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#1
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1 - $5,931 2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell 3 - $7,169 4 - $13,217 |
#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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![]() terrible value / tempting gamble
say the horse has a 90% chance to show hit% = 90 payout = $2.10 Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers) a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value hit% = 25 payout = $15.00 value = 1.88 Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment. However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money. For some that would be a tempting Gamble. |
#6
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There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective. |
#7
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![]() In real life you just don't have enough information to assign a horse 100% hit rate. Not to mention the slew of things that can unexpectedly go wrong. In real life a "lock" to show isn't going to be any higher than 95% Even a 95% hit% is only a .9975 Value. Still a losing long-term investment. You would be hard pressed to find a 95% hit rate for a show wager. A bad investment / a tempting gamble |
#8
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#9
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![]() All this logic aside, I'm guessing this guy could afford to lose the 200k. That's more than I can say about half the folks that dropped $100 at my OTB yesterday.
But let's say you're stupid rich and love horseracing, how would you bet the races that it would mean something to you? Big P6 tickets? Or would you become an owner and drop half a million on a well bred yearling? |