Curlin's Legacy

SniperSB23 · #1 10-01-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Curlin at least prove he was better than Street Sense and Hard Spun last year?

I think Curlin was better than Street Sense but I don't know if it can really be said it was proven. Street Sense beat Curlin decisively in the Derby, Curlin beat Street Sense by a head in the Preakness. People want to use the BC Classic as the tiebreaker but we all know that Street Sense hates the slop. Hell, he lost to Officer Rocket and Gotthelastlaugh on it during his champion 2yo season. And it isn't like Curlin was the only one to beat him in the Classic.

RolloTomasi · #2 10-01-2008, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'll preface this by saying I was a Street Sense guy all last year. I think if Curlin had gotten one more prep before the Derby, he would have won. I also think the Street Sense from May, was a lot different than the Street Sense the rest of the year. He tailed off in my opinion. I think it's pretty clear Curlin was and is the best of that crop.

You could argue Curlin tailed off, too (at least during the summer). Didn't everyone write him off as some sort of grinder after his modest Haskell effort?

Also, though they pad his resume now, weren't the JCGC and BC Classic wins considered mild upsets (in the sense that Lawyer Ron was odds-on at Belmont and Curlin was 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic) at the time?

Either way, had Street Sense returned at 4, I think he would have beaten Curlin more times than not in races contested at 9f. Further than that and the reverse would be likely.

ELA · #3 10-01-2008, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You could argue Curlin tailed off, too (at least during the summer). Didn't everyone write him off as some sort of grinder after his modest Haskell effort?

Also, though they pad his resume now, weren't the JCGC and BC Classic wins considered mild upsets (in the sense that Lawyer Ron was odds-on at Belmont and Curlin was 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic) at the time?

Either way, had Street Sense returned at 4, I think he would have beaten Curlin more times than not in races contested at 9f. Further than that and the reverse would be likely.

I don't know that the argument of Curlin tailing off is feasible, at least not to those who didn't write him off as a grinder-type or think he was beginning to tail off after the Haskell. Personally, I didn't write him off due to either, especially him being some sort of grinder. If the tailing off argument was out there, I think the JCGC put that to rest. To my surprise, I didn't hear the "grinder" argument. Most qualified opinions I heard were not along those lines at all. I also think during the summer, many people got caught up in the Lawyer Ron monster performances, and they were nothing short of being that. Maybe it was horse for course, a freak thing, or I don't know what.

As far as Street Sense coming back at 4 -- well, what should have, could have, would have . . . Unfortunately we'll never know. Last year, I thought throughout the year, Curlin was getting better. He was gaining experience, seasoning, battle scars, etc. Personally, I don't feel I can say the same thing about Street Sense.

I'm sorry it's something that has to be hypothesized. Excellent points though, and thanks.

Eric

King Glorious · #4 10-01-2008, 01:32 PM

I think Curlin was the top 3yo of last year but I don't think it was definititve. A short nose in the Preakness and he would have had a losing record against Street Sense. The dominance of the BC Classic is what seemed to make everyone think it was definitive but because of the track conditions, I don't know if you can say that. While I don't hold it against him that he lost to a filly in the Belmont because I thought that filly was top class, even if the results would have been reversed and it was his head in front at the wire, the tight finish in the race would have further proved that while he was the best, the margin was close.

As for this year, I'm not fooled. I haven't seen a better horse this year than I saw in the fall of last year. I like to see improvement from the 3yo to 4yo season and I just haven't. I've seen a horse that's beat up on third rate competition all year long. Obviously, who he faces is not something that's in his control but his performances are and they just haven't done it for me. The sad thing is that the state of the game is so bad right now that he's still the leading candidate for HOY.

I'd go with saying he was the best of last year's 3yo class. He is arguably among the top 10 of the 2000's (although off the top of my head, I just came up with six I'd put ahead of him and that was with little thought). One of the all-time greats? Not in the opinion of this guy. Of all of the horses that I've personally watched in the 22 years I've been following horses, I'd guess Curlin might fall in the 51-75 range. That's really disappointing to me because after watching his Arkansas Derby, I would have thought he was surely on his way to my personal all-time top 20, at least.

Slewbopper · #5 10-01-2008, 01:45 PM

After the DWC I was ready to anoint him as a great horse. His four races since have been nothing more than workmanlike. He does do one thing though. He wins. I don't think anyone can name a horse that came back from Dubai and performed at the same level. Cigar started tailing of a little. So did Silver Charm. Street Cry showed great promise but didn't win after the Foster. Pleasantly Perfect was affected. As was Roses in May.

With that said, I love the horse and hope he kicks ass in the BCC.

BTW, where the hell is Lincoln Fields?

King Glorious · #6 10-01-2008, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

After the DWC I was ready to anoint him as a great horse. His four races since have been nothing more than workmanlike. He does do one thing though. He wins. I don't think anyone can name a horse that came back from Dubai and performed at the same level. Cigar started tailing of a little. So did Silver Charm. Street Cry showed great promise but didn't win after the Foster. Pleasantly Perfect was affected. As was Roses in May.

With that said, I love the horse and hope he kicks ass in the BCC.

BTW, where the hell is Lincoln Fields?

I don't agree that Cigar tailed off. He just faced better horses in the fall of 1996 than he was facing in 1995. In 1995, the other horses to hit the board in the JCGC and BC Classic were Unaccounted For, Star Standard, and La Carriere. In 1996, it was Skip Away, Louis Quatorze, and Alphabet Soup. Compare the records of the two sets of horses. Perhaps if the two seasons had been switched around, Cigar would have never won 16 in a row and it would look like he got better in 1996. He ran his 1996 Woodward a touch faster than 1995. His 1996 JCGC was faster than the previous year also. Better competition will always make a horse look worse than when he's facing mediocre comp.

KirisClown · #7 10-01-2008, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't agree that Cigar tailed off. He just faced better horses in the fall of 1996 than he was facing in 1995. In 1995, the other horses to hit the board in the JCGC and BC Classic were Unaccounted For, Star Standard, and La Carriere. In 1996, it was Skip Away, Louis Quatorze, and Alphabet Soup. Compare the records of the two sets of horses. Perhaps if the two seasons had been switched around, Cigar would have never won 16 in a row and it would look like he got better in 1996. He ran his 1996 Woodward a touch faster than 1995. His 1996 JCGC was faster than the previous year also. Better competition will always make a horse look worse than when he's facing mediocre comp.

Good post.. I never agreed that Cigar tailed off.. If he did, where did his 96 Woodward effort come from?

Danzig · #8 10-01-2008, 05:00 PM

by the same token, his win over hard spun in the bcc was about the same as street sense in the derby. they all traded wins over each other. hard to say really who would have been best this year, since only one of the top five from last year is around. i think it may well have been more of the same.
certainly would have been more interesting than what we've had.

Linny · #9 10-01-2008, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

We're going to have to agree to disagree about this. I saw nothing in any of Street Sense's efforts after the Preakness that make me think he would have been trading decisions with Curlin. Looking back, I think that Preakness effort was the beginning of the end for him. He ran okay in the Jim Dandy and Travers. He also ran okay in that race at Turfway. But in my opinion, he was a different animal. While Curlin was getting better, he was declining. I know Curlin's Haskell was so-so. But nothing after that was.

I agree. SS was not very sound at 3 and Carl did a great job with him. Let's face it, while his Travers looked impressive, the horse he barely beat has not covered himself in glory since. In fact, I don't think Grasshopper has won a race since that allowance at the Spa. Hard Spun was never in danger from Street Sense at Turfway and while mud was not he's best surface, he was very dull at Monmouth.
Overall I'd say SS was never has good as he looked at Churchill and never as bad as he looked at Monmouth.

RolloTomasi · #10 10-01-2008, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

he was very dull at Monmouth.
Overall I'd say SS was never has good as he looked at Churchill and never as bad as he looked at Monmouth.

Yeah. He wasn't himself at Monmouth.

Probably cuz he never ran there...

3kings · #11 10-01-2008, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah. He wasn't himself at Monmouth.

Probably cuz he never ran there...

Didn't he run in the classic there last year?

RolloTomasi · #12 10-01-2008, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Wasn't the BC Classic there last year?

Brutal. I had it in my head that Linny was talking about Hard Spun in the Haskell. Talk about eating sh!t...

Calgon...take my post away!

RolloTomasi · #13 10-01-2008, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

We're going to have to agree to disagree about this. I saw nothing in any of Street Sense's efforts after the Preakness that make me think he would have been trading decisions with Curlin. Looking back, I think that Preakness effort was the beginning of the end for him. He ran okay in the Jim Dandy and Travers. He also ran okay in that race at Turfway. But in my opinion, he was a different animal. While Curlin was getting better, he was declining. I know Curlin's Haskell was so-so. But nothing after that was.

You're right as far as his Saratoga performances leaving a bit to be desired, but at Turfway, he was likely "prepping" (as he did at Keeneland), typical of Carl Nafzger leading up to big races (see Unbridled and Banshee Breeze also).

Even still, the Saratoga races can be forgiven in that the Jim Dandy was a comeback race and, though you can certainly disagree, the Travers was too far. In the BC Classic, he made his move alongside Curlin but the distance and likely the "tired horse" factor came into play (not to mention the surface).

Anyways, what was being assumed with Street Sense at 4 was that he would obviously get a break after the BC and would be 100% at the start of his campaign. I'd imagine he'd uncork efforts similar to the ones Victory Gallop displayed in 1999 (all 2 or 3 of them).