Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

Originally Posted by Linny

Hoss, if the discussion bores you, move on.

Henry and Duke may be a bit "over the top" after long campaigns. Duke is a proven 10f horse that won 5 consecutive G1's this year before his drubbing in the Arc. Is he past his best or did the race not shape up right or were Zarkava, Youmzain (who he's handled easily) and Soldier of Fortune just better right no?. Honestly, Zarkava is a beast and Youmzain an opportunist. Soldier will likely go as the favorite in the BCTurf.
This year's 3yo's in Europe are quite good, topped by Zarkava but with New Approach and Goldikova high rated too. Duke may have been taking advantage of the fact that Soldier of Fortune took the summer off, meaning he could simply gallop about picking on Youmzain. (Like what Curlin has done here.)
As for the milers, Henry and Raven's Pass, I don't care for either. I've been waiting to see Raven come for the Mile and now they stretch and change surface, no good, IMO. I tend to think that high class Euro's can stretch out in the US, for 2 reasons. First, a decent Euro will usually beat and very good American in grass racing. Their horses and significantly better than ours. (Red Rocks, had he stayed sound could have dominated the US grass scene this year and he's no better than G3 over there.) Second, a horse with the built in fitness acquired from racing and traning on hilly courses will often carry his "best race" a bit farther when going onto a flat US turf course. If Raven went in the Mile it would be a showdown between Goldikova and Raven's Pass and would have been a great race. Now we get an Elusive Quality trying to stretch a 1/4 mile past his longest ever distance while switching to a surface he's never run on.
Henry was a monster at a straightaway mile in the Guineas, handling Raven and all others. Maybe his spring/early summer took a toll as he was easily handled by Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin, a key G1 race. Next out, Raven got the jump on Henry (who had made the 1st move and held of Raven in the earlier races between them) and beat him. Henry has done better with firmer turf and being by Kingmambo (himself a miler) I think he may have a better shot at 10f than Raven's Pass. Henry's dam is by Sadler's Wells so I wouldn't be shocked if 10f was within his range. (In fact it's not unusual in Europe for a top 3yo miler to train on to be a 10-12f horse at 4.) The question is his current condition and how he handles the Pro-Ride.
At anything but a HUGE price, I'd be less than thrilled with the Euros in the Classic.

am i crazy not to like any euorpean in any race ?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hrfan

am i crazy not to like any euorpean in any race ?

Have you looked at all of the PPs yet?

Originally Posted by miraja2

Have you looked at all of the PPs yet?

i have been looking for 2 days now.
why ?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hrfan

i have been looking for 2 days now.
why ?

Well, because it seems a bit odd to start tossing a bunch of horses and making selections before you even know for sure who is going to be in the race. For example, it is usually smart to try to determine what the pace of a race figures to be before you start making slections. Considering that we don't even know for sure who will be running in all of these races yet, you can't really have the foggiest clue what the pace scenario for a couple of these races.
That strikes me as somewhat important.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well, because it seems a bit odd to start tossing a bunch of horses and making selections before you even know for sure who is going to be in the race. For example, it is usually smart to try to determine what the pace of a race figures to be before you start making slections. Considering that we don't even know for sure who will be running in all of these races yet, you can't really have the foggiest clue what the pace scenario for a couple of these races.
That strikes me as somewhat important.

It doesn't really take a rocket scientist to figure out which 14 are going to get into these races so you have a pretty good idea of who is going to run at this point, especially since we know first and second preference for everyone. Sure there could be a few late injuries like Red Giant that changes things but that can happen between entries and the race anyways.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It doesn't really take a rocket scientist to figure out which 14 are going to get into these races so you have a pretty good idea of who is going to run at this point, especially since we know first and second preference for everyone. Sure there could be a few late injuries like Red Giant that changes things but that can happen between entries and the race anyways.

True, but I just don't really see the point in handicapping ANY race before it is drawn. I rarely, if ever, handicap a race until at least the day before it is run. The more you know about who is actually in the race, all recent works, post positions etc., the better.
Even if we did know for sure who was going to be in all of the races (which we do not), we still don't know what the post positions are. Now, in my opinion, post position is pretty meaningless in the vast majority of all horse races, but in races with larger fields - and some of the BC races fit that description - it could play a role in dictating who will be forced to gun for the lead, who is at risk of getting caught wide, etc. This is the kind of stuff I like to know before I start handicapping.
I guess there is nothing really wrong with handicapping races before they are drawn, but it seems like a bit of a waste of time given the fact that I think a good handicapper would need to look carefully at the race AFTER it is drawn anyway.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

True, but I just don't really see the point in handicapping ANY race before it is drawn. I rarely, if ever, handicap a race until at least the day before it is run. The more you know about who is actually in the race, all recent works, post positions etc., the better.
Even if we did know for sure who was going to be in all of the races (which we do not), we still don't know what the post positions are. Now, in my opinion, post position is pretty meaningless in the vast majority of all horse races, but in races with larger fields - and some of the BC races fit that description - it could play a role in dictating who will be forced to gun for the lead, who is at risk of getting caught wide, etc. This is the kind of stuff I like to know before I start handicapping.
I guess there is nothing really wrong with handicapping races before they are drawn, but it seems like a bit of a waste of time given the fact that I think a good handicapper would need to look carefully at the race AFTER it is drawn anyway.

Of course you need to go back and take another look once the official entries come out. I'm certainly not putting together actual wagers now but I think there is a benefit to capping through the races to get an idea of the horses' past performances and who will be potential pace factors. And usually when the final entries do come out there are very few adjustments that need to be made since there are very few surprises between the pre-entries and final entries.

So I don't see any problem with discussing the races now. Of course if you are just picking the horses' names that you recognize it is largely useless, but that has nothing to do with whether or not entries are out.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hrfan

am i crazy not to like any euorpean in any race ?

Only the Giant's Causeways

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Only the Giant's Causeways

i do not like any Causeway on BC day, not even Carriage Trail

[Linny]

Originally Posted by hrfan

am i crazy not to like any euorpean in any race ?

Do you not like Goldikova in the Mile or any of the juvies? Soldier of Fortune? None at all?

Originally Posted by Linny

Do you not like Goldikova in the Mile or any of the juvies? Soldier of Fortune? None at all?

NONE OF THEM....
WELL WAIT, maybe Pursuit of Glory a little, but thats reaLLy it.
In the mile i like War Monger,Daytona, and maybe Kip Deville

Solider of Fortune not at all..........
dancing forever, grand couturier and maybe red rocks

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I just wish you actually bet. It's one thing to spew awful opinions on the net and a whole other to put your money where your mouth is.

War Monger? Dancing Forever? Daytona? It's like you look at the entries and see which names you recognize.

all top class american turf horses at one point, all have decent angles coming in and all will be good prices.
you are USELESS

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are these angles you are speaking of? Educate me...

daytona is a horse for the course and will be a huge price..
Shugs horse, is getting back to a firm turf, and is worth a play, at another huge price, Red Rocks, and the Sword Dancer winner are the 2 horses to beat.

[Linny]

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

what league was Red Rocks in the first time he won this race ?
Also Europe's best are running in the Classic, correct ?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Red Rocks has displayed a preference for firm turf, which may help explain why he's struggled in Europe and ran well vs. Curlin here. . .

[Danzig]

i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf. not all horses like that, and come here to find firmer ground. and of course running on lasix helps as well. comparing their best turfers to our best could be the apples vs oranges type comparison-kind of like when you have curlin vs the top euros. how do you really decide who's better, since a top turf horse generally won't face a top dirt horse?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are these angles you are speaking of? Educate me...

He can't win now since he's carrying mush weight, but he's right- Daytona was certainly live at a price. The last time I liked a Cali miler who I gave up on because he had a mediocre final prep, he won at 17-1 (Singletary).

Originally Posted by philcski

He can't win now since he's carrying mush weight, but he's right- Daytona was certainly live at a price. The last time I liked a Cali miler who I gave up on because he had a mediocre final prep, he won at 17-1 (Singletary).

Mush weight ? You must be super educated like HOSS, to have me liking a horse as a betting angle. I thought you were better then this.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I hear ya. The more I look at him, I can see a case made for Daytona. If Thorn Song is unable to keep him honest, he could do some damage. I'm not sure he'll be the huge price people are expecting though. Goldikova is going to be very tough I think. I'm not sure what his odds are going to be, but I think Whatsthescript is going to run well also. He has run very well when fresh in the past and his last race was super.

Thorn Song ????? OMG