FOCUS RACE: 7/2-Churchill 8th

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I don't know either but here are the pp's...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_115552.pdf

Thank you Gioia...

Originally Posted by eajinabi

What are focus races?

A featured event singled out where a discussion can unfold as to the pace scenario, contenders merits/faults, prospective odds and wagering strategies, etc.. By bringing up one specific event that everyone focuses upon, we could ideally help many better understand handicapping stategies/approaches. This 8th at CD is an ideal opportunity because you've got horses of the same age, with a perfect smattering of running styles, in various form cycles, coming together at the most fair distance there is...

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Can we do anything else to get these guys heads just a lil bit bigger?

Hard to say... But I'll take the 'over'.

What's so good about this race?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

What's so good about this race?

It's a very well-matched field. Should be an interesting betting race.

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's a very well-matched field. Should be an interesting betting race.

It's a very bad field. That's why it's well-matched.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

It's a very bad field. That's why it's well-matched.

It's a N1X. Some here look forward going with upside and some will head for tags. That's part of the point of this. Identifying which are which.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's a N1X. Some here look forward going with upside and some will head for tags. That's part of the point of this. Identifying which are which.

ok, well i guess that answers my question...
so i will just put a race up that i like a lot.

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's a N1X. Some here look forward going with upside and some will head for tags. That's part of the point of this. Identifying which are which.

Half of the field has already been in for a tag. Asmussen's horse is the standout in this race and should be a very short price.

Lots of early speed on paper. 1,2,7,10 are interesting.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Half of the field has already been in for a tag. Asmussen's horse is the standout in this race and should be a very short price.

we agree ?

[DogsUp]

Heck I will give my novice opinion

Sinister - 2-2 at Churchill. 14 pt bump in speed rating from his last race. post 1 is sucking at churchill this meet. not impressed with his works. good trainer and Lep picks the 2 over this one. I dont think there will be enough pace for this horse to close into - PASS

War Ruler - I like Wilkes as a trainer (29%). Cannot post back to back decent speed figs. 2nd place horse from the 5/31 race came back and won. Like the 1, will need a good pace but will not get it - PASS

Coach Ryan - Amoss (40%) is having a great meet. Most consistent speed figs. Should be close to the lead and in good position since he has closers to the inside of him. Shortens up in distance which I think is a good move. Seems to be in good form. Horses from the 5/18 race have come back to do rather well - TOP PICK

Niobrara - Best form of the field. 1 for 1 at the distance. Not a published work since his last race is a bit of a concern. Good speed figs the last two races. Should also get a stalking trip. Prob will get first jump, but I think that Coach Ryan will run him down.

EZ Phone Home - Returns back to a sprint which should be good. Fits with this bunch at this level. Should get the lead or being extremely close. I do not think he will be able to finish - PASS

Dr Nick - Well this is more personal because I lost a few dollars on him in the past. 2nd off the layoff is a good sign. Hebert gets the mount and he isnt having a good meet at all. I think the horse needs another race to show that he is healthy once again - PASS

Knock Out Cat - Bridgmohan has been pretty good the past few weeks. The workouts arent that great. The pace will not be fast enough for KOC to close into. Debut was impressive, but I think the step up might be a little too much - PASS

That is it for now because I am tired. But my pick is the 3 horse.

[parsixfarms]

This looks like a pretty non-descript NW1X allowance. In a race that looks to have a lot of speed, I'd be inclined to look for a closer, but most of those are the horses that just broke their maidens for a tag.

I generally like to avoid the horses that have disappointed in stakes when they drop down to allowance company at a shortish price, but The Darp looks like the most likely winner. Purchased for a solid (for a Proud Citizen) $130,000 as a yearling, he was obviously well regarded from the beginning of his career (broke slow from the rail in a well-bet debut against subsequent SW Eaton's Gift), and he quickly advanced through the maiden ranks. After two failed, two-turn stakes attempts at the Fair Grounds, he ran in a far stronger NW1X in his last, when defeated by the Keeneland-loving, stakes-placed St. Joe. He draws a favorable outside post and should be able to stalk the early leaders under Albarado and pounce when the real running begins.

Of the likely closers, I'd probably take a shot at price with the steadily improving War Ruler. Given the typical Wilkes/Nafzger education in his career debut, he had a wide trip from an outside post in a "live" maiden race at Keeneland in his second career start (runner-up, Cherokee Artist, broke his maiden next out on Derby Day). Throw out a failed try on turf. Wilkes dropped him to $50,000 maiden claimers and added blinkers, and War Ruler responded with a strong close to win going away over next-out winner (and rival Wednesday) Niobara. If the speed collapses, he should be running late at a nice price for a trainer that has had a real strong meet.

Of the others: Sinister has been running in weak starter allowances; Niobara pressed very soft fractions in a maiden claiming 7F last out and faces much tougher task from class and pace perspective; E Z Phone Home's lone win came in an off-the-turf event at Belmont last fall, and while he could hit the board, I wouldn't take a short price on a horse that figures to be part of a strong pace; Dr. Nick was outrun in return and Romans, who has not been setting the world on fire, uses Hebert, not a positive sign; Knock Out Cat has the pedigree and connections to improve but he would need to improve significantly - and at an extended sprint distance - so taking a short price is not warranted; and Siena Canyon and Fit for a Fight look like pace factors (although I could take a shot with the improving Siena Canyon off his line against recent blow-out winner I. M. Boomer).

[MaTH716]

I like War Ruler too, 3rd start on conventional dirt and 2nd with the shades. It looks like there is a lot of speed in the race and I think he could sit off it and wait for the race to fall apart.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thank you Gioia...


A featured event singled out where a discussion can unfold as to the pace scenario, contenders merits/faults, prospective odds and wagering strategies, etc.. By bringing up one specific event that everyone focuses upon, we could ideally help many better understand handicapping stategies/approaches. This 8th at CD is an ideal opportunity because you've got horses of the same age, with a perfect smattering of running styles, in various form cycles, coming together at the most fair distance there is...


Hard to say... But I'll take the 'over'.

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Originally Posted by asudevil

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Not really.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Not really.

I just gotta ask.. wtf is your avatar? A loaf of bread?

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

I just gotta ask.. wtf is your avatar? A loaf of bread?

Toast.

Kids in the Hall get the credit.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Toast.

Kids in the Hall get the credit.

i always liked that show.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.

Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there.

There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good.

Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early.

EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level.

Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard.


Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything.

War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters.

I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here.


By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

See a dentist.

I soldiered through serious nerve pain in my tooth for months that would start every night when I layed down - because I didn't way to pay a dental bill. I finally gave in - and after a root canal or two - I was golden. Brand new.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.

Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there.

There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good.

Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early.

EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level.

Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard.


Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything.

War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters.

I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here.


By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.

If your not already on an antibiotic for the tooth. Send me your info and a pharmacy number and I'll call it in for you. Tooth pain is the worst....

Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!