Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[Bobby Fischer]

Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, Raven’s Pass


I KNOW some of you guys are familiar with these horses, or have an opinion on them regarding the classic?

Lets talk about the 3 invaders in the BC.

[Bobby Fischer]

I think the invaders deserve as much respect and thorough handicapping as is given foreign shippers into races like BC Turf and Turf Mile.

I have some rough ideas about these guys' correct me, debate, offer your own etc...

Duke of Marmalade – might have a little tactical speed, has more experience at distances a little longer than a mile. Seems consistent. Maybe not a top class 12 furlong Turf Horse - but pretty good, and very tough intermediate distances, strong looking solid animal

Henrythenavigator – did he peak around the 2,000 guineas? nice looking horse, game in the stretch, likes a firm ground, Seems very close to Raven's Pass

Raven’s Pass – maybe a slightly later developer, just now reaching a peak? Seemed that riding tactics played a role in duel with HTN? = wanted to get first run..

Oh my god.

[Quiet Chris]

All three are very live basically because they have a huge class edge over everyone except Curlin. Duke looks very live at this distance, but I think Raven's Pass will put in the best showing of the three. He gets Frankie Dettori and I like the fact that he is an Elusive Quality.

[GPK]

I'm thinking after this we can discuss the merits of Jelly Roll Rumble and his chances in the Dirt Marathon

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by GPK

I'm thinking after this we can discuss the merits of Jelly Roll Rumble and his chances in the Dirt Marathon

I'm missing something here. What's wrong with the topic of this thread? Seems useful enough for me.

--Dunbar

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm missing something here. What's wrong with the topic of this thread? Seems useful enough for me.

--Dunbar

It'd be useful if the author, and the contributors, had a CLUE. Last time Fischer gave out a winner, the Berlin Wall was still up. Yet, he insists on offering his opinion on just about everything. Come on Bobby, let's put those PUERILE PACE FIGURES to use. Or that innovative show wagering system.

As for Quiet Chris: how did he escape my iggy bin?

And notice that when Fischer OPINES, DaHoss is not far behind.

[Pedigree Ann]

Raven's Pass is one tough customer; he doesn't go under without a fight. His losses, apart from those at the straight track at Newmarket, are none of them over 1.5 lengths. He was very good early at 2, and was beaten only a head by champion 2yo and subsequent Derby winner New Approach in the Dewhurst S(G1), which is Britain's championship event for 2yos. He went a long stretch over the spring and summer without a win (behind Henry 3 times), but seemed to have taken heart from his G3 win in August to finally peg back Henry in the QEII and may be maturing later than that one. His half-brother Gigawatt certainly seems to have gone through a 'dead zone' at three after having been a SW at 2 before having his best years as an older horse; he was a dirt horse AND a turf horse.

The major knock against Raven's Pass is that he has never run at a distance beyond 8f. Sire Elusive Quality and half-bro Gigawatt were also milers, so one must wonder about his effectiveness at 10f. But his quality is quite high - they have a darned good group of 3yos in Europe this year - which can carry milers another couple furlongs beyond their optimum trip. And, oh yes, Raven's Pass has also won on a left-handed course.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Can someone tell me what The Closeted Man just said. He's in my IGGY bin, so I can't read it. Does everyone here know about TRAKUS? I do. What about BIKE RIDING? I know about that too. I have also shown unlimited ways to BLAME OTHERS for my obvious shortcomings when it comes to "gambling". I've also only been following the sport for a few years, but I'll tell you all about it, because I ride a BIKE. I hate ANNOUNCERS. Have I mentioned that before? I also love telling people about MY IGGY BIN. Have I mentioned that? Jerkoff....

Hoss,
I'm trying to find the head on replay of your post.....and I can't .......damn when is the technology going to catch up........crap it must be the jockey's fault.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Can someone tell me what The Closeted Man just said. He's in my IGGY bin, so I can't read it. Does everyone here know about TRAKUS? I do. What about BIKE RIDING? I know about that too. I have also shown unlimited ways to BLAME OTHERS for my obvious shortcomings when it comes to "gambling". I've also only been following the sport for a few years, but I'll tell you all about it, because I ride a BIKE. I hate ANNOUNCERS. Have I mentioned that before? I also love telling people about MY IGGY BIN. Have I mentioned that? Jerkoff....

top shelf..

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This has all the makings of a classic.

good input on the race

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Thanks. Shouldn't you be making fake bets, or begging me for help through pm?

more good input on the race. your on a roll

[Linny]

Hoss, if the discussion bores you, move on.

Henry and Duke may be a bit "over the top" after long campaigns. Duke is a proven 10f horse that won 5 consecutive G1's this year before his drubbing in the Arc. Is he past his best or did the race not shape up right or were Zarkava, Youmzain (who he's handled easily) and Soldier of Fortune just better right no?. Honestly, Zarkava is a beast and Youmzain an opportunist. Soldier will likely go as the favorite in the BCTurf.
This year's 3yo's in Europe are quite good, topped by Zarkava but with New Approach and Goldikova high rated too. Duke may have been taking advantage of the fact that Soldier of Fortune took the summer off, meaning he could simply gallop about picking on Youmzain. (Like what Curlin has done here.)
As for the milers, Henry and Raven's Pass, I don't care for either. I've been waiting to see Raven come for the Mile and now they stretch and change surface, no good, IMO. I tend to think that high class Euro's can stretch out in the US, for 2 reasons. First, a decent Euro will usually beat and very good American in grass racing. Their horses and significantly better than ours. (Red Rocks, had he stayed sound could have dominated the US grass scene this year and he's no better than G3 over there.) Second, a horse with the built in fitness acquired from racing and traning on hilly courses will often carry his "best race" a bit farther when going onto a flat US turf course. If Raven went in the Mile it would be a showdown between Goldikova and Raven's Pass and would have been a great race. Now we get an Elusive Quality trying to stretch a 1/4 mile past his longest ever distance while switching to a surface he's never run on.
Henry was a monster at a straightaway mile in the Guineas, handling Raven and all others. Maybe his spring/early summer took a toll as he was easily handled by Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin, a key G1 race. Next out, Raven got the jump on Henry (who had made the 1st move and held of Raven in the earlier races between them) and beat him. Henry has done better with firmer turf and being by Kingmambo (himself a miler) I think he may have a better shot at 10f than Raven's Pass. Henry's dam is by Sadler's Wells so I wouldn't be shocked if 10f was within his range. (In fact it's not unusual in Europe for a top 3yo miler to train on to be a 10-12f horse at 4.) The question is his current condition and how he handles the Pro-Ride.
At anything but a HUGE price, I'd be less than thrilled with the Euros in the Classic.

Originally Posted by Linny

Hoss, if the discussion bores you, move on.

Henry and Duke may be a bit "over the top" after long campaigns. Duke is a proven 10f horse that won 5 consecutive G1's this year before his drubbing in the Arc. Is he past his best or did the race not shape up right or were Zarkava, Youmzain (who he's handled easily) and Soldier of Fortune just better right no?. Honestly, Zarkava is a beast and Youmzain an opportunist. Soldier will likely go as the favorite in the BCTurf.
This year's 3yo's in Europe are quite good, topped by Zarkava but with New Approach and Goldikova high rated too. Duke may have been taking advantage of the fact that Soldier of Fortune took the summer off, meaning he could simply gallop about picking on Youmzain. (Like what Curlin has done here.)
As for the milers, Henry and Raven's Pass, I don't care for either. I've been waiting to see Raven come for the Mile and now they stretch and change surface, no good, IMO. I tend to think that high class Euro's can stretch out in the US, for 2 reasons. First, a decent Euro will usually beat and very good American in grass racing. Their horses and significantly better than ours. (Red Rocks, had he stayed sound could have dominated the US grass scene this year and he's no better than G3 over there.) Second, a horse with the built in fitness acquired from racing and traning on hilly courses will often carry his "best race" a bit farther when going onto a flat US turf course. If Raven went in the Mile it would be a showdown between Goldikova and Raven's Pass and would have been a great race. Now we get an Elusive Quality trying to stretch a 1/4 mile past his longest ever distance while switching to a surface he's never run on.
Henry was a monster at a straightaway mile in the Guineas, handling Raven and all others. Maybe his spring/early summer took a toll as he was easily handled by Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin, a key G1 race. Next out, Raven got the jump on Henry (who had made the 1st move and held of Raven in the earlier races between them) and beat him. Henry has done better with firmer turf and being by Kingmambo (himself a miler) I think he may have a better shot at 10f than Raven's Pass. Henry's dam is by Sadler's Wells so I wouldn't be shocked if 10f was within his range. (In fact it's not unusual in Europe for a top 3yo miler to train on to be a 10-12f horse at 4.) The question is his current condition and how he handles the Pro-Ride.
At anything but a HUGE price, I'd be less than thrilled with the Euros in the Classic.

am i crazy not to like any euorpean in any race ?

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Linny

Hoss, if the discussion bores you, move on.

Henry and Duke may be a bit "over the top" after long campaigns. Duke is a proven 10f horse that won 5 consecutive G1's this year before his drubbing in the Arc. Is he past his best or did the race not shape up right or were Zarkava, Youmzain (who he's handled easily) and Soldier of Fortune just better right no?. Honestly, Zarkava is a beast and Youmzain an opportunist. Soldier will likely go as the favorite in the BCTurf.
This year's 3yo's in Europe are quite good, topped by Zarkava but with New Approach and Goldikova high rated too. Duke may have been taking advantage of the fact that Soldier of Fortune took the summer off, meaning he could simply gallop about picking on Youmzain. (Like what Curlin has done here.)
As for the milers, Henry and Raven's Pass, I don't care for either. I've been waiting to see Raven come for the Mile and now they stretch and change surface, no good, IMO. I tend to think that high class Euro's can stretch out in the US, for 2 reasons. First, a decent Euro will usually beat and very good American in grass racing. Their horses and significantly better than ours. (Red Rocks, had he stayed sound could have dominated the US grass scene this year and he's no better than G3 over there.) Second, a horse with the built in fitness acquired from racing and traning on hilly courses will often carry his "best race" a bit farther when going onto a flat US turf course. If Raven went in the Mile it would be a showdown between Goldikova and Raven's Pass and would have been a great race. Now we get an Elusive Quality trying to stretch a 1/4 mile past his longest ever distance while switching to a surface he's never run on.
Henry was a monster at a straightaway mile in the Guineas, handling Raven and all others. Maybe his spring/early summer took a toll as he was easily handled by Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin, a key G1 race. Next out, Raven got the jump on Henry (who had made the 1st move and held of Raven in the earlier races between them) and beat him. Henry has done better with firmer turf and being by Kingmambo (himself a miler) I think he may have a better shot at 10f than Raven's Pass. Henry's dam is by Sadler's Wells so I wouldn't be shocked if 10f was within his range. (In fact it's not unusual in Europe for a top 3yo miler to train on to be a 10-12f horse at 4.) The question is his current condition and how he handles the Pro-Ride.
At anything but a HUGE price, I'd be less than thrilled with the Euros in the Classic.

.......the duke is the real deal and should hit the board.

[quote=DaHoss9698]No problem mom. There's an ignore function. You don't like what I have to say, I'd suggest using it.[/QUOTE

o boy

[CSC]

I will be only betting Europeans for the turf races, I'm going to let the Euro's beat me on dirt. Believe me I have learned from my past wagers.