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#1
07-02-2008, 10:59 PM
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The winner didn't do much running in her five furlong turf debut in Florida though she did gallop out OK ( which is usually misleading ). Plus, her dam was a severe closing sprinter and predicting her to stretch out successfully was not easy to do. The only way you could realistically have had her in the Pick-4, and this is often a good strategy, was to decide that everyone from the Madam Bling race was mediocre, and thus use ALL the strangers. I used the same two as you. It didn't matter as I also thought the favorite in the 5th was a cinch and didn't like the winner at all. It really didn't matter because I bet next to nothing in the Pick-4.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB 
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#2
07-03-2008, 06:46 AM
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LOL...... the key operative word in the question
was "in advance"... with the benefit of having seen the race run, we often go "of course", but I always enjoy the in-depth analysis of the assembled sages....
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"I got a home equity loan....every year I throw a big party and stick the house with the bill!" Homer Simpson
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#3
07-03-2008, 02:49 PM
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Infield
Our two cents looking at just this thread and the chart of the race where much can be gleaned. The race is for maiden fillies on the lawn... so pedigree is the first place a competent capper looks and this filly was bred by the late John Peace who was a member of the Jockey club and a director for the Breeders cup. His wife Agnes is the owner meaning they did not cull this filly which could lead one to believe she may have a bit of talent. Still on pedigree, this one is an early foal by Came Home and out of a Broad Brush mare that had some talent according to the thread contributors. Most would view this pedigree as STRICTLY middle distance with a strong tilt towards grass. Apparently this one started at GP sprinting on the lawn which we would consider practice and then from the chart ran the last day of May indicating she missed a little time. That race, again according to the thread, was contested on a sloppy surface but; did the race come off the turf ? A circle with an x inside denotes such. If not, it was certainly another prep! We would assume it was six, six and a half or seven furlongs with the longer the better; at least as far as her chances yesterday. As someone posted she would get some condition out of it. So at this point in the handicapping process we have a homebred filly with probable talent, making her third start, stretching again in distance to a trip she is solidly bred for. What is the configuration of the course should be the next question and the chart states that the rail is set at eighteen feet. Few cappers understand the nuances of how the movement affects the dynamics of the race and we'll skip that discussion, but suffice to say after two sprints this fillies connections had to be very pleased with the setting. No matter the merits of the other horses.....none of them have ever won! It certainly seems $30 is a big price. We feel most jockeys in the colony would have won on this filly and disagree with some of the comments posted. BBB
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#4
07-03-2008, 02:52 PM
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#5
07-03-2008, 02:59 PM
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This is bad even for you.....and that's saying something. It might be the most incorrect redboard in the history of redboards. Congratulations......you have outdone yourself......and that is no easy task. Honestly, when you pass away, if they give you an enema they could bury you in a matchbox.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#6
07-03-2008, 03:09 PM
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#7
07-03-2008, 03:11 PM
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__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#8
07-03-2008, 03:22 PM
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And he tossed us an extra bone with his semi-annual reference to portable rail placement! Really, how much more can we ask?
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#9
07-03-2008, 02:59 PM
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Maybe our guys could meet your guys in this thread and discuss some opinions of how rail movement affects race dynamics?  seriously. Would love to hear even some of the basic generalities.
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