Saratoga Baby Race Analysis

[hockey2315]

7/23/08 - Race 2

1/1A - Mott/Zayat entry - #1 Pious David is by a below average sire for firsters and out of the dam that produced Monba. He has a superior tomlinson rating for the distance (406) and should be ready to fire first out. Very possible but underlaid.

#1A Zensational is by a top FTS sire in Unbridled's Song (25% $2.22) and has an ok female side. The works have been steady enough, but none have been beyond 4F. Like his entrymate (only one will go), he's possible but won't offer any value.

#2 Cognito - Asmussen trainee is one of only two horses in the field to have already raced. He ran 2nd at Churchill with a pretty easy trip against weaker (most likely). Sure, he got bumped, but he saved a ton of ground on the rail. No thanks at 2-1.

#3 Prince Teton - I believe this is the first starter for Teton Forest - sold for $200K, well over sire's $5K stud fee. The dam is 1/2 to a $550K earner. Romans has done very well at the spa with first timers - 20% with a $3.02 ROI. Contender at a price but I like a few others more.

#4 Flying Private - A lot of hype on here before his debut but he was a little cold on the board. Looked poised to win at the top of the stretch before fading badly and being bumped. Looked awful after that and I'm a little surprised he's coming back already. Playing against.

#5 Gone Astray - Shug - Next. . .

#6 Forest Lord - here's an interesting one from Ronny Werner. Not much of a pedigree, but it's sufficient. Some may remember Werner sending out Secret Gypsy to a 13-1 record breaking debut last summer here, and I have a feeling that this one is live too. Werner is 1/2 with FTS ($14.60 ROI), 2/3 in MSWs ($13.46 ROI), and 2/4 in sprints ($6.35) at the spa. Sharp bullet work here on the 19th and a few slower stamina building 5F drills before that. Will be overlooked and offer significant value.

#7 Brave Victory - Possibly the most likely winner. Zito's new found ability to win first out is well documented and this horse is very well bred to win early. By Lion Heart (35% with FTS - $6.86 ROI) out of a black type producing mare. Some fast works on display 3F 1/39 on June 10th and 4F 4/42 on a good track on June 25th. No 5F works but I trust Zito to have this one fit enough. Zito/LaPenta scored with War Pass opening weekend last year at about 7-1. One slight drawback - Zito and Prado have a record of 0/9 together, but I'm not too worried about that. Very likely but I doubt you get a huge price.

#8 In Speight of It - Possible bomb. Speightstown is 2/7 with his firsters so far for an unspectacular $1.86 ROI. The dam is a full sister to precocious sprinter Yes It's True. Timothy Ritvo isn't great in the relevant trainer categories but he's not completely incapable of winning with a firster. The work-tab on this one is interesting - a ton of works could probably mean two things: Either this horse has fitness or behavioral problems (3 gate works), etc. . . or Ritvo wants to make sure he's ready to win first time out. I'd watch the board on this one - if he takes any money (it may not be that obvious - 12-1 would be taking money for this horse/trainer in this race) use him, if not it's probably safe to toss him.

Most Likely: #7 Brave Victory
Most Value: #6 Forest Lord

Add-ins: #1/1A, #3, and #9*

The Play - Forest Lord to win and boxed with the 7. May use the others in some capacity depending on tote action and probables. Also will use the 7 and 6 in the early pick 4 along with the 9* and possibly the 3. Race 3 looks pretty straightforward, I can't help but think Pegasian is the most likely winner in the 4th, and I like the 2 in the 5th but will probably throw in a few of the firsters (don't like the 1).

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't agree with you about Cognito's trip and think that is specifically the kind of trip, especially given how well the horse ran under the circumstances, that could really improve a horse for its next start.

That being said, I can understand taking the Werner horse, and won't be surprised if a live firster wins.....but I still think Cognito is OK and the horse to beat.

[hockey2315]

Glad to hear your thoughts. . .

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

#5 Gone Astray - Shug - Next. . .

You are probably right, but that sure is a tough pedigree to toss in a race full of firsters. The sire was a very good 2yo runner and a very good sire of 2yos, and the dam is about as well-bred as a horse could possibly be.
It is a tough race.

[sumitas]

Cognito (Langfuhr) is 1/2 to Cool Coal Man. He is crossed to the "pedigree worm" Northern Dancer.

[NTamm1215]

Prince Teton is not Teton Forest's first starter, but his fourth. Smokey Lonesome is a two-time starter for him and is already a winner.

Is Aldebaran's rating of 'A' with firsters by the TSN Sire Stats incorrect?

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Prince Teton is not Teton Forest's first starter, but his fourth. Smokey Lonesome is a two-time starter for him and is already a winner.

Is Aldebaran's rating of 'A' with firsters by the TSN Sire Stats incorrect?

NT

Aldebaran is 2/23 (9%) with a $1.17 ROI this year with firsters according to the DRF stats. He was better last year (18%, $1.81). . . I wouldn't call that an "A."

For some reason Teton Forest isn't listed in '07 or '08 as having any firsters. . .

[VOL JACK]

I think the money will get spread around in here quite a bit and Cognito will offer value at 3-1.
I really like Proud Jefe that he ran second to in his debut.

However, good analysis.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Aldebaran is 2/23 (9%) with a $1.17 ROI this year with firsters according to the DRF stats. He was better last year (18%, $1.81). . . I wouldn't call that an "A."

For some reason Teton Forest isn't listed in '07 or '08 as having any firsters. . .

Aldebaran and Sky Mesa have been tremendous busts as sires.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Prince Teton is not Teton Forest's first starter, but his fourth. Smokey Lonesome is a two-time starter for him and is already a winner.

Pedigreequery (not the most accurate site in the world) - only has a race record for Smokey Lonesome.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Pedigreequery (not the most accurate site in the world) - only has a race record for Smokey Lonesome.

Smokey Lonesome ran twice at Hollywood, finishing fourth then first.

Oceanage ran once at Churchill. The Thoroughbred Times Interactive Stallion Directory is very good in this respect.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Brave Victory was a pretty expensive yearling at $200K, and a very expensive buy-back at $490K by Lapenta this spring. Showed speed in early bullet 3F work and ordinary work tab since is reminiscent of that shown by War Pass. I also expect him to come out running.

The horse to beat looks like Cognito, although for the Keeneland 2YO sale-topper, he was slightly chilly in small-field debut in which he didn't show much early lick, also breaking from rail. Tough post but half to Cool Coal Man figures to improve with the experience.

Prince Teton was the most expensive yearling ($130K) from his sire last year, and McKathans made a modest profit with him as a $200K pinhook. Good works for Romans with nice post draw. Given connections, I would not be surprised if money showed.

The big question mark is what to make of Zensational. At $20K, this was the least expensive of 63 Unbridled's Songs to go through the ring last year, and then somehow turns into a $700K 2YO. Modest Oklahoma works for connections that ruled baby racing here last summer.

[gales0678]

Prince Teton will only offer valie in picks / dd , he will most likely be overbet to win

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You are probably right, but that sure is a tough pedigree to toss in a race full of firsters. The sire was a very good 2yo runner and a very good sire of 2yos, and the dam is about as well-bred as a horse could possibly be.
It is a tough race.

I'm a sucker for Dixie Union.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The big question mark is what to make of Zensational. At $20K, this was the least expensive of 63 Unbridled's Songs to go through the ring last year, and then somehow turns into a $700K 2YO. Modest Oklahoma works for connections that ruled baby racing here last summer.

I actually like the other entry better.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I actually like the other entry better.

I agree that, if they scratch Zensational, then Pious David is probably an inclusion (although I have not been impressed with the Aldebarans and this horse looks like he wants to go longer).

Opening day maiden for juveniles always an exciting event. With only two with experience cappers must use workouts to evaluate potential talent and levels of fitness.

FOREST LORD certainly looks like a runner. After a quarter mile in Lexington chestnut son of Forest Camp moved up to a half mile three weeks later. Ronny got him and immediately put him in company out of the gate, then five panels before shipping north. Werner a terrific debut conditioner worked this one in company with undefeated stablemate and graded winner Run Away and Hide and "Lord" could not go with that one but came back with solid co-bullet Saturday, working much faster than useful sophomore stablemate The Darp.

From a breeding standpoint "Lord" is a stand out with two year old champions littering his immediate pedigree. Deputy Minister, Smart Angle, Seattle Slew and Rockhill Native are all in the first two generations with the latter three on the dams side. JR gets the call for Mr. Preston and not much to beat at least on paper.

Cognito had a solid debut and should go favored, although the money often shows, and scores in this type of heat. Nevertheless the rail no bargain especially this heavily cambered oval when the float is used yet this well bred gray from top dirt barn in the country may complete the perfecta. BBB

[ateamstupid]

I hear the 3 is a good one..

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hear the 3 is a good one..

I've heard that about half the field. . .

I like Prince Teton