Watched Flower Alley work this morning

#1 08-21-2006, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

bluegrass has an edge right now in my book, he's run 10f and longer this year, bernardini hasn't gone longer than in the preakness. it's interesting to me that this late in the year, a supposed hoy contender hasn't even run at the 'classic' distance yet. of course with his pedigree, you'd expect it not to be a problem...but then again he has no idea who his daddy is!

Bluegrass Cat has an edge?

...Wow, what a statement. Bernardini won a CLASSIC in a run-away in just his 4th start....I seriously doubt the extra sixteenth of a mile will bother this horse at all.

I am actually a Bluegrass Cat fan...I used him well in the Derby and hit nicely with him in the EX spot at 35-1...I loved him in the Belmont but he had a bad trip and that is probably what cost him from winning that race over Jazil IMO....BUT, he is not in the sae ballpark as Bernardini...he just isn't...

...he'll run his 4 on the sheets like usual and Bernardini will run around a scratch performance and dust him....he's just in another league - like Tiger right now on the PGA Tour..not that Vijay or Phil or any of those guys suck, but Tiger is simply in another talent galaxy from those guys, ad that is how I feel about Bernardini....

#2 08-21-2006, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Bluegrass Cat has an edge?

...Wow, what a statement. Bernardini won a CLASSIC in a run-away in just his 4th start....I seriously doubt the extra sixteenth of a mile will bother this horse at all.

I am actually a Bluegrass Cat fan...I used him well in the Derby and hit nicely with him in the EX spot at 35-1...I loved him in the Belmont but he had a bad trip and that is probably what cost him from winning that race over Jazil IMO....BUT, he is not in the sae ballpark as Bernardini...he just isn't...

...he'll run his 4 on the sheets like usual and Bernardini will run around a scratch performance and dust him....he's just in another league - like Tiger right now on the PGA Tour..not that Vijay or Phil or any of those guys suck, but Tiger is simply in another talent galaxy from those guys, ad that is how I feel about Bernardini....

All I know is that I would rather have Todd Pletcher in my corner on Saturday than anyone else. Apparently ole Tommy boy's meet isn't going so well. Guy has all that valuabel anbd expensive horseflesh in his barn and after 4 weeks he still sadly only has one win. I know you all couldnt wait to jump ugly on me after i ridiculed his job with Songster. Appears I know more as usual. one win in 4 weeks, geez thats just swell.

#3 08-21-2006, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

All I know is that I would rather have Todd Pletcher in my corner on Saturday than anyone else. Apparently ole Tommy boy's meet isn't going so well. Guy has all that valuabel anbd expensive horseflesh in his barn and after 4 weeks he still sadly only has one win. I know you all couldnt wait to jump ugly on me after i ridiculed his job with Songster. Appears I know more as usual. one win in 4 weeks, geez thats just swell.

Sure, Todd is probably a better trainer...no arguement there. But, a great horse is dangerous in any man's hands.....Just look at guys like Leroy Jolley and Bill Turner, etc....those guys couldn't win a one-horse race these days, but did fine when they had steam boats in there barns...

#4 08-21-2006, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Sure, Todd is probably a better trainer...no arguement there. But, a great horse is dangerous in any man's hands.....Just look at guys like Leroy Jolley and Bill Turner, etc....those guys couldn't win a one-horse race these days, but did fine when they had steam boats in there barns...

I expected a better argument Joel from all those just dying for him to win a race since I jumped all over him for a LOUSY job with Songster. Alas, he hasnt won a race since then. And please, with all the Sheikh horses I really don't wanna hear about his stock or lack of it. Fact is if you have to bet he or Todd on Saturday, well, you make the call. I know my money goes on the most competent trainer who always tries hard, Todd Pletcher.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #5 08-21-2006, 08:14 PM

well mike do you really want to call out tom...i think dini is the best horse in training right now..he gonna school all on travers day ..ill leave this board for ever if he doesent win sat.. and you need too take care of some loose end or there is gonna be a problem...simons guy is pissed

#6 08-21-2006, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

well mike do you really want to call out tom...i think dini is the best horse in training right now..he gonna school all on travers day ..ill leave this board for ever if he doesent win sat.. and you need too take care of some loose end or there is gonna be a problem...simons guy is pissed

I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #7 08-21-2006, 08:27 PM

[quote=oracle80]I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.[/QUOTE...there wont be one ..how can you compare the two..has never put two good runs together..check mate dini....

#8 08-21-2006, 08:32 PM

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.[/QUOTE...there wont be one ..how can you compare the two..has never put two good runs together..check mate dini....

That true Hooves he hasnt. But a guy I respect whos trained a few Storm cats told me the problem with training them is two fold. Number one they are unsound as a rule, many of them offset just like Daddy. Number two, many of them are just real hot blooded and mental cases, it takes a while for many of them to figure things out, a long while.
The problem is that number one often prevents number two from happening. In other words most of em break down and are finished before the lightbulb comes on over their heads and they figure out what it is that they are supposed to be doing. This one appears to have figured out the game and is still sound. I respect very much the opinion of the guy who told me this and it makes a lotta sense if you think about examples you may have seen.

Rupert Pupkin · #9 08-21-2006, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

All I know is that I would rather have Todd Pletcher in my corner on Saturday than anyone else. Apparently ole Tommy boy's meet isn't going so well. Guy has all that valuabel anbd expensive horseflesh in his barn and after 4 weeks he still sadly only has one win. I know you all couldnt wait to jump ugly on me after i ridiculed his job with Songster. Appears I know more as usual. one win in 4 weeks, geez thats just swell.

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

#10 08-21-2006, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

Rupert Pupkin · #11 08-21-2006, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. there will be all kinds of fluctautions. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

#12 08-21-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

Rupert Pupkin · #13 08-21-2006, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

No, I didn't. I guess that means he's 1 for 18. If it gets much worse than this, I would have to agree with you that he may be in a little slump.

#14 08-21-2006, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

GenuineRisk · #15 08-21-2006, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

Unfortunately, pgardn, I'm already married.

Scurlogue Champ · #16 08-21-2006, 10:39 PM

Remember when Corinthian ran by First Samurai down in Florida like he was standing still and everyone thought he was a machine?

Same ****, different time of the year.......

hockey2315 · #17 08-22-2006, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

Rupert Pupkin · #18 08-22-2006, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

The original argument wasn't about whether he is cold right now. Oracle's original argument was that the fact that Albertrani is not doing well at Saratoga proves that he's not a good trainer. My point was that his record for the year is more indicative of his abilty than his record for the month.

hockey2315 · #19 08-22-2006, 07:42 PM

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

Gander · #20 08-22-2006, 07:52 PM

I think what Mike was saying was that it isnt a bad time to take a shot against a very heavy favorite in Bernardini, who is trained by a guy who has only won 1 race this whole meet, a walkover which shouldnt even count as a win. Considering his opposition comes into this off a thrashing of a pretty good Haskell field trained by a guy who doesnt know what a slump is.
Thats all. In my opinion BGC will be overbet this weekend.