Keeneland Sale

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by PSH

No real surprise that the top end of the yearling market remains strong....
Just a continuation of what we saw at Saratoga in August.
The fifteen or so buyers that dominate the high end market are obviously not affected by what is going on in the real world for the rest of us folk...

So, no real need to show up at the sale until Book 3 or Book 4 this coming weekend. Hopefully, and one would suspect, with 5500 yearlings to be auctioned that there will be bargains to be found at that point in the sale onward.

PSH

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

I actually think this sale is way off as compared to previous years. The number of RNA's is seemingly relatively low considering the prices are pretty soft. Several consignors told me that this was going to be way worse than they expected. I think tomorrows book may be a little stronger horses but there were not nearly as many buyers there as usual. It is a strong buyers market.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I actually think this sale is way off as compared to previous years. The number of RNA's is seemingly relatively low considering the prices are pretty soft. Several consignors told me that this was going to be way worse than they expected. I think tomorrows book may be a little stronger horses but there were not nearly as many buyers there as usual. It is a strong buyers market.

BTW, not sure if there were any that "slipped through the cracks" so to speak. There certainly doesn't seem to be as many buyers -- but that could also be a function of the sellers side of the market. As we know, at the Spa, there were buyers for horses under 100 -- there just weren't sellers.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

BTW, not sure if there were any that "slipped through the cracks" so to speak. There certainly doesn't seem to be as many buyers -- but that could also be a function of the sellers side of the market. As we know, at the Spa, there were buyers for horses under 100 -- there just weren't sellers.

Eric

Only fools like me hover around on the first day looking for horses in book 1 that are less than 100k and have both lungs still intact..

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Only fools like me hover around on the first day looking for horses in book 1 that are less than 100k and have both lungs still intact..

LOL. The slipped through the crack horse(s) might not be under a 100, LOL. Who knows? We can all talk about it next year at the Spa.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

LOL. The slipped through the crack horse(s) might not be under a 100, LOL. Who knows? We can all talk about it next year at the Spa.

Eric

If we all survive till then!!!

[Cannon Shell]

Foreign buyers purchased roughly 1/3rd of the ones sold by my unofficial count.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Only fools like me hover around on the first day looking for horses in book 1 that are less than 100k and have both lungs still intact..

Obviously, I was not there, but I did see one or two go very cheap. Not sure if they were bought but a couple were sub- $100k, including a Pulpit filly from a nice family. Of course, not have seen them or their records, I'm basing this just on the page.

Being not that familiar with auctions, I have a question. How does a horse that can draw no better than a $40k bid get into Book 1? It is something that came up after the examination process, the market rejecting the pedigree, the lack of expected success by a sire who has his first crop hitting the tracks this year ie. Smarty Jones?
Honestly, if I were selling, and my horse was "only" worth $50-60k, I'd rather have him in a later place in the sale so the "appropriate" buyers would be looking at him and bidding. Tossing him into book 1 makes him look bad by comparison.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Obviously, I was not there, but I did see one or two go very cheap. Not sure if they were bought but a couple were sub- $100k, including a Pulpit filly from a nice family. Of course, not have seen them or their records, I'm basing this just on the page.

Being not that familiar with auctions, I have a question. How does a horse that can draw no better than a $40k bid get into Book 1? It is something that came up after the examination process, the market rejecting the pedigree, the lack of expected success by a sire who has his first crop hitting the tracks this year ie. Smarty Jones?
Honestly, if I were selling, and my horse was "only" worth $50-60k, I'd rather have him in a later place in the sale so the "appropriate" buyers would be looking at him and bidding. Tossing him into book 1 makes him look bad by comparison.

The truth is that Book 1 is hard for Keeneland to fill. Many of the owners and consignors would rather sell a $250k horse in book 2 or 3 where there are simply more buyers and less competition. If you take a average $250k horse and match them up against a $2 million dollar horse it is easy to see how they get overshadowed. What happens is that consignors sometimes push 'sacrificial' horses into Book 1, a horse with a good enough pedigree but a physical issue that is going to be a hard sell regardless of where they are booked. In doing so they help keeneland and get move favorable positioning for other lots. I saw a filly by one of the hottest sires in the world today that is just awful. The consignor told me that the owner wanted to be in book 1 and requested it. He advised against but went along simply to get brownie points. She brought less than $50k. As a racehorse I wouldnt take her for free.

[Linny]

Thanks Chuck. I know enough about conformation to know the good ones from the bad ones, but not most of the fine points in between. Some of them must have a leg on backward.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

Everyone seemed to be concerned about the so called "bottom" and that the middle might weaken. If the top remains the same, the trickle down effect has to occur. The people in the 100 to 300 marketplace are the real buyers and that market has softened. At the Spa, you had real trouble selling horses under 100 -- strictly due to sellers expectations. That should change here.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Everyone seemed to be concerned about the so called "bottom" and that the middle might weaken. If the top remains the same, the trickle down effect has to occur. The people in the 100 to 300 marketplace are the real buyers and that market has softened. At the Spa, you had real trouble selling horses under 100 -- strictly due to sellers expectations. That should change here.

Eric

It would be a boon for buyers and the trickle down effect would be that breeders have less cash to spend on stud fees and cheaper mares which could lead to lesser mares being taken out of circulation and stud fees being reduced. Which would be a positive for everyone except stallion owners.