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  #1  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:03 PM
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Bigsmc Bigsmc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
No show betting in the Proud Spell race.
Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217
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  #2  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.
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  #3  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.
Wow.
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  #4  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Wow.
I am glad you are amazed.
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  #5  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:37 PM
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terrible value / tempting gamble

say the horse has a 90% chance to show
hit% = 90
payout = $2.10
Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers)

a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value
hit% = 25
payout = $15.00
value = 1.88

Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment.


However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money.
For some that would be a tempting Gamble.
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  #6  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:42 PM
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dalakhani dalakhani is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
terrible value / tempting gamble

say the horse has a 90% chance to show
hit% = 90
payout = $2.10
Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers)

a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value
hit% = 25
payout = $15.00
value = 1.88

Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment.


However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money.
For some that would be a tempting Gamble.
And i dont disagree with the math at all IF the horse ONLY had a 90% chance to show. See the point?

There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective.
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  #7  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective.
not really. The most you could even add in Theory is 10 percentage points.

In real life you just don't have enough information to assign a horse 100% hit rate. Not to mention the slew of things that can unexpectedly go wrong.

In real life a "lock" to show isn't going to be any higher than 95%


Even a 95% hit% is only a .9975 Value. Still a losing long-term investment.

You would be hard pressed to find a 95% hit rate for a show wager.


A bad investment / a tempting gamble
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  #8  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.
I know what you said and I know what I posted.
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  #9  
Old 07-06-2008, 01:17 PM
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All this logic aside, I'm guessing this guy could afford to lose the 200k. That's more than I can say about half the folks that dropped $100 at my OTB yesterday.

But let's say you're stupid rich and love horseracing, how would you bet the races that it would mean something to you? Big P6 tickets? Or would you become an owner and drop half a million on a well bred yearling?
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