"In The Spotlight" with Dr. SwineSmeller

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Dilemma wins, 8/8/08 In The Spotlight]>.... Dilemma..... not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here...... purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling That's an automatic class edge.....genealogy.....at four years old has made 10 lifetime starts, ....

with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat...... http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

>>If one guy has ten $50,000 Keenland Sale horses and another guy has ten $400,000 Keenland Sale horses, and they match race all ten, I know which ten I'm betting.

Dr. SwineSmeller

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.

PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.

PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.

she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

the old mans advice was wrong about paper, it only offers you the facts. Its up to you to interpret the facts and decide who to bet on. what do you think you are doing by betting on horses because of the sales price? do you think you are alone doing that and its some magical way to find value?

she may win today, I doubt it, but whether she does or not is not influenced by how much someone was willing to pay for her two years ago.

[my miss storm cat]

Not getting involved in this but sorry for Masterful Miss who I think maybe had a little chat with Chocolate Lava before her race.....

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Not getting involved in this....

I can't tell you about what I'm not involved in either Miss storm Cat, For the 1st time in all my message board days, I have used the IGNORE command (two days ago), and I threw the key in the pig's trough.

Delvis reminds me of why I make my dogs stay outside.

Dr. swineSmeller

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

I can't tell you about what I'm not involved in either Miss storm Cat, For the 1st time in all my message board days, I have used the IGNORE command (two days ago), and I threw the key in the pig's trough.

Delvis reminds me of why I make my dogs stay outside.

Dr. swineSmeller

Posted before I saw this.....

I've never used the ignore feature, although I've been tempted at times.

[GPK]

Rare is the occasion when I am rendered speechless....but......

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Delvis reminds me of why I make my dogs stay outside.

Dr. swineSmeller

[TheSpyder]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[quote=my miss storm cat...Masterful Miss who I think maybe had a little chat with Chocolate Lava before her race.....[/QUOTE]

At least Masterful took off frontwards out of the gate, navigated the first turn, and crossed the finish line. That is tons better than I can say for my 2 ghost plays today!

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[quote=ArlJim78]she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

So far Jim, I've made my decision to make a play 3 of 9 times because of purchase price. And it is obvious when I am doing so.
Those three horses have went 1-0-1, for -.80 cents on three $2 win bets. I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.

[ArlJim78]

[quote=Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

So far Jim, I've made my decision to make a play 3 of 9 times because of purchase price. And it is obvious when I am doing so.
Those three horses have went 1-0-1, for -.80 cents on three $2 win bets. I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.

the final judgement is already in, its a dumb idea to ignore on-track performace in favor of the sales price comparison.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[quote=ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

the final judgement is already in, its a dumb idea to ignore on-track performace in favor of the sales price comparison.

Time will write the book Jim.

Best of luck at the windows.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

8/12/08 Coast To Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Deleware Park Race 5, post 2:33 Eastern time.

Jungle Cat is going to have to show me he can't race for me to believe it. Garnering no respect in his first out at 12/1 on the morning line doesn't deter my cat curiousity. I'm gambling on pedigree here. With calculator in hand, I have to begin to work my bank at this point to catch a value bet to get back in the game. Jungle Cat fits the value bill. Jungle Cat's two grandsires are Seattle Slew and Storm Cat. His sire, Forrest Cat, stands stud for a $35,000 fee at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky. But here is #6 Jungle Cat opening at a $25,000 claiming tag. It just doesn't fit.

Jockey J A Bracho gets only this one mount today. He's got one shot to put dinner on the table and his baby needs new shoes.

If Jungle Cat will get up for me today at 12/1, I'll be doing the jungle boogie with a plus side bankroll tonight. I'll play Jungle Cat for $26 WIN. Go Baby Go!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

[TheSpyder]

[quote=Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the old mans advice was wrong about paper, it only offers you the facts. Its up to you to interpret the facts and decide who to bet on.

And last but certainly not least...
I hope you learn this Jim. The old man that gave me that advice was a friend and fellow Arkansan, whom trained for W Cal Partee, and Pat Day won the Kentucky Derby on his trainee, Lil' E Tee. (I'll let you figure out his name Jim).

He gave me many more tidbits of advice that I'm willing to share (only a couple).

1st> He taught me that most horse track gamblers simply play picks, but they do not know how to track and play a bankroll. They key he said, is not how many winners you can pick, but rather how you manage your bank. He said racing is a game with an odds board, so to be successful, one must use the odds board in his favor (and chunk the paper), not simply pick winners, as any horse can win any given race. He never bought a Daily Racing Form, after his advice I never have either in the last 20 years. Cuz exactly like the wise old man said Jim, "Son, paper don't race".

2nd> And this, the most important piece of advice that old man gave me... He said, "Son, you have to know when to let the door slap you in the @ss to be a successful gambler".

Though I said that I have 25 more days to show a profit, I didn't say I'd play 25 more.

Therefore, as I have done for correctly for 20 years now, I'm taking that wise old man's advice once again, and I'm cashing in my profit and letting that perverbial door slap me in the @ss hard and heavy. You would better yourself too Jim if you'd listen to old folks when they try to teach you something.

I hope the last week has been as fun and profitable for all of you as it was for me. (This is my sweetest ever victory!, as I have never ran a thread that didn't show a worthwhile profit. Read the In The Spotlight thread's profit line posted above).

So, I hereby resign my thread, In The Spotlight with Dr. SwineSmeller, as a proven Winner!!! And all of those that have posed as racetrack know-it-all critic @ssholes for the last week can kiss my rosy red, exit-door spanked, WINNER @ss. See ya'!!

Dr. SwineSmeller, CASINO DRIVE--The world's finest and fastest thoroughbred!!,http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...a051008a_3.htm Go Baby Go!!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

And last but certainly not least...
I hope you learn this Jim. The old man that gave me that advice was a friend and fellow Arkansan, whom trained for W Cal Partee, and Pat Day won the Kentucky Derby on his trainee, Lil' E Tee. (I'll let you figure out his name Jim).

He gave me many more tidbits of advice that I'm willing to share (only a couple).

1st> He taught me that most horse track gamblers simply play picks, but they do not know how to track and play a bankroll. They key he said, is not how many winners you can pick, but rather how you manage your bank. He said racing is a game with an odds board, so to be successful, one must use the odds board in his favor (and chunk the paper), not simply pick winners, as any horse can win any given race. He never bought a Daily Racing Form, after his advice I never have either in the last 20 years. Cuz exactly like the wise old man said Jim, "Son, paper don't race".

2nd> And this, the most important piece of advice that old man gave me... He said, "Son, you have to know when to let the door slap you in the @ss to be a successful gambler".

Though I said that I have 25 more days to show a profit, I didn't say I'd play 25 more.

Therefore, as I have done for correctly for 20 years now, I'm taking that wise old man's advice once again, and I'm cashing in my profit and letting that perverbial door slap me in the @ss hard and heavy. You would better yourself too Jim if you'd listen to old folks when they try to teach you something.

I hope the last week has been as fun and profitable for all of you as it was for me. (This is my sweetest ever victory!, as I have never ran a thread that didn't show a worthwhile profit. Read the In The Spotlight thread's profit line posted above).

So, I hereby resign my thread, In The Spotlight with Dr. SwineSmeller, as a proven Winner!!! And all of those that have posed as racetrack know-it-all critic @ssholes for the last week can kiss my rosy red, exit-door spanked, WINNER @ss. See ya'!!

Dr. SwineSmeller, CASINO DRIVE--The world's finest and fastest thoroughbred!!,http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...a051008a_3.htm Go Baby Go!!

you're a clueless windbag who should stick to creative writing.

buh-bye.

[Stickhorse]

Wish you would have stuck around a bit longer. Hey we still have Del Mar running until about Labor Day.

I thought you were an interesting addition to the message board and never could understand all the people that were so anxious to throw stones. Well maybe I do understand since I've sadly seen this type of behavior before.

Certainly understand you wanting to leave but please stop by again in the future.

[otisotisotis]

amazing how he finally gets over and then takes off.....hit and run pusse..

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

So, I hereby resign my thread, In The Spotlight with Dr. SwineSmeller, as a proven Winner!!! And all of those that have posed as racetrack know-it-all critic @ssholes for the last week can kiss my rosy red, exit-door spanked, WINNER @ss. See ya'!!

Dr. SwineSmeller, CASINO DRIVE--The world's finest and fastest thoroughbred!!,http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...a051008a_3.htm Go Baby Go!!

A perfect time for an exit; two even money chalk plays, one reckless 8-1 play, and a no brainer yesterday... The sad part about the whole experiment is that if you weren't the painfully ignorant attention whore that you profess to be, you're measly 23% could easily have been triple digits... Oh well, glad to see you go, don't rush back anytime soon - And in the immortal words of Coach Pants: Eat a bowl of dicks, Fucl<bag.