I Hope....

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Sudan ran an outstanding race today. First, he had to tote John Velazquez around which is a feat unto itself. He at least had some run left in the lane after the suicide pace duel.

If Frankel thought he was leaving himself a better chance to win the UN by leaving Champs Elysees in then he was dead wrong in retrospect.

NT

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

There's no way you can overrate how taxing that pace was going 11 furlongs and Sudan was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths. He finished clear of GI winner (albeit with an asterisk) Grand Couturier, True Cause and Mission Approved is still trying to finish the race.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

He ran a good race despite the knuclehead jockey. He is a horse to watch next out.

Actually, I think this may have been more the horse than the rider after the first quarter. If you watched the head-on replay as the field went down the backside, while Mission Approved was down on the rail, Sudan had to be out in the four or five path, so it's not like these two horses were battling head-to-head. It looked like Velazquez was trying to get his horse off Mission Approved but was unable to get the horse to relax.

I do agree with Sudan ran a big race, under the circumstances.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, I think this may have been more the horse than the rider after the first quarter. If you watched the head-on replay as the field went down the backside, while Mission Approved was down on the rail, Sudan had to be out in the four or five path, so it's not like these two horses were battling head-to-head. It looked like Velazquez was trying to get his horse off Mission Approved but was unable to get the horse to relax.

I do agree with Sudan ran a big race, under the circumstances.

Johnny V just loves that wide trip. Whether it works or not is neither here nor there for him. He just keeps blowing race after race as a result. By I digress.

When dueling with a horse it's usually a good idea to stay relatively abreast to it, as then you can at least establish a steady tempo. (I don't know where the notion that being outside a horse, except in the stretch run, gives you an advantage came from -- it certainly doesn't work on turf in general and is not working these days at BEL) While Mission Approved was OFF the rail, significantly, Johnny was WAY to his outside. As a result, the horse is never able to establish any kind of rhythm in terms of stride, running with it's head to the right (on correct lead) and then switching to lefty lead for a good portion of the backstretch (which had him going all the more to the right). This is absolutely TERRIBLE FOOTWORK. (Blame both the trainer and jock for this.) When added to the poor trip in terms of pace, you get a sense of how well this horse ran. Johnny's ride was ALMOST as bad as the ride by Gomez on Colonel John. In each case, you wonder where they find the nuts to face the connections after.

[Danzig]

the real question remains whether curlin should go to the arc or not. yesterdays race in no way shows what curlin could do on soft turf, which is what he'll be running on should he go to france. if they really want to know if the arc is doable, they need to take him there NOW, and run him over that course in his next start. is it possible he's a horse that wants more cut in the ground? is that why he finished second to red rocks? or is it just a matter of him not being a turfer at all? no way of knowing what type ground he wants until he leaves a firm course for a softer one, which is what they need to try him on.

i still think he'll get his butt handed to him if he goes overseas--but running in the states vs laughable turf runners gives us a poor measuring stick for his ability to handle the worlds best on turf.

we all give darley a hard time every year when they try to take the home route to the kentucky derby, saying early and often that any derby hopes they have should come here to prep. this is a similar scenario...altho i think curlin will come back empty handed if he goes over.

but he needs to try soft turf, and also tackle running clockwise.
i really think in a few days they announce they aren't going to try at all.

as for the point that they've made that tiznow won twice in the bcc, and they want to do something 'different'--remember that curlin, should he attempt a second bcc and win, would be the first to win it on two different surfaces.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

Yeah, its overrated when a horse goes 22 and three quarters in the opening quarter of a 11f race. Yeah, overated. LOL

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yeah, its overrated when a horse goes 22 and three quarters in the opening quarter of a 11f race. Yeah, overated. LOL

You don't understand what I'm saying - should I go search for all your posts and respond to them? That'll be fun.

[dalakhani]

[quote=hockey2315]I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.[/QUOTE]

No, I dont understand this. The genius of it is beyond us all.

[hockey2315]

The point is that now every idiot who thinks they're a trip handicapper will move this horse way up next time off of that speed duel when in all actuality he had no chance of winning yesterday no matter what trip. He was beaten by the horses who should've beaten him and finished ahead of two bad horses with a 20 length head start on them and the horse he dueled with who reacted worse than he did. If they ran the race again, he'd be 8-1 or so this time - and he'd still have little chance of winning even if both his jock and Mission Approved's jock consciously tried to avoid another speed duel.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The point is that now every idiot who thinks they're a trip handicapper will move this horse way up next time off of that speed duel when in all actuality he had no chance of winning yesterday no matter what trip. He was beaten by the horses who should've beaten him and finished ahead of two bad horses with a 20 length head start on them and the horse he dueled with who reacted worse than he did. If they ran the race again, he'd be 8-1 or so this time - and he'd still have little chance of winning even if both his jock and Mission Approved's jock consciously tried to avoid another speed duel.

He won his last race before when alone on the lead and if he was left alone this time i think the result is the same.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

He won his last race before when alone on the lead and if he was left alone this time i think the result is the same.

Right because the Grade 3 horses he beat at Golden Gate are comparable to Red Rocks, Curlin, and BTN. . .

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Right because the Grade 3 horses he beat at Golden Gate are comparable to Red Rocks, Curlin, and BTN. . .

Well, if he is alone on the lead, he may not have gone wide throughout and might have been able to relax. Regardless of who was running behind him, it was still a loose on the lead horse going a route of ground. That is dangerous in any circumstance.

In a 7 horse turf race in which two horses run off seems to lead to considerable latitude for the other 5. The probability of getting tightly bunched is lower and the race becomes diff. in terms of traffic. That seems significant. Also determining who will take the lead in the other bunch and what kind of pace to set becomes important. If Red Rocks went at them earlier for fear they would run off and Curlin followed suit, then Better Talk Now may have been there.

Splitting a small field up like that in a turf race seems significant. These huge turf fields where no horse wants the lead... traffic and placement become much bigger factors. Then they all make a giant run and the race becomes tighter more than at any other time barring the start. I think this is why turf races are so attractive for some people. You got a chance with a lesser horse.

I dont do these stats, but I would think that turf races have far fewer even money favorites than dirt fields of the same size, 8 horses and over.

[GenuineRisk]

I'm the first to admit I'm a novice in knowing what to look for before a race, but I didn't think Curlin looked great before the race. Not bad, exactly, but kind of tired. Definitely not the way he looked before the JCGC, when I couldn't take my eyes off of him. He also wasn't walked around the paddock until the very last second, right before Albarado hopped up on him. FGFan tells me Asmussen often leaves his horses in the saddling area until the last second at the Fairgrounds, but before the JCGC last year he was walked a lot. They might have just been trying to keep him cool as it was humid yesterday; I don't know. So, I thought he ran a very good race for a horse that I didn't think looked 100 percent before the race. I guess I'd like to see him run turf one more time before deciding it's not for him.

Other DTers who were there yesterday can and will probably say he looked fine; again, I certainly can't claim to be an expert; it was just my impression.