broken glass on the moon. If anything, I'll try and find a reason a 15/1 might "take to the track" and emerge from the chaos of these fifteen horse stampedes, and try and find some of those big payouts you mentioned -- not why some favorite won't.