Pletcher explains Flower Alley's last race

#1 08-16-2006, 05:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Flower Alley has done much more to impress me than Invasor. Invasor beat a totally empty field in the Pimlico Special where nobody fired. In his next race, he beat a terrible field. Then in his last race he beat Sun King by a nose.

Flower Alley was pretty much on par and was probably slightly better than Roman Ruler last year. Sun King was not nearly as good as either of those horses last year. You could argue that Sun King has improved this year but I honestly don't think he has. I haven't been overly impressed with any of his races this year. I actually think he was better last year.

Flower Alley's coming within a length of Saint Liam showed what level he is on. SL ran Ghostzapper to a photo finish. FA is a very good horse on his best day. I think that Invasor is ridiculously overrated. I think that FA would easily handle him on his best day.

Its hysterical here that many of the same "experts" on this board who love Invasor have bashed Sun King repeatedly. How exactly does that work? Lets see if I get this right, one horse is king of the world and the other is a nothing rat. Yet the king of the world is the king of the world because he beats the "rat" by a nose? Wow!!
I actually like both horses, and like FA but don't know what to make of his last race either.

AeWingnut · #2 08-16-2006, 06:04 AM

I think Flower Alley is big and FAT
Pletcher has to look at the sheets ? Didn't he watch the race?

I thought they were trying to pull a Tiznow.

run two preps and fire in the BC Classic

#3 08-16-2006, 10:45 AM

Not buying the optimism...I think this horse is done....hate to be synical, but you can't look at that race ad think of it as a positive race for a horse of his stature....he folded like a cheap suit ad he was supposed to be the incumbant handicap division leader.....if he didn't have a better excuse than that like something that physically went wrong, then I would say that the horse is not close to the same animal as a year ago...

Dunbar · #4 08-16-2006, 06:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Flower Alley has done much more to impress me than Invasor. Invasor beat a totally empty field in the Pimlico Special where nobody fired. In his next race, he beat a terrible field. Then in his last race he beat Sun King by a nose.

Flower Alley was pretty much on par and was probably slightly better than Roman Ruler last year. Sun King was not nearly as good as either of those horses last year. You could argue that Sun King has improved this year but I honestly don't think he has. I haven't been overly impressed with any of his races this year. I actually think he was better last year.

Flower Alley's coming within a length of Saint Liam showed what level he is on. SL ran Ghostzapper to a photo finish. FA is a very good horse on his best day. I think that Invasor is ridiculously overrated. I think that FA would easily handle him on his best day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its hysterical here that many of the same "experts" on this board who love Invasor have bashed Sun King repeatedly. How exactly does that work? Lets see if I get this right, one horse is king of the world and the other is a nothing rat. Yet the king of the world is the king of the world because he beats the "rat" by a nose? Wow!!
I actually like both horses, and like FA but don't know what to make of his last race either.

Sheesh, Rupert, Invasor is "ridiculously overrated"? Compared to WHOM? The horse has lost 1 race, right? In Dubai to Discreet Cat. He comes here and reels off 3 straight wins, 2 of them in races with hallowed names in American racing. He has 2 of the top 15 BSF's run in route races this year. He's not winning these races by default.

Using Sun King as a measure of how good Invasor is is like using Sharp Humor to measure Barbaro. I'm sure there are horses that did (and will) beat Sharp Humor by more than the 1/2-length that Barbaro beat him in the Florida Derby. Are those horses on a level with Barbaro because they handled Sharp Humor more easily?

oracle, I think there are legitimate reasons to like Invasor a lot more than Sun King. Sun King has run some nice races, but he has thrown in numerous clunkers, too. Consistency counts for a lot.

--Dunbar

Rupert Pupkin · #5 08-16-2006, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, Rupert, Invasor is "ridiculously overrated"? Compared to WHOM? The horse has lost 1 race, right? In Dubai to Discreet Cat. He comes here and reels off 3 straight wins, 2 of them in races with hallowed names in American racing. He has 2 of the top 15 BSF's run in route races this year. He's not winning these races by default.

Using Sun King as a measure of how good Invasor is is like using Sharp Humor to measure Barbaro. I'm sure there are horses that did (and will) beat Sharp Humor by more than the 1/2-length that Barbaro beat him in the Florida Derby. Are those horses on a level with Barbaro because they handled Sharp Humor more easily?

oracle, I think there are legitimate reasons to like Invasor a lot more than Sun King. Sun King has run some nice races, but he has thrown in numerous clunkers, too. Consistency counts for a lot.

--Dunbar

I'm just giving my opinion. I have no stake in this. I have no connection to Invasor or FA. Invasor is obviously a good horse. He's one of the top few best horses on the East coast right now. But some years the horses are stronger than other years. On the East coast this year, I don't think the older horses compare to the older horses on the East coast in 2004 or 2005.

By the way, I think that Discreet Cat beat Invasor by about 7 lengths or something like that.

With regards to the Barbaro/Sharp Humor comparison, I think that Barbaro ran about 5-6 lengths better in the Derby than in his win over Sharp Humor. I think Invasor ran his race against SK.

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

Gander · #6 08-16-2006, 01:51 PM

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

I agree with all this. I think Sun King should have been able to get by Invasor yet he didnt. Neither strike me as a major player in the Classic, especially if Bernardini runs in it.

Dunbar · #7 08-16-2006, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

On a horse's "best day", a lot of things can happen. Some horses do not need their best day to run at the very top level. Invasor has answered each call so far. So has Bernardini, for that matter. FA has thrown in clunkers that have to be explained with whatever excuse seems most logical. Same thing with Buzzard's Bay. I would take Invasor against FA or Buzzard's Bay in a matchup at +100 if given the chance. For that matter, I'm not sure we've seen Invasor's best day yet.

If you will be "extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic", then who do you think is a more likely winner? I can only think of Bernardini and Lava Man. If you think any other horse is more likely, then we can make a "friendly" bet on the race. It can either be a matchup (whichever horse finishes in front of the other) or we could say that one of the horses must win. You pick a horse other than LM or Bernardini, and I'll accept it. (um...before the Pacific Classic, of course.) Maybe leave out David Junior, too--I'm thinking US-based horses ;>)

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #8 08-16-2006, 03:11 PM

Rupert, I do agree that this year's group of older horses appears to be weaker than the past couple of years. I'm not touting Invasor as an heir to GZ or Saint Liam or RIM. But I think he is very near the top of what we've seen this year.

--Dunbar

Danzig · #9 08-16-2006, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm just giving my opinion. I have no stake in this. I have no connection to Invasor or FA. Invasor is obviously a good horse. He's one of the top few best horses on the East coast right now. But some years the horses are stronger than other years. On the East coast this year, I don't think the older horses compare to the older horses on the East coast in 2004 or 2005.

By the way, I think that Discreet Cat beat Invasor by about 7 lengths or something like that.

With regards to the Barbaro/Sharp Humor comparison, I think that Barbaro ran about 5-6 lengths better in the Derby than in his win over Sharp Humor. I think Invasor ran his race against SK.

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

hard to say what he'd do at his best, when was the last time we've seen it? or here's a scary thought, what if his bad day the other day is now his best?

as for invasor losing to discreet cat, he never lost before, and he hasn't lost since--yet he's getting a whole lot of grief for that one time when he shipped in and sputtered. and now he's here, giving lie to the dreaded dubai jinx, and cleaning house.

hey, i have to say i hope they figure out what's wrong with flower alley. nothing i enjoy than watching good horses go toe to toe. but i'm leery about the continued high praise for a horse that has won once in a years time.

Gander · #10 08-16-2006, 08:13 AM

People who criticize Lava Man for not winning out of his home state absolutely crack me up. Actually criticizing a horse thats one multiple grade ones this year on 2 different surfaces. Flower Alley rests all winter and cant even be competitive in a race on his bread and butter track. Granted, Invasor is a nice horse and Sun King has really improved, but not even to hit the board in a race you have been targeting for months and months? Wow.

GPK · #11 08-16-2006, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

People who criticize Lava Man for not winning out of his home state absolutely crack me up. Actually criticizing a horse thats one multiple grade ones this year on 2 different surfaces. Flower Alley rests all winter and cant even be competitive in a race on his bread and butter track. Granted, Invasor is a nice horse and Sun King has really improved, but not even to hit the board in a race you have been targeting for months and months? Wow.

Same thing with Surf Cat, Tim. I don't give a rats ass if he has all his wins in Cali. as long as he keeps racking up the wins and the $$$

Gander · #12 08-16-2006, 08:23 AM

Big difference Kev. You know I love Surf Cat and his talent. But he needs to get on the racetrack, any racetrack and win a significant race. To date, I dont think hes won more than one significant race. Hope to see that soon.
As for Lava Man, another weekend, another old warrior to root for. Sunday he is expected to add another grade 1 to his resume and I believe he will do it in dramatic fashion. Its one thing for Giacomo to get past Preachinatthebar, but quite another for him to go by (up to this point) the horse of the year.

GPK · #13 08-16-2006, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Big difference Kev. You know I love Surf Cat and his talent. But he needs to get on the racetrack, any racetrack and win a significant race. To date, I dont think hes won more than one significant race. Hope to see that soon.
As for Lava Man, another weekend, another old warrior to root for. Sunday he is expected to add another grade 1 to his resume and I believe he will do it in dramatic fashion. Its one thing for Giacomo to get past Preachinatthebar, but quite another for him to go by (up to this point) the horse of the year.

Im sorry he is out too....I think SC would give Lava Man everything he wanted and then some.

Gander · #14 08-16-2006, 08:48 AM

Kev- Did you see my PM to you? WHat do you think his odds will be?

GPK · #15 08-16-2006, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Kev- Did you see my PM to you? WHat do you think his odds will be?

the one from yesterday about SJ? Let me look it over..

GPK · #16 08-16-2006, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Kev- Did you see my PM to you? WHat do you think his odds will be?

Tim...there isn't a horse in that race that would scare me. I like to see that Bejerano sticks with him, but the outside posts is the only thing that concerns me. He looks to me to have enough early speed to clear them all and he may just do that and not look back. 4-1 ML....I think you will be lucky to get 2-1 on him. I just don't see much else in the race putting pressure on him early.

IMO...A non-wagering race unless you get 4-1 and that just will not happen.

GPK · #17 08-16-2006, 08:49 AM

SC aint doing bad...he has won:

Mervyn Leroy
Potrero Grande
San Carlos
Swaps

I know it ain't much, but he can only go where Headley sends him. I hate that he is hurt, I think he could have had a very big summer/fall this year starting with a win in the Pac Classic. I know you like him alot too. I just love to watch that burst of speed when he turns it on.

Scurlogue Champ · #18 08-16-2006, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Im sorry he is out too....I think SC would give Lava Man everything he wanted and then some.

Didn't Surf Cat run in the 2005 Big 'Cap?

GPK · #19 08-16-2006, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moodwalker

Didn't Surf Cat run in the 2005 Big 'Cap?

He did Mood...as a 3yo...big mistaked IMO on Headleys part, but I guess he didn't want to ship him east. I pressed the pace for the great majority of the race last year.

I think he is TONS better as a 4YO this year and would give them all they wanted.

LARHAGE · #20 08-16-2006, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

People who criticize Lava Man for not winning out of his home state absolutely crack me up. Actually criticizing a horse thats one multiple grade ones this year on 2 different surfaces. Flower Alley rests all winter and cant even be competitive in a race on his bread and butter track. Granted, Invasor is a nice horse and Sun King has really improved, but not even to hit the board in a race you have been targeting for months and months? Wow.

I'm with you, because even if Lava Man doesn't win, he literally runs his heart out trying, like last years Pacific Classic, that race more than any of his others showed me how much heart and class Lava Man has, he got a ridiculously bad ride running into an insane pace and he still desperately tried to the effect of his own health, he was literally exhausted and almost collapsed, give me that horse over Flower Alley any day of the week.