FOCUS RACE: 7/2-Churchill 8th

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.

Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there.

There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good.

Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early.

EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level.

Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard.


Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything.

War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters.

I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here.


By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

If your not already on an antibiotic for the tooth. Send me your info and a pharmacy number and I'll call it in for you. Tooth pain is the worst....

Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!

[Rudeboyelvis]

9 Fit for a Fight - on the 30 pt move up off the layoff/barn change - 3 startilingly impressive works and the strong effort 6/11 might signal a bounce to some, but he can also easily lay over this bunch - Best Value
10 The Darp - looks to me as the most logical, I don't mind the outside going 7/8ths, in fact prefer it. His two stakes efforts were commendable performances and I'll gladly toss the poly try. - Most Likely
8 Siena Canyon - Has the win going the distance over the track through some pretty honest fractions in MSW victory
5 EZ Phone Home - Zayat hanger rounds out the exotics.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

pp 8 sierra c winner imo..8 hole also 18 perc..[best post] with trouble


pp 5 easy ph home show me another horse in here that backed up a no cuts back
pp 2 war ruler..capt obv

[Bobby Fischer]

Early Notes

1. Sinister, tardy start, perfect setup, up wide with hard drive Leparoux. Terrible premature ride on Cape Romain. Like that Sinister closed over the keeneland track 2back. + He actually won a race with sterling! May struggle at this class.

2. War Ruler. tossing all but last. A.Smith/Kee/Turf...6fMC <70seconds That is the way you are supposed to enter the stretch! This may be a real race horse. Something I didn't like about his left front. Very minor stride abnormality. 32 days isn't alarming, and i get the feeling that Wilkes has em' pain free, and carefully spotted (he would rest were there an issue). Works give no clues with this one and guess is that in the morning he has been starting slow and finishing with energy. win Contender

3.Coach Ryan. 2nd race under Amoss showed much improvement. Respectable time (95.54). He was much better than his opposition. Borel kind of peeked a nose in at the rail / swung 5 wide behind trafic to easily draw away when clear. I like that Borel is aboard here, and I like that he started in Special weight before the change of hands moved him up. Contender, but you get the feeling that he is simply going to run solid and not spectacular.

4.Niorbara = showed he could run half decent in the war ruler race, and then showed he could do it again next out in a slightly weaker MC.

5. EZ Phone Home - Romans can't get him right. Horse has a ton of speed and good talent. Chavez had it right- if they aren't going to train him, then get him 5 clear entering the stretch and maybe he doesn't stop breathing. LOL @ the exclamation point after "tired" in the bris PPs. wouldn't completely shock if he wins, but you want 8 or 9-1 on this guy and you probably get 9-2 or worse.

6. Dr. Nick - will have to prove he can return with same talent and overcome his problems. Dr Nick must be seeing Dr. Nick and being trained by him. dr nick rides (Hebert up).

7. Knock Out Cat= was so green in his debut. Shied away from rail opening. had to be swung out. Was still much the best. 4 works since and you get the feeling that Asmussen will have him much more relaxed off the pace. Closing today. He has the look of one of those crazy looking greys that absolutely bolt home in the stretch at 6 or 7f. Maybe he hasn't shown his real kick yet, being so green and closer to the pace than he will be today? Expect the increase in maturity but it isn't a guarantee. A mature K.O. Cat may draw off, a green one should be competitive.

8. Sienna Canyon - not a bad horse. Jockey of IamBoomer saw that Sienna Canyon was passing, so he swung out and fouled him. Trainer Baker is hot and this horse has two decent races. Sterling is a bad one, but this guy could go off long odds again and get 3rd or something.

9. Fit For A Fight- hey this bastard isn't by Fit To Fight??, speed horse, a little cheap, fell apart and was all over the lane in 1st try for Nihei/CD

10.The Darp - has sure been in a lot of races that he had no chance to do what he was asked. In the 2 races he was given a reasonable task, he was 2nk and 1st9.25. Still you have to think they were over-excited off the weak maiden company trouncing to enter in the Lecomte. After seeing where they really were and having time to reflect =Maybe they just wanted to have a horse entered in the Risenstar?
but was it really Werner that thought a 2nd try at Keeneland was a good idea? He didn't know by then that 7furlongs on that poly was too much to ask? I wouldn't be surprised if this guy quits today or if he runs a "game" 3rd or 4th. Doesn't look like a win contender to me.

[NoLuvForPletch]

My 2 cents...

1) Sinister - assuming the price is there (and based on most of the comments so far, I'm figuring it will be) I will make him my top selection. Can fire fresh (as seen in his sparkling debut beating 11 home) and is 2-2 over the CD surface. Lastly, he is a half a length shy of being undefeated in 1 turn sprints. There is enough speed signed on to make the only multiple winner in the field a big threat to catch them late. By the way, he is a scary spitting image of his Daddy, who I have a soft spot for since I bet him at Belmont in the BC Juvie.

2) War Ruler - he a tough one to figure as he was able to take advantage of wicked early fractions AND a soft field in his last, while adding blinkers. So, which one was it? Probably a combo of both, and Julien chooses him over the 1. Not a fan of MClm to nw1x but Niobrara's come back victory sells the 50k seller as better than it appears on paper. Has to be kept in the mix.

3) Coach Ryan - Amoss trainee's biggest appeal are the connections. Only beat 4 home in his MClm victory last out and couldn't have had a better trip. Cut back to 7f appealing but the connections will insure an underlay. Leaving out.

4) Niobara - stepped up last time to higher tag and came away with the victory. Would take him over War Ruler in the rematch based on his victory at today's 7f. But still like others more.

5) E Z Phone Home - most seasoned horse has had trouble finding the cameraman since debut maiden breaker at Belmont at a 2YO. Versitale sort can run on the lead, or stalk, but hasn't done his best running when it counts.

6) Dr. Nick - 4th jock in 4th career race. Will be overbet based on his Grade 3 placing 2 back, but his return effort left much to be desired.

7) Knock Out Cat - Assmussen's $410K yearling purchase endured a troubled trip in debut win over track. Short price expected for the runner with the lowest speed figure in the field. Not for me.

8) Siena Canyon - might be the longest shot in the field. Has never been 1st across the finish line and can't find a reason why that will change today.

9) Fit For A Fight - might have been short last time out after 11 month layoff at 50-1. Now asked to go longer today than ever before. Will be forwardly placed but not expecting him to be around late.

10) The Darp - it could be argued his best effort was his 2nd place finish over this track in November as he obviously didn't face much at 4-5 in his maiden breaker. Subsequently faced the likes of Pyro, Z Fortune and Visionaire early in his 3YO campaign. The back to back layoffs are cause for concern, but his class could put him there at the wire.

I'll go with this as my top 4: Sinister, The Darp, Niobrara and War Ruler.

My top 4 picks finished 2nd,3rd,4th and 7th.

Tom Amoss is a horse whisperer.

[ninetoone]

My horse paid $8 to show, that's the best I can do. Unfortunately, I picked him to win

[TheSpyder]

Just saw the results..should have boxed my three choices..$140 wow!

Good work and interesting perspective from all...let's do it again!

Spyder

[TheSpyder]

Very on topic...I'm sitting here after having a tooth pulled today. Not a big deal but the Doctor prescribed 20 pills of Vicodin. Now I would not normally even take them, but I have no plans for the day so I figure why not.

well...

Kicking back with a monster buzz..I think I need to go to rehab cause I like these pills.

anyway..

As far as the race goes, I see it this way:

Too much early speed will make way from off the pace.

1. Knock Out Cat - Don't think he was even asked until he was swung out from rail and should like extra distance
2. The Carp...opps Darp - In spot he should handle although I hear what Chuck said about time off and work pattern
3. Coach Ryan - Impressive last

Originally Posted by docicu3

If your not already on an antibiotic for the tooth. Send me your info and a pharmacy number and I'll call it in for you. Tooth pain is the worst....

Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!