Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

brockguy · #1 10-09-2008, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Not saying he's up to it but in other parts of the world, they know how to train horses to be ready off of long layoffs like this. I have this feeling that if he loses here, it won't be because he's not fit.

Japanese trainers arent the best at it though,,

Betsy · #2 10-09-2008, 01:13 PM

I love this horse and I think he's talented, but his owner is insane. I trust the horse to be fit, but not fit for a race like the Classic. What is the point - he's going to get thrashed, very likely. I think he can develop into a very good horse next year, so why not run him in a lesser stakes.....? Well, I guess I can answer my own question; the owner's ego is too big to allow it.

King Glorious · #3 10-09-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

I love this horse and I think he's talented, but his owner is insane. I trust the horse to be fit, but not fit for a race like the Classic. What is the point - he's going to get thrashed, very likely. I think he can develop into a very good horse next year, so why not run him in a lesser stakes.....? Well, I guess I can answer my own question; the owner's ego is too big to allow it.

I'll tell you why I think this is silly. First, either he's fit to run 10f or he isn't. The company he'll be keeping won't have anything to do with his level of fitness. It will be the deciding factor in whether or not he can win but not how fit he is. Second, why would losing here stop him from being a good horse next year? If that's the case, should every horse that loses in the Classic retire immediately because they no longer have a chance of being a good horse next year?

letswastemoney · #4 10-09-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'll tell you why I think this is silly. First, either he's fit to run 10f or he isn't. The company he'll be keeping won't have anything to do with his level of fitness. It will be the deciding factor in whether or not he can win but not how fit he is. Second, why would losing here stop him from being a good horse next year? If that's the case, should every horse that loses in the Classic retire immediately because they no longer have a chance of being a good horse next year?

Well he does have AP Indy in his blood and both of his siblings won the Belmont, so the distance should be up his ally if he's ready. I can see him running a 100 beyer here or so, which probably won't be good enough to win, but maybe in the money.

Antitrust32 · #5 10-09-2008, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well he does have AP Indy in his blood and both of his siblings won the Belmont, so the distance should be up his ally if he's ready. I can see him running a 100 beyer here or so, which probably won't be good enough to win, but maybe in the money.

LOL on the Poly, a 100 beyer is winning the race by 15 lengths.

letswastemoney · #6 10-09-2008, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

LOL on the Poly, a 100 beyer is winning the race by 15 lengths.

Oh come on...I realize synthetic figures are lower but I believe in the BC Classic a 105-110 will take it.

Antitrust32 · #7 10-09-2008, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Oh come on...I realize synthetic figures are lower but I believe in the BC Classic a 105-110 will take it.

I wasnt being very serious LOL. How many triple diget beyers have been run on synthetics though?

SniperSB23 · #8 10-09-2008, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

LOL on the Poly, a 100 beyer is winning the race by 15 lengths.

Just a guess but I'd actually think the Beyers will be much higher for the BC. The synthetics equalize all horses. So when you have low level horses only running a second slower than stakes horses it is tough to give the stakes horses a big figure and then have to give the low level horses a 90+ figure. When you have a card predominantly made up of stakes horses though then it is easier to give bigger figures since the horses on the card are all capable of running 90+ speed figures.

Antitrust32 · #9 10-09-2008, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just a guess but I'd actually think the Beyers will be much higher for the BC. The synthetics equalize all horses. So when you have low level horses only running a second slower than stakes horses it is tough to give the stakes horses a big figure and then have to give the low level horses a 90+ figure. When you have a card predominantly made up of stakes horses though then it is easier to give bigger figures since the horses on the card are all capable of running 90+ speed figures.

that makes sense. Its funny we are having our championship race run on a surface that makes slow horses look faster and fast horses look slower.

Go Between or Well Armed wins Classic

Handicappy · #10 10-15-2008, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just a guess but I'd actually think the Beyers will be much higher for the BC. The synthetics equalize all horses. So when you have low level horses only running a second slower than stakes horses it is tough to give the stakes horses a big figure and then have to give the low level horses a 90+ figure. When you have a card predominantly made up of stakes horses though then it is easier to give bigger figures since the horses on the card are all capable of running 90+ speed figures.

I very well think you'll see a 105-110. Horses have been working very fast over the surface. Curlin just scampered over the surface between races in 59. Not all synthetic surfaces are equal. The Beyers do relate to the caliber of the competition but also the speed as compared to other races over the surface. If they all run like slugs, slugs they will be but I think it will be exciting. Curlin will have to overcome the likely lack of early speed in the race. I do love Curlin in the race. Been watching him since he came to NY and looks like he is rounding out to finish a storied career with a monster performance.

King Glorious · #11 10-09-2008, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well he does have AP Indy in his blood and both of his siblings won the Belmont, so the distance should be up his ally if he's ready. I can see him running a 100 beyer here or so, which probably won't be good enough to win, but maybe in the money.

AP Indy retired years ago and I don't see what he did on the track having any factor in this race.

letswastemoney · #12 10-09-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

AP Indy retired years ago and I don't see what he did on the track having any factor in this race.

Well have you ever seen an AP Indy relative not like a longer distance? If AP Indy specializes in producing long distance runners and Better than Honour has produced 2 Belmont winners already, odds are Casino Drive's best distance will be longer.

King Glorious · #13 10-09-2008, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well have you ever seen an AP Indy relative not like a longer distance? If AP Indy specializes in producing long distance runners and Better than Honour has produced 2 Belmont winners already, odds are Casino Drive's best distance will be longer.

The odds may indeed be in that direction but they don't tell me what SHOULD happen.

Danzig · #14 10-09-2008, 05:51 PM

i think steve should have a 'silly' room for threads like this. hey, maybe tomcito can come to the classic too. that would make for a really, really great race.

Betsy · #15 10-09-2008, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'll tell you why I think this is silly. First, either he's fit to run 10f or he isn't. The company he'll be keeping won't have anything to do with his level of fitness. It will be the deciding factor in whether or not he can win but not how fit he is. Second, why would losing here stop him from being a good horse next year? If that's the case, should every horse that loses in the Classic retire immediately because they no longer have a chance of being a good horse next year?

Good points....I suppose I'm overplaying the "he'll have his confidence crushed " card, lol.

I just found out per the DRF that he's running on Sunday - that makes me feel a lot better.

ateamstupid · #16 10-09-2008, 04:08 PM

Sunday:

8TH (4:00)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $52,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Dakota Phone Bejarano R 120 L
2 Casino Drive Espinoza V 116
3 Gregorian Bay Garcia M 120 L
4 By Spot (BRZ) Valdivia J Jr 120 L
5 Informed Gryder A T 120 L
6 Sensational Score Rosario J 120 L
7 Asperity Sorenson D 120 L

Bobby Fischer · #17 10-09-2008, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sunday:

8TH (4:00)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $52,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Dakota Phone Bejarano R 120 L
2 Casino Drive Espinoza V 116
3 Gregorian Bay Garcia M 120 L
4 By Spot (BRZ) Valdivia J Jr 120 L
5 Informed Gryder A T 120 L
6 Sensational Score Rosario J 120 L
7 Asperity Sorenson D 120 L

this is no free ride

Sensational Score , and Informed are competitive