Watched Flower Alley work this morning

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. there will be all kinds of fluctautions. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

No, I didn't. I guess that means he's 1 for 18. If it gets much worse than this, I would have to agree with you that he may be in a little slump.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No, I didn't. I guess that means he's 1 for 18. If it gets much worse than this, I would have to agree with you that he may be in a little slump.

I already knew that you hadn't. I've been keeping track and knew what he was already.

[Sightseek]

I wouldn't bank on the in a slump theory....even Desmoreax wins one occasionally.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I wouldn't bank on the in a slump theory....even Desmoreax wins one occasionally.

LOL. And Mike Smith is in the Hall of Fame for that matter....

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

Unfortunately, pgardn, I'm already married.

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Unfortunately, pgardn, I'm already married.

So am I. I dont want any opposite gender talk. I want math talk woman. Im gelded and whupped every other way.

I love tote boards. Thats all I will say. I love em. Do tote boards turn you on?

You can answer that tomorrow, to bed for me. I gotta figure out the damn derivative by limit proof again early tomorrow. I always make some stupid mistake and I cant have these brilliant little 17 and 18 year olds catch me every darn year. The heavy math I dont need for physics. The power rule and U substitution is really all I need from calculus. And integration of course,but that will come in time.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So am I. I dont want any opposite gender talk. I want math talk woman. Im gelded and whupped every other way.

I love tote boards. Thats all I will say. I love em. Do tote boards turn you on?

You can answer that tomorrow, to bed for me. I gotta figure out the damn derivative by limit proof again early tomorrow. I always make some stupid mistake and I cant have these brilliant little 17 and 18 year olds catch me every darn year. The heavy math I dont need for physics. The power rule and U substitution is really all I need from calculus. And integration of course,but that will come in time.

Holy shiat... it is way too late (or early depending upon where you are) for that kind of math talk...

Let's stick to the opposite gender talk.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Some of you wouldn't know a great horse if he slapped you in the face, and he basically has and will again this weekend. The extra 1/16th of a mile is not going to make one bit of a difference with this horse. He was running incredibly strong at the end of the Preakness. No one was going to catch him because he is simply just too fast. I am willing to say that he probably is the best horse in the world right now, and will have his coming out party in November.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So am I. I dont want any opposite gender talk. I want math talk woman. Im gelded and whupped every other way.

I love tote boards. Thats all I will say. I love em. Do tote boards turn you on?

You can answer that tomorrow, to bed for me. I gotta figure out the damn derivative by limit proof again early tomorrow. I always make some stupid mistake and I cant have these brilliant little 17 and 18 year olds catch me every darn year. The heavy math I dont need for physics. The power rule and U substitution is really all I need from calculus. And integration of course,but that will come in time.

I love it when you talk dirty.

Seriously, though, my brother started to major in physics, but realized it wasn't the physics he loved; it was the math, so he does love the heavy stuff (he finally majored in statistics). I actually loved calculus, especially... story problems. Really.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Remember when Corinthian ran by First Samurai down in Florida like he was standing still and everyone thought he was a machine?

Same ****, different time of the year.......