Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've seen several VERY controversial DQ's involving bridgejumped horses over the last two years.

Someone bet over 150K to show Nicole's Dream in a small stake at Mountaineer. She won in hand by 8 or 9 in course record time but was DQ'd for a phantom call.

Proud Spell was DQ'd just last week. She needed only to beat two mediocre allowance horses.

Outcashem - who had won something like 12 races in a row - was DQ'd in a hapless starter allowance race at Timonium that led to blockbuster show payoffs.

No show betting in the Proud Spell race.

Outcashem...again, the race was in a bull ring at a fair that runs for about a week. Who in their right mind would bridge jump in such a situation?

I didnt see the Nicole's dream race, but I believe what you say. Its mountaineer. I live near charlestown and stuff like that happens all the time at smaller tracks (although they tend to swallow the whistle a little more at charlestown).

Again, im not saying one should make a living bridge jumping. Im just saying, they can be pretty darn good bets if you pick your spots.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

No show betting in the Proud Spell race.

Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217

Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.

Wow.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wow.

I am glad you are amazed.

[Bobby Fischer]

terrible value / tempting gamble

say the horse has a 90% chance to show
hit% = 90
payout = $2.10
Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers)

a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value
hit% = 25
payout = $15.00
value = 1.88

Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment.


However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money.
For some that would be a tempting Gamble.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

terrible value / tempting gamble

say the horse has a 90% chance to show
hit% = 90
payout = $2.10
Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers)

a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value
hit% = 25
payout = $15.00
value = 1.88

Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment.


However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money.
For some that would be a tempting Gamble.

And i dont disagree with the math at all IF the horse ONLY had a 90% chance to show. See the point?

There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.

I know what you said and I know what I posted.

[PeteMugg]

All this logic aside, I'm guessing this guy could afford to lose the 200k. That's more than I can say about half the folks that dropped $100 at my OTB yesterday.

But let's say you're stupid rich and love horseracing, how would you bet the races that it would mean something to you? Big P6 tickets? Or would you become an owner and drop half a million on a well bred yearling?