selling picks

Playa and all,
Tip sheets have never been worth the paper that they are printed on. Several reasons why. First of all in order to market these sheets you have to print them or get them online the day before the actual races that are being played, this is why they are no good. The day before the races you have no idea what track conditions will be, can't think of anything more important than that. Secondly, late scratches are an absolute necessity when putting forth proper analysis. Late scratches can affect pace scenarios, rendering your initial analysis futile. For example, you handicap a race and expect a three horse speed duel which will set it up for a closer, one of the three horses scratches, now you conclude that the duel might not be as hot, and that the two speeds will go around the track together.

The information that is worth paying for is clocker info an trip notes and bias notes. Many who are "weekend warriors" do not get to see wekday races or simply don't have the time or memory to keep track of biases and trips at a lot of tracks. How much is it worth to pull up information about how a track was playing on a given day? Dead rails, speed biased good rails, bad trips that don't get the comment lines in the DRF charts that they deserve, etc.
Lets take a horse like Joint Effort this past saturday, the knowledge that her last number was accomplished on a dead rail was enough to push some folks oveer the top and bet her big. WIthout that knowledge it may have been a coin toss in a lot of folks minds between her and Pletcher's horse.
Its the subtleties that aren't in the DRF that make a difference these days in playing. Most people don't have the time or put in the effort to keep such notes, and truly benefit from that type of data and information, not from selectiosn made on tip sheet 36 hours before the race.

[tap]

Great post oracle, and 100% accurate.

[tap]

When I am putting horses up on this board that I am going to play I am sweating bullets to get them posted in time. the reason for this is I am trying to squeeze every drop of info that I can. Waiting for the inevitable added scratch after scratches have been put up. Monitoring the weather to try and predict if a rogue thunderstorm is going to come through and drop a 1/2 of rain on the turf course at 2:30 in the afternoon etc. etc. And in spite of our best efforts, odds, circumstances, and fate will change as soon as the gate is sprung.

thats right tap, me too. In addition, just posting who you like doesnt exactly get you in the analysis hall of fame.
Its the info you provide and reasons that you like or dislike ceratin horses that is really valuable. It may trigger an "oh yeah!!! that rail was dead!!!" response in someone who was between two horses.
I'm not gonna be posting any more analysis or selections though. Has lead to too many arguments. Its just too hard to put that kind of effort into doing something and using info from trainers and clockers as well, to get nothing back but grief.

[Skip away]

I agree Moni, tip sheets are junk and worthless.

[tap]

Oracle, I certainly understand why you feel the way you do with regard to not posting selections and or analysis anymore, but I would say to you to also consider the positives when weighing your decision. Think about the satisfaction you have knowing you helped someone score on a horse, or watching your analysis of the race unfold just as you predicted. Think about the thank you posts that you get on this board or elsewhere from people who are genuinely appreciative.

On the subject of analysis it is a dual edged sword for me. For years we have had the writers and cappers (drf, Computer Cappers, tip sheets) who have specialized in the one line analogy, i.e. gets top jock today, trainer is deadly second off the claim, should have favorable pace scenario today, etc. All valid factors and legitimate analysis of a horse's attributes in a race. Then we have some cappers, (many on this board) who give thoughtful, extensive and extroadinary analysis that would be worthy of a book IMO. But what happens when you have that late scratch that changes the pace scenario? or the race comes off the grass late? Most people who do not follow racing will not understand these changing factors and if you try to explain to them what happened after the race it will appear to them as if you are making excuses.

As you pointed out in your earlier post how do you give worthy analysis of a race with out waiting long enough to consider any late developing factors? And if you wait long enough how do you get it posted in time? I admire the people that can, but for me it is a time constraint thing. I simply do not have enough time to give the analysis I would like and would not want to just come up with something half hearted so to speak. Anyway I hope you reconsider your decision not to put up selections or analysis as many here really enjoy them.

Originally Posted by tap

Oracle, I certainly understand why you feel the way you do with regard to not posting selections and or analysis anymore, but I would say to you to also consider the positives when weighing your decision. Think about the satisfaction you have knowing you helped someone score on a horse, or watching your analysis of the race unfold just as you predicted. Think about the thank you posts that you get on this board or elsewhere from people who are genuinely appreciative.

On the subject of analysis it is a dual edged sword for me. For years we have had the writers and cappers (drf, Computer Cappers, tip sheets) who have specialized in the one line analogy, i.e. gets top jock today, trainer is deadly second off the claim, should have favorable pace scenario today, etc. All valid factors and legitimate analysis of a horse's attributes in a race. Then we have some cappers, (many on this board) who give thoughtful, extensive and extroadinary analysis that would be worthy of a book IMO. But what happens when you have that late scratch that changes the pace scenario? or the race comes off the grass late? Most people who do not follow racing will not understand these changing factors and if you try to explain to them what happened after the race it will appear to them as if you are making excuses.

As you pointed out in your earlier thread how do you give worthy analysis of a race with out waiting long enough to consider any late developing factors? And if you wait long enough how do you get it posted in time? I admire the people that can, but for me it is a time constraint thing. I simply do not have enough time to give the analysis I would like and would not want to just come up with something half hearted so to speak. Anyway I hope you reconsider your decision not to put up selections or analysis as many here really enjoy them.

Perhaps on email I will create a list of receivers who wish to receive it.

[tap]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Perhaps on email I will create a list of receivers who wish to receive it.

There you go my man! Excellent idea.

[BillinCT]

Let me preface this by saying that we have never met. But as someone who is newer to the the game I have found your insight very useful and educational. For example I now transcribe my TG sheet numbers in red to the racing form as you have suggested to other posters. I am sure there are others like myself who are not as comfortable posting their picks, but use your analysis to check out a horse we may have overlooked or for tips to construct a pick 3 or 4 ticket. Just to let you know your opinions are apreciated. That is one of the reasons that I frequent this Board. Thanks

Originally Posted by BillinCT

Let me preface this by saying that we have never met. But as someone who is newer to the the game I have found your insight very useful and educational. For example I now transcribe my TG sheet numbers in red to the racing form as you have suggested to other posters. I am sure there are others like myself who are not as comfortable posting their picks, but use your analysis to check out a horse we may have overlooked or for tips to construct a pick 3 or 4 ticket. Just to let you know your opinions are apreciated. That is one of the reasons that I frequent this Board. Thanks

Thanks, and its hard for me to ever down a request from anyone for anything. I will create and email list. Its just that the agenting work overlaps with race analysis and watching races(obviously). WHen IM gonna analyze a days races(do ususally 4 tracks) teh prep workl and number transcribing alone is two hours or three. Thats not even including the analyzing of the races once that is done.Ad of course speaking with my friend teh clocker about the 1sters. Writing it up in an intelligent manner takes a while as well. I've tried to keep the suggested plays on pik-3's and pik-4s to a cheap enough amount that anyone casually playing could play them. I myself will spread out a race more than I post sometimes in realitym but I assume that not everyone wants to spend 200 bucks ona pik-4 ticket. If posting this stuff is going to cause any problems here, its just not worth it for anyone. I came up with the signature line below based on a few complaints froom the weekend. LOL!! It just seemd fitting.

[tap]

By the way this was a great subject for a thread.