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#1
09-05-2008, 09:40 PM
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#2
09-05-2008, 09:49 PM
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__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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#3
09-05-2008, 11:29 PM
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PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.
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#4
09-05-2008, 11:34 PM
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not a chance in hell he carries VA.
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#5
09-05-2008, 11:53 PM
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http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close. Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 09-06-2008 at 12:08 AM.
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#6
09-06-2008, 12:05 AM
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__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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#7
09-06-2008, 07:21 AM
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Yeah....Mark Warner is killing Jim Gilmore in the polls here. Gilmore (Rep) was one of the more inept Gov's in the history of the Commonwealth. Warner (Dem) suprised me and turned out to be a great leader for Virginia during his term. All that is fine and dandy, but I still don't see Obama carrying Virginia. There is too big of a rural vote throughout the Commonwealth and many of those people are gonna have a VERY hard time punching that ticket on election day for a black man. It's the same thing when Doug Wilder (black man) was elected Gov of Virginia. Every poll from here to eternity had him with an insurmountable lead...it was a given he was gonna win. He only ended up winning by a few thousand votes. So what people tell pollsters and what ticket they end up punching when noone else is looking does not always jive. McCain picking Palin will carry him a long way in Virginia. A woman that hunts and that has a son and nephew getting ready to be deployed to Iraq...the men and women throughout the rural areas will identify with her and cling to her as someone that will look out for things that mean the most to them. They resist change a great deal and there is not alot for them to identify with when it comes to a Ivy League black man and a pompous know it all from the Northeast. Last edited by GPK : 09-06-2008 at 07:31 AM.
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#8
09-06-2008, 12:51 AM
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#9
09-06-2008, 01:07 AM
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with Palin as McCain's running mate, no way does he carry OH. Obama will carry downtown Cleveland, Columbus and maybe Cincy (unions and black vote)... no way does he carry any rural county. He'll lose the veteran (which Ohio has a ton of) and male vote by a wide margin and with a pro-life woman on the ticket, will lose the women vote too.
If they chose Hillary, Obama could have won it (the rural women would vote for Hillary over Obama... as they did in the primary or over McCain), but will now almost all vote for McCain since there's a pro-life woman on the ticket. They would have looked past the pro-life part for Hillary, but with them not taking her, the democrats will lose the state... probably by a wider margin than most will expect too. Grew up there and know the area and the way the people will vote. I will say one thing for Obama though... he's better off in Ohio by himself, because the type of person that Biden is... is exactly what they cannot stand.
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#10
09-06-2008, 01:14 AM
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if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?
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#11
09-06-2008, 12:58 AM
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you can keep posting that but poll after poll shows it's a toss up. i haven't seen anything the last 3 months that had either ahead by more than the margin of error. watch how many trips mccain and palin make to va the next 2 months and then tell me there's no chance.
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#15
09-06-2008, 08:03 AM
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#16
09-06-2008, 10:09 AM
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8/22 polling...hard to believe things have gotten worse for the RED team  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update
__________________
We've Gone Delirious
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#17
09-06-2008, 10:16 AM
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I will assume you did not predict Ike, due to age concerns. 1960- Kennedy (good job it was close) 1964 -Johnson (landslide, very easy) 1968 -Nixon (easy with wallace pulling from Humphrey) 1972 - Nixon (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded) 1976 - Carter (great job, very close) 1980 - Reagan (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded) 1984 - Reagan (ditto) 1988 - Bush (ditto) 1992 - Clinton (you had to get this one also) 1996 - Clinton (ditto) 2000- Bush (good job) 2004 - Bush (not as good as 2000 but good) So you are 3-1. Now you risk going 3-2 in elections that actually required some thought. Dont do it man. This could easily swing either way. Look back at the electoral map. Those states that are contested could swing either way in the next two months, very easily.
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#18
09-06-2008, 10:24 AM
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That would make you 2-1. Take it back.
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#19
09-06-2008, 10:45 AM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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