Watched Flower Alley work this morning

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't consider a month to be that short term. If you take a random set of 18 races for Pletcher horses I doubt he's gone 1-18 many times if ever in the last however many years. The job of a trainer is to spot their horses for the right race and train them for their best effort on that day. Since Albertrani trains fewer horses than Pletcher, he should have his horses even better prepared and better spotted for those 18 starts than Pletcher for how ever many starts he's had this meet.

Pletcher wins at a higher clip than Albertrani. Pletcher is winnig at a 28% clip this year. I agree that he would be less likely to go 1 for 18 than Albertrani who is a 20% winner.

A trainer who wins at a 20% clip is doing very well. That's a very good win percentage. You have to remember that if a guy is a 20% trainer, he will have some lucky streaks where he may win 7 races out of 20. But if he wins 7 out of 20 sometimes, that means that other times he will go 1 for 20. If you went 7 for 20 and then 1 for 20, you would be 8 for 40 which is 20%.

By the way, how do you explain Frankel being 3 for 63 in Breeder's Cup races. He's obviously trying his hardest in these races. Does it mean that he's not that good of a trainer? I don't think so.

[hockey2315]

[quote=Rupert Pupkin]Pletcher wins at a higher clip than Albertrani. Pletcher is winnig at a 28% clip this year. I agree that he would be less likely to go 1 for 18 than Albertrani who is a 20% winner.
QUOTE]

Pletcher's win percentage is 21.3%

[Rupert Pupkin]

[quote=hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Pletcher wins at a higher clip than Albertrani. Pletcher is winnig at a 28% clip this year. I agree that he would be less likely to go 1 for 18 than Albertrani who is a 20% winner.
QUOTE]

Pletcher's win percentage is 21.3%

I'm talking about for the year. Drf.com has Pletcher at 218 wins from 791 starts which adds up to 28%.

[hockey2315]

oops sorry about that. . . I just totally ignored "this year" . . . that only strengthens my notion to back Pletcher over Albertrani- he's beating him in the short term and long term. . .

[hockey2315]

Here's how I see it-

Performances until now: even- maybe a slight edge to Bern

Pedigree: BGC

Trainer: BGC

Jockey: BGC

Experience: BGC

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Here's how I see it-

Performances until now: even- maybe a slight edge to Bern

Pedigree: BGC

Trainer: BGC

Jockey: BGC

Experience: BGC

I give BGC a shot. I was very impressed with his last race. I wasn't overly impressed with any of his previous races, but he looked like he really moved to the next level in the Haskell. I still would give Bernardini the edge though.