Breeders' Cup Fan Fantasy: The Sprint

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 09-25-2008, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Gulch beat a really good field in 89 including Precisionist, Afleet, Very Subtle, Olympic Prospect, Ruhlman and Mining. Call me crazy but i would take him any day of the week over Kona Gold. For him not be in the top 8 is stupid.

I agree that he should have been one of the 8 drafted.

As for the win - It was in the mud - the time was moderate with a 49 2/5 final half - and Gulch had been defeated in each of his last five.

Kona Gold simply has to rate as a better sprinter. Gulch was 18 out of it in the Derby and 16 out of it in the Belmont. I think he, Dancing Spree, and Precisionist were all horses who would have been much more likely to start in a BC Dirt Mile than a BC Sprint if such a race was around in their day.

blackthroatedwind · #2 09-25-2008, 11:37 AM

Gulch was a tremendous horse.

However, if Afleet had just a bad jockey, like say Barrington Harvey, instead of the guy who rode him, he would have won that BC Sprint and the Met Mile earlier in the year.

King Glorious · #3 09-25-2008, 11:45 AM

Maybe because I was biased towards Soviet Problem, I am giving Cherokee Run more credit than he deserves. However, when analyzing a single performance, I don't think what they had done in their previous few races has much meaning. Cherokee Run may have lost 6 of his last 7 going in and Gulch may have lost his last five going in and been well back in the Derby but that doesn't have anything to do with how he ran in the BC. And I think that in order to be completely fair about Gulch, you have to mention that in those last five loses were races in the Whitney (second to Personal Ensign), Iselin (third to Alysheba and Bet Twice), and Californian (second to Cutlass Reality). When he was sprinting, he was pretty damn good all year long, winning the Met Mile, Carter (1:20 2/5) and Portrero Grande (1:15) along with seconds in the Tom Fool and Vosburgh.

RolloTomasi · #4 09-25-2008, 11:49 AM

You guys went off on Honour And Glory yesterday. Visually, Lit De Justice ran like a monster at Woodbine.

Indian Charlie · #5 09-25-2008, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You guys went off on Honour And Glory yesterday. Visually, Lit De Justice ran like a monster at Woodbine.

I was going to say that as well.

In fact, hands down, when Lit de Justice ran his race, there are only a handful of sprinters ever that could beat him. He would beat any of these horses listed in this fantasy contest. If he hadn't been such a massive head case and been ridden by such an impatient and unthinking ******, he'd be remembered as one of the all time great sprinters ever.

If you can see some of his Santa Anita races, you'll see some of the most breathtaking moves a horse can make.

By the way, Royal Heroine would have smoked Da Hoss.

RolloTomasi · #6 09-25-2008, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I was going to say that as well.

In fact, hands down, when Lit de Justice ran his race, there are only a handful of sprinters ever that could beat him. He would beat any of these horses listed in this fantasy contest. If he hadn't been such a massive head case and been ridden by such an impatient and unthinking ******, he'd be remembered as one of the all time great sprinters ever.

If you can see some of his Santa Anita races, you'll see some of the most breathtaking moves a horse can make.

I was bummed when he was made part of the mutual field coming off something like a 13th place finish in the Vosburgh (an obvious throwout) in the '95 Sprint. Thought I'd get 30-1. Instead he only went off at 8-1.

Moot point, though. He ran 3rd to Desert Stormer, also part of the mutual field.

Actually, I guess I should be thankful he was part of the mutual field.

Guess who was last in the Sprint that year? Hint: It wasn't Royal Heroine...

Indian Charlie · #7 09-25-2008, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I was bummed when he was made part of the mutual field coming off something like a 13th place finish in the Vosburgh (an obvious throwout) in the '95 Sprint. Thought I'd get 30-1. Instead he only went off at 8-1.

Moot point, though. He ran 3rd to Desert Stormer, also part of the mutual field.

Actually, I guess I should be thankful he was part of the mutual field.

Guess who was last in the Sprint that year? Hint: It wasn't Royal Heroine...

Da Hoss? I seem to remember something like that, and thinking what was that horse in this race for.

RolloTomasi · #8 09-25-2008, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Da Hoss? I seem to remember something like that, and thinking what was that horse in this race for.

Yep. He had been running on turf, but either early at 3 or late as a 2yo, he ran 1:07 1/5 for 6f in a race at Turf Paradise. His first loss might have been the Gotham, prior to which he had been sprinting.

RolloTomasi · #9 09-25-2008, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You'd have to admit, that Da Hoss being in the sprint that year was pretty bad placemement. Didn't he win the Del Mar Derby earlier that year?

Yep. Next out he was 3rd to Labeeb in the Hollywood Derby (check out the Angels thread...wink).

Who knows, if the Mad Genius wasn't so stupid, maybe he would have won 3 BC Miles...

Indian Charlie · #10 09-25-2008, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm going to have to go look at some old forms, but I don't remember Lit De Justice running a whole lot. He was brilliant when right though. I can only speak for myself, but what i found so impressive about Honour and Glory was he danced every dance. Despite showing he wanted no part of 2 turns, he won the San Rafael (I think) and then was mistakenly put in the SA Derby and KY. A few weeks after that he ran an incredible race in the Met Mile. And from that point on ran his eyeballs out the rest of the year. He wasn't the best sprinter around, but he was damn good.

And I agree about Da Hoss. I was actually surprised to see how many votes he got. I thought the field he beat in '06 was a lot better thn the '08 field. But, it's kind of hard to take away what he did in '08. He was no world beater, but another damn good horse.

I think people are realizing that Honour and Glory was a much better racehorse, in hindsight, than he generally was recognized to be back when he raced. It's a shame he was trained by who he was.

Here is Lit De Justice in the El Conejo. Not his most impressive race, but worth seeing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0q0qp_hKjg

RolloTomasi · #11 09-25-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Here is Lit De Justice in the El Conejo. Not his most impressive race, but worth seeing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0q0qp_hKjg

Lakota Brave, one of the best, unheralded sprinters out west in the '90s. He was 5th in Lit De Justice's BC Sprint.

He was Headley's prototype for Kona Gold.

RolloTomasi · #12 09-25-2008, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Maybe because I was biased towards Soviet Problem, I am giving Cherokee Run more credit than he deserves. However, when analyzing a single performance, I don't think what they had done in their previous few races has much meaning. Cherokee Run may have lost 6 of his last 7 going in and Gulch may have lost his last five going in and been well back in the Derby but that doesn't have anything to do with how he ran in the BC.

Isn't all this completely contradictory to why you just knocked Artax and his BC win?

King Glorious · #13 09-25-2008, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Isn't all this completely contradictory to why you just knocked Artax and his BC win?

How do you figure? I said that Artax' win may have been the single best performance and that when he was on his game, he may have been the best sprinter of them all but that when it came to evaluating his overall record, having so many losses is hard for me to overlook. Evaluating his overall record has nothing to do with evaluating his BC race which was brilliant. Same with Gulch.

RolloTomasi · #14 09-25-2008, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How do you figure? I said that Artax' win may have been the single best performance and that when he was on his game, he may have been the best sprinter of them all but that when it came to evaluating his overall record, having so many losses is hard for me to overlook. Evaluating his overall record has nothing to do with evaluating his BC race which was brilliant. Same with Gulch.

My mistake. I coulda sworn you said that Cherokee Run's BC Sprint was the best performance and were overlooking all of his losses.

King Glorious · #15 09-25-2008, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

My mistake. I coulda sworn you said that Cherokee Run's BC Sprint was the best performance and were overlooking all of his losses.

No. I said that I thought his was the best performance in a Sprint win but never said he was the best sprinter overall. And I did return to admit that because of my bias towards Soviet Problem, I probably am overrating CR's win. I think that being as objective as I can, I'd probably say either Artax or Very Subtle had the single most impressive performance in the Sprint with Kona Gold right behind them.

The Indomitable DrugS · #16 09-25-2008, 11:55 AM

Cherokee Run was the post time favorite in the BC Sprint despite having lost six of his last seven - which can sometimes be telling about how the form of his opposition might have looked coming into the race.

Gulch was obviously losing in tough spots and running well...but if you want to knock Artax for losing - it's hard not to hold CR and Gulch to the same standard.

Gulch still won over a very fluky off track on a day when many Lukas horses were running big. Winning Colors - who was beaten 15 lengths in her prior start - almost upset Personal Ensign. Is It True upset the seemingly invincible Easy Goer. I believe Lukas also swept the Juve Fillies that year - and had a 2nd with Steinlan at 37/1 in the Mile.

RolloTomasi · #17 09-25-2008, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Cherokee Run was the post time favorite in the BC Sprint despite having lost six of his last seven - which can sometimes be telling about how the form of his opposition might have looked coming into the race.

The Sprint seems to favor off-the-pace types most years, and I think the public is wise to it (its not hard when there's 3 or 4 confirmed frontrunners lining up against each other), hence Cherokee Run being favored. I remember thinking he was gonna be a huge price that day.

Its funny, cuz the Mile is kind of quirky nowadays, tending to favor the bridesmaid-type horses that have been showing up, but not necessarily winning all year long (eg Kip Deville, Singletary, Artie Schiller, Domedriver, etc).

philcski · #18 09-25-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The Sprint seems to favor off-the-pace types most years, and I think the public is wise to it (its not hard when there's 3 or 4 confirmed frontrunners lining up against each other), hence Cherokee Run being favored. I remember thinking he was gonna be a huge price that day.

Its funny, cuz the Mile is kind of quirky nowadays, tending to favor the bridesmaid-type horses that have been showing up, but not necessarily winning all year long (eg Kip Deville, Singletary, Artie Schiller, Domedriver, etc).

BCS favorites over the last few years...

2007 Midnight Lute (closer)
2006 Henny Hughes (stalker)
2005 Lost in the Fog (frontrunner)
2004 Midas Eyes (closer)
2003 Aldebaran (closer)
2002 Orientate (stalker, but versatile)

You might be on to something there.

RolloTomasi · #19 09-25-2008, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

BCS favorites over the last few years...

2007 Midnight Lute (closer)
2006 Henny Hughes (stalker)
2005 Lost in the Fog (frontrunner)
2004 Midas Eyes (closer)
2003 Aldebaran (closer)
2002 Orientate (stalker, but versatile)

You might be on to something there.

Look at the top 3 finishers every year, too, to show how the race often sets up. You have a BC Classic winner (Black Tie Affair), a BC Classic runner up (Pleasant Tap), a BC Classic favorite (Dispersal), a Champagne winner (Grand Slam), a BC Juvenile winner (Gilded Time), and milers like Kela, Hesabull, Crafty CT, Honour And Glory, and Lion Tamer all hitting the board. That's not including actual winners like Cherokee Run (2nd in the Preakness), Dancing Spree (Suburban winner), Silver Train, Orientate, Gulch, Smile, and Precisionist all capable up to at least a mile, often further.

The Indomitable DrugS · #20 09-25-2008, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

BCS favorites over the last few years...

2007 Midnight Lute (closer)
2006 Henny Hughes (stalker)
2005 Lost in the Fog (frontrunner)
2004 Midas Eyes (closer)
2003 Aldebaran (closer)
2002 Orientate (stalker, but versatile)

You might be on to something there.

I don't think running styles factor in nearly as much in the betting as recent form, speed figures, and overall accomplishments do.