Fasig-Tipton July sale

[Cannon Shell]

There are plenty of people to buy those $40000 horses but not many sellers willing to let them go for that. I will never understand the logic that it is somehow the buyers fault that the sellers arent realistic with prices.

[sumitas]

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The sellers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

[Cannon Shell]

If your horse doesnt bring 20k in this sale you either have a physical issue or really bad judgement on what your horse is worth.

[Bobby Fischer]

hey do the higher# hips from the catalogue go at a later date? or what i am i missing?

-Edit Cool

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

hey do the higher# hips from the catalogue go at a later date? or what i am i missing?

tomorrow

[sumitas]

The lowest priced hip to sell was #30 $15,000.
http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/30.pdf
Next was hip # 189 at $17k. These were the only 2 to sell for less than $20k.
http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/189.pdf

And Cannon Shell's monster #130 sold for $90k.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The buyers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

Dead on. Like I said, when I go to the 2yo sales and I see horse after horse selling for $20k to $50k (from $10k and $20k stallions), it just makes you sit back and wonder. Haven't the sellers learned anything yet? Just look at what it takes to get a horse from yearling to the starting gate, or from yearling to the 2yo sale.

Eric

[sumitas]

Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/14/08 142 13,311,000 93,739 112 75,000

7/15/08 163 14,840,000 91,043 81 75,000

Totals 305 28,151,000 92,298 193 75,000



Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/16/07 178 15,826,000 88,910 89 75,000

7/17/07 176 20,615,000 117,131 78 90,000

Totals 354 36,441,000 102,941 167 80,000
2nd session numbers:
8 head RNA less than $20k.
33 RNA $20 - $50k.
32 RNA $51k - $100k.
8 RNA over $100k including hip #509 RNA $325k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/509.pdf

The 2nd session RNAs were about evenly split at $50k. The first session saw 2/3 of RNAs under $50k. So the 2nd session saw higher priced RNAs.

NYbreds today: #469 More Than Ready/Bronze Autumn-Mr Greeley filly OUT, #546 Dixie Union-Kings Fancy colt $150k, #555 Grand Slam/Lemon Tart colt $123k.

Lowest priced hip #319 filly sold for $11k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/319.pdf

[Bobby Fischer]

another question:
how do we track these guys later on with reference to their hip# or pedigree?

THANKS= witchdoctor sumitas

[sumitas]

I believe brisnet.com has produce records by mare, etc. for a price.

[witchdoctor]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

another question:
how do we track these guys later on with reference to their hip# or pedigree?

You can go to Breederscup.com and put in the dam's name and the year of birth to get the name of the horse. Then just follow them on DRF or BRIS stablemail.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The sellers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???

[ELA]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???

The million dollar question! Or in this case the $10,000 question? LOL.

Whenever I try and buy a horse that went RNA -- the mystery is always "where was the last live bid"

I had one in the Keeneland sale and I am telling you, there was one live bid other than my own from $45k all the way to $65k. I was very thankful there was at least one buyer there. Of course it can be a totally different story when there is no live bid. A seller, consignor, anyone can bid it up themselves to create the after-sale market.

Bottom line -- I think below $100k, this market will take a major hit.

Eric

[sumitas]

How many of the horses sold at this sale will actually race for the current new owner ? I have no idea but I get the feeling only a few will.

Anywho, on to the Spa for the next round of yearling sales.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by sumitas

How many of the horses sold at this sale will actually race for the current new owner ? I have no idea but I get the feeling only a few will.

Anywho, on to the Spa for the next round of yearling sales.

Great question. I think the one area of the marketplace, as it relates to "buyers", that won't get as hurt will be the pinhookers. They are somewhat in a position of they "have to buy" -- at least something -- it just becomes a question of what, where, how much, etc. If the pinhookers back off, they are pretty much putting themselves in a position of not being able to do business. Their wallets might be affected, they might not spend as much or buy as many, but they will still buy or else they can't conduct business.

Like you said, on to the Spa, and then Keeneland for about a zillion horses being sold.

Eric

[Linny]

A quick logistical question re: seeling at F-T July.
When does the seller have to commit to a "reserve" price? Is it at nomination or far later in the process?

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Linny

A quick logistical question re: seeling at F-T July.
When does the seller have to commit to a "reserve" price? Is it at nomination or far later in the process?

Far later. The seller can set an RNA up to very late (as long as the RNA price gets to the auction stand). However, it doesn't matter -- the seller can bid or "protect" the horse to any price he/she wants.

Eric

[Linny]

Thanks Eric. I was wondering if a baby nominated early in the year might have had a reserve set at that time and as the economy has gotten worse, the reserve might seem high, but that appears not to be the case.

As I often see in the hunter/jumper world, it looks like many sellers are basing reserves on "what they have into the horse" than a reasonable reflection of the market as it stands TODAY.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There are plenty of people to buy those $40000 horses but not many sellers willing to let them go for that. I will never understand the logic that it is somehow the buyers fault that the sellers arent realistic with prices.

That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by ELA

That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric

Markets by definition are NOT efficent hence opportunity for the seller and or the buyer